A place to cache linked articles (think custom and personal wayback machine)
You can not select more than 25 topics Topics must start with a letter or number, can include dashes ('-') and can be up to 35 characters long.

index.html 17KB

123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234
  1. <!doctype html><!-- This is a valid HTML5 document. -->
  2. <!-- Screen readers, SEO, extensions and so on. -->
  3. <html lang="fr">
  4. <!-- Has to be within the first 1024 bytes, hence before the <title>
  5. See: https://www.w3.org/TR/2012/CR-html5-20121217/document-metadata.html#charset -->
  6. <meta charset="utf-8">
  7. <!-- Why no `X-UA-Compatible` meta: https://stackoverflow.com/a/6771584 -->
  8. <!-- The viewport meta is quite crowded and we are responsible for that.
  9. See: https://codepen.io/tigt/post/meta-viewport-for-2015 -->
  10. <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1">
  11. <!-- Required to make a valid HTML5 document. -->
  12. <title>Risk: micromorts, microCOVIDs, and skydiving (archive) — David Larlet</title>
  13. <meta name="description" content="Publication mise en cache pour en conserver une trace.">
  14. <!-- That good ol' feed, subscribe :). -->
  15. <link rel="alternate" type="application/atom+xml" title="Feed" href="/david/log/">
  16. <!-- Generated from https://realfavicongenerator.net/ such a mess. -->
  17. <link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="180x180" href="/static/david/icons2/apple-touch-icon.png">
  18. <link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="32x32" href="/static/david/icons2/favicon-32x32.png">
  19. <link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="16x16" href="/static/david/icons2/favicon-16x16.png">
  20. <link rel="manifest" href="/static/david/icons2/site.webmanifest">
  21. <link rel="mask-icon" href="/static/david/icons2/safari-pinned-tab.svg" color="#07486c">
  22. <link rel="shortcut icon" href="/static/david/icons2/favicon.ico">
  23. <meta name="msapplication-TileColor" content="#f0f0ea">
  24. <meta name="msapplication-config" content="/static/david/icons2/browserconfig.xml">
  25. <meta name="theme-color" content="#f0f0ea">
  26. <!-- Documented, feel free to shoot an email. -->
  27. <link rel="stylesheet" href="/static/david/css/style_2021-01-20.css">
  28. <!-- See https://www.zachleat.com/web/comprehensive-webfonts/ for the trade-off. -->
  29. <link rel="preload" href="/static/david/css/fonts/triplicate_t4_poly_regular.woff2" as="font" type="font/woff2" media="(prefers-color-scheme: light), (prefers-color-scheme: no-preference)" crossorigin>
  30. <link rel="preload" href="/static/david/css/fonts/triplicate_t4_poly_bold.woff2" as="font" type="font/woff2" media="(prefers-color-scheme: light), (prefers-color-scheme: no-preference)" crossorigin>
  31. <link rel="preload" href="/static/david/css/fonts/triplicate_t4_poly_italic.woff2" as="font" type="font/woff2" media="(prefers-color-scheme: light), (prefers-color-scheme: no-preference)" crossorigin>
  32. <link rel="preload" href="/static/david/css/fonts/triplicate_t3_regular.woff2" as="font" type="font/woff2" media="(prefers-color-scheme: dark)" crossorigin>
  33. <link rel="preload" href="/static/david/css/fonts/triplicate_t3_bold.woff2" as="font" type="font/woff2" media="(prefers-color-scheme: dark)" crossorigin>
  34. <link rel="preload" href="/static/david/css/fonts/triplicate_t3_italic.woff2" as="font" type="font/woff2" media="(prefers-color-scheme: dark)" crossorigin>
  35. <script>
  36. function toggleTheme(themeName) {
  37. document.documentElement.classList.toggle(
  38. 'forced-dark',
  39. themeName === 'dark'
  40. )
  41. document.documentElement.classList.toggle(
  42. 'forced-light',
  43. themeName === 'light'
  44. )
  45. }
  46. const selectedTheme = localStorage.getItem('theme')
  47. if (selectedTheme !== 'undefined') {
  48. toggleTheme(selectedTheme)
  49. }
  50. </script>
  51. <meta name="robots" content="noindex, nofollow">
  52. <meta content="origin-when-cross-origin" name="referrer">
  53. <!-- Canonical URL for SEO purposes -->
  54. <link rel="canonical" href="http://interconnected.org/home/2020/09/01/microcovids">
  55. <body class="remarkdown h1-underline h2-underline h3-underline em-underscore hr-center ul-star pre-tick">
  56. <article>
  57. <header>
  58. <h1>Risk: micromorts, microCOVIDs, and skydiving</h1>
  59. </header>
  60. <nav>
  61. <p class="center">
  62. <a href="/david/" title="Aller à l’accueil"><svg class="icon icon-home">
  63. <use xlink:href="/static/david/icons2/symbol-defs.svg#icon-home"></use>
  64. </svg> Accueil</a> •
  65. <a href="http://interconnected.org/home/2020/09/01/microcovids" title="Lien vers le contenu original">Source originale</a>
