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| <p><strong>Apple</strong> and the satellite-based broadband service <strong>Starlink</strong> each recently took steps to address new research into the potential security and privacy implications of how their services geo-locate devices. Researchers from the <strong>University of Maryland</strong> say they relied on publicly available data from Apple to track the location of billions of devices globally — including non-Apple devices like Starlink systems — and found they could use this data to monitor the destruction of Gaza, as well as the movements and in many cases identities of Russian and Ukrainian troops.</p> | |||
| <p>At issue is the way that Apple collects and publicly shares information about the precise location of all Wi-Fi access points seen by its devices. Apple collects this location data to give Apple devices a crowdsourced, low-power alternative to constantly requesting global positioning system (GPS) coordinates.</p> | |||
| <p>Both Apple and<strong> Google</strong> operate their own <strong>Wi-Fi-based Positioning Systems</strong> (WPS) that obtain certain hardware identifiers from all wireless access points that come within range of their mobile devices. Both record the <strong>Media Access Control</strong> (MAC) address that a Wi-FI access point uses, known as a <strong>Basic Service Set Identifier</strong> or <strong>BSSID</strong>.</p> | |||
| <p>Periodically, Apple and Google mobile devices will forward their locations — by querying GPS and/or by using cellular towers as landmarks — along with any nearby BSSIDs. This combination of data allows Apple and Google devices to figure out where they are within a few feet or meters, and it’s what allows your mobile phone to continue displaying your planned route even when the device can’t get a fix on GPS.</p> | |||
| <p>With Google’s WPS, a wireless device submits a list of nearby Wi-Fi access point BSSIDs and their signal strengths — via an <a href="https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/security/api/what-is-an-api/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application programming interface</a> (API) request to Google — whose WPS responds with the device’s computed position. Google’s WPS requires at least two BSSIDs to calculate a device’s approximate position.</p> | |||
| <p>Apple’s WPS also accepts a list of nearby BSSIDs, but instead of computing the device’s location based off the set of observed access points and their received signal strengths and then reporting that result to the user, Apple’s API <em>will return the geolocations of up to 400 hundred more BSSIDs that are nearby the one requested</em>. It then uses approximately eight of those BSSIDs to work out the user’s location based on known landmarks.</p> | |||
| <p>In essence, Google’s WPS computes the user’s location and shares it with the device. Apple’s WPS gives its devices a large enough amount of data about the location of known access points in the area that the devices can do that estimation on their own.</p> | |||
| <p>That’s according to two researchers at the University of Maryland, who theorized they could use the verbosity of Apple’s API to map the movement of individual devices into and out of virtually any defined area of the world. The UMD pair said they spent a month early in their research continuously querying the API, asking it for the location of more than a billion BSSIDs generated at random.</p> | |||
| <p>They learned that while only about three million of those randomly generated BSSIDs were known to Apple’s Wi-Fi geolocation API, <em>Apple also returned an additional 488 million BSSID locations already stored in its WPS from other lookups</em>.</p> | |||
| <p><strong>UMD Associate Professor David Levin</strong> and Ph.D student <strong>Erik Rye</strong> found they could mostly avoid requesting unallocated BSSIDs by consulting the list of BSSID ranges assigned to specific device manufacturers. <a href="https://standards-oui.ieee.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">That list</a> is maintained by the <strong>Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers</strong> (IEEE), which is also sponsoring <a href="https://sp2024.ieee-security.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the privacy and security conference</a> where Rye is slated to present the UMD research later today.</p> | |||
| <p>Plotting the locations returned by Apple’s WPS between November 2022 and November 2023, Levin and Rye saw they had a near global view of the locations tied to more than two billion Wi-Fi access points. The map showed geolocated access points in nearly every corner of the globe, apart from almost the entirety of China, vast stretches of desert wilderness in central Australia and Africa, and deep in the rainforests of South America.</p> | |||
| <