  66. </p>
  67. </nav>
  68. <hr>
  69. <div class="f5 f4-l measure-wide">
  70. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">There’s a standard way to understand the relative danger of any activity. A <strong>micromort</strong> is <q>a unit of risk defined as one-in-a-million chance of death</q> (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort">Wikipedia</a>). For example:</p>
  71. <ul class="list ph0 ph0-ns bulleted-list">
  72. <li class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">skydiving is 8 micromorts per jump</li>
  73. <li class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">running a marathon: 26 micromorts</li>
  74. <li class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">1 micromort: walking 17 miles, or driving 230 miles</li>
  75. </ul>
  76. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">Generally being alive averages out at 24 micromorts/day.</p>
  77. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">Assuming a 1% mortality risk, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/well/live/putting-the-risk-of-covid-19-in-perspective.html">being infected with Covid-19 is 10,000 micromorts</a>.</p>
  78. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">But what about the risk of catching Covid in the first place?</p>
  79. <hr class="h1 xh2-ns w1 xw2-ns ml4 mv4 bb bw1 b--white">
  80. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">The <a href="https://www.microcovid.org">microCOVID project</a>: <q>1 microCOVID = a one-in-a-million chance of getting COVID.</q></p>
  81. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">From the <a href="https://www.microcovid.org/paper">white paper</a>:</p>
  82. <blockquote cite="https://www.microcovid.org/paper/2-riskiness" class="quoteback bl bw1 pl2 b--light-red ml0 italic i" data-author="The microCOVID Project" data-title='We measure the riskiness of interactions in "microCOVIDs"'>
  83. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">For example, if you live in a region where about 1 in 1,000 people currently has COVID, then you could calculate based on studies of other indoor interactions … that meeting a friend for coffee indoors has about a 1 in 17,000 chance of giving you COVID. Such small numbers are hard to think about, so we can use microCOVIDs instead. Your coffee date would be about 60 microCOVIDs. …</p>
  84. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">One benefit of using microCOVIDs is that you can straightforwardly add up microCOVIDs to estimate your risk over longer periods of time.</p>
  85. </blockquote>
  86. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70"><strong><a href="https://www.microcovid.org/calculator">There’s a calculator for regular activities</a></strong> (try it!) from which I can see that</p>
  87. <ul class="list ph0 ph0-ns bulleted-list">
  88. <li class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">going out to buy groceries is 20 microCOVIDs</li>
  89. <li class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">having a small party, indoors, with no masks is 3,000 microCOVIDs</li>
  90. <li class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">a 30 minute commute on the train is 100-200 microCOVIDs</li>
  91. </ul>
  92. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">The calculator takes into account the virus prevalence where you live.</p>
  93. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">So I might decide that I have a risk-tolerance of 10,000 microCOVIDs per year (i.e. a 1% chance of contracting Covid per year). That is, I really don’t want to get Covid, but I’m also not prepared to never, ever leave the house.</p>
  94. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">That gives me a budget of a little under 200 microCOVIDs per week. And I can measure my activities against that.</p>
  95. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">(I’m not sure, from the calculator, how to account for household risk: do we have this budget between us, or each?)</p>
  96. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">I find these kind of calculators useful to educate my intuition.</p>
  97. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">For example, an outdoor restaurant is only 30 microCOVIDs vs 500 indoors. A significant difference! Especially against my weekly budget of 200. Commuting via public transport is out if I want to do anything else. Useful to know.</p>
  98. <hr class="h1 xh2-ns w1 xw2-ns ml4 mv4 bb bw1 b--white">
  99. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">Back in May, I was speculating about <a href="/home/2020/05/12/pandemic_mirror_worlds">realtime, hyperlocal pandemic forecasts</a>:</p>
  100. <blockquote class="bl bw1 pl2 b--light-red ml0 italic i">
  101. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">Maybe your phone could track your location and give you a live exposure number over the day, like a badge? It’s 2pm and you’re at 40 co-rads today. We recommend you leave before rush hour and take this 20 co-rad route home, also WASH YOUR HANDS.</p>
  102. </blockquote>
  103. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">And this microCOVID calculator is the foundation of this. If you could automatically plug in realtime regional prevalence figures, you’d be able to make a risk assessment like <em>short journey on the bus</em> vs <em>slow journey walking.</em></p>
  104. <hr class="h1 xh2-ns w1 xw2-ns ml4 mv4 bb bw1 b--white">
  105. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">The <em>framing</em> of the microCOVID project gives me pause: it’s about personal risk.</p>
  106. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">But there are three distinct reasons why I follow the government lockdown advice:</p>
  107. <ul class="list ph0 ph0-ns bulleted-list">
  108. <li class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70"><strong>risk to my personal/household,</strong> which is the focus of the microCOVID project</li>
  109. <li class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70"><strong>risk to others I might meet.</strong> I don’t want to accidentally infect my mum, for example</li>
  110. <li class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70"><strong>society</strong> a.k.a. public health – we beat this pandemic through collective action, by bringing down <strong><em>Re</em></strong>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-the-r-number-still-useful-138542">effective reproduction number</a>.</li>
  111. </ul>
  112. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70"><em>Re</em> isn’t a measure of prevalence. It’s a measure of how easily the virus spreads. It spreads more easily when people are meeting lots of other people without masks; it spreads less easily when social contact is reduced.</p>
  113. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">If <em>Re</em> is below 1, prevalence decreases; above 1, and it goes up.</p>
  114. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">I think of society as a whole having an <em>Re</em> budget. The figure I heard, at the beginning of lockdown, was that we needed to reduce in-person social interactions by 75%. I assume that social interactions are the key factor in <em>Re</em> (or at least, were believed to be at the time). Other factors might be: % people wearing masks; proportion of unique vs repeat people encountered.</p>
  115. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">There are some people we <em>need</em> to spend against the <em>Re</em> budget: health workers, anyone involved in the grocery supply chain, and other <a href="/home/2020/04/09/neutron_bombs">key workers</a>. I am happy to reduce my in-person interactions by, say, 90% if that means that key workers need to reduce by only 60%.</p>
  116. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">Is there a translation between microCOVIDs and <em>Re?</em> I don’t know. Maybe +100 microCOVIDs/week/person in a region with a population density of such-and-such contributes +0.1 to <em>Re.</em></p>
  117. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">I’d love to have that connection between personal activity and social good.</p>
  118. <hr class="h1 xh2-ns w1 xw2-ns ml4 mv4 bb bw1 b--white">
  119. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">This pandemic has given us a whole new vocabulary around virality that wasn’t commonplace before. I wonder how we’ll use it in the future?</p>
  120. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">How many micro-RTs does one of my tweets have, where 1 micro-RT is a one in a million chance of it going viral?</p>
  121. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">Can we measure the effective reproduction rate of a given social media influencer?</p>
  122. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">And so on.</p>
  123. <hr class="h1 xh2-ns w1 xw2-ns ml4 mv4 bb bw1 b--white">
  124. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">I mentioned skydiving at the top of this post <em>(8 micromorts).</em> Of course, there are also externalities. And that reminds me of something else I read:</p>
  125. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">In the UK, skydiving is a common way to raise money for charity.</p>
  126. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">BUT…</p>
  127. <blockquote class="bl bw1 pl2 b--light-red ml0 italic i">
  128. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">The injury rate in charity-parachutists was 11% at an average cost of 3751 Pounds per casualty. Sixty-three percent of casualties who were charity-parachutists required hospital admission, representing a serious injury rate of 7%, at an average cost of 5781 Pounds per patient. The amount raised per person for charity was 30 Pounds. <strong>Each pound raised for charity cost the NHS 13.75 Pounds in return.</strong></p>
  129. </blockquote>
  130. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">Conclusion: <q>Parachuting for charity costs more money than it raises.</q></p>
  131. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70"><em>Here’s the paper:</em></p>
  132. <p class="measure f5 f4-l lh-copy black-70">Lee CT, Williams P, Hadden WA. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10476298/">Parachuting for charity: is it worth the money? A 5-year audit of parachute injuries in Tayside and the cost to the NHS.</a> <em>Injury.</em> 1999;30(4):283-287. </p>
  133. </div>
  134. </article>
  135. <hr>
  136. <footer>
  137. <p>
  138. <a href="/david/" title="Aller à l’accueil"><svg class="icon icon-home">
  139. <use xlink:href="/static/david/icons2/symbol-defs.svg#icon-home"></use>
  140. </svg> Accueil</a> •
  141. <a href="/david/log/" title="Accès au flux RSS"><svg class="icon icon-rss2">
  142. <use xlink:href="/static/david/icons2/symbol-defs.svg#icon-rss2"></use>
  143. </svg> RSS</a> •
  144. <a href="http://larlet.com" title="Go to my English profile" data-instant><svg class="icon icon-user-tie">
  145. <use xlink:href="/static/david/icons2/symbol-defs.svg#icon-user-tie"></use>
  146. </svg> Pro</a> •
  147. <a href="mailto:david%40larlet.fr" title="Envoyer un courriel"><svg class="icon icon-mail">
  148. <use xlink:href="/static/david/icons2/symbol-defs.svg#icon-mail"></use>
  149. </svg> Email</a> •
  150. <abbr class="nowrap" title="Hébergeur : Alwaysdata, 62 rue Tiquetonne 75002 Paris, +33184162340"><svg class="icon icon-hammer2">
  151. <use xlink:href="/static/david/icons2/symbol-defs.svg#icon-hammer2"></use>
  152. </svg> Légal</abbr>
  153. </p>
  154. <template id="theme-selector">
  155. <form>
  156. <fieldset>
  157. <legend><svg class="icon icon-brightness-contrast">
  158. <use xlink:href="/static/david/icons2/symbol-defs.svg#icon-brightness-contrast"></use>
  159. </svg> Thème</legend>
  160. <label>
  161. <input type="radio" value="auto" name="chosen-color-scheme" checked> Auto
  162. </label>
  163. <label>
  164. <input type="radio" value="dark" name="chosen-color-scheme"> Foncé
  165. </label>
  166. <label>
  167. <input type="radio" value="light" name="chosen-color-scheme"> Clair
  168. </label>
  169. </fieldset>
  170. </form>
  171. </template>
  172. </footer>
  173. <script>
  174. function loadThemeForm(templateName) {
  175. const themeSelectorTemplate = document.querySelector(templateName)
  176. const form = themeSelectorTemplate.content.firstElementChild
  177. themeSelectorTemplate.replaceWith(form)
  178. form.addEventListener('change', (e) => {
  179. const chosenColorScheme = e.target.value
  180. localStorage.setItem('theme', chosenColorScheme)
  181. toggleTheme(chosenColorScheme)
  182. })
  183. const selectedTheme = localStorage.getItem('theme')
  184. if (selectedTheme && selectedTheme !== 'undefined') {
  185. form.querySelector(`[value="${selectedTheme}"]`).checked = true
  186. }
  187. }
  188. const prefersColorSchemeDark = '(prefers-color-scheme: dark)'
  189. window.addEventListener('load', () => {
  190. let hasDarkRules = false
  191. for (const styleSheet of Array.from(document.styleSheets)) {
  192. let mediaRules = []
  193. for (const cssRule of styleSheet.cssRules) {
  194. if (cssRule.type !== CSSRule.MEDIA_RULE) {
  195. continue
  196. }
  197. // WARNING: Safari does not have/supports `conditionText`.
  198. if (cssRule.conditionText) {
  199. if (cssRule.conditionText !== prefersColorSchemeDark) {
  200. continue
  201. }
  202. } else {
  203. if (cssRule.cssText.startsWith(prefersColorSchemeDark)) {
  204. continue
  205. }
  206. }
  207. mediaRules = mediaRules.concat(Array.from(cssRule.cssRules))
  208. }
  209. // WARNING: do not try to insert a Rule to a styleSheet you are
  210. // currently iterating on, otherwise the browser will be stuck
  211. // in a infinite loop…
  212. for (const mediaRule of mediaRules) {
  213. styleSheet.insertRule(mediaRule.cssText)
  214. hasDarkRules = true
  215. }
  216. }
  217. if (hasDarkRules) {
  218. loadThemeForm('#theme-selector')
  219. }
  220. })
  221. </script>
  222. </body>
  223. </html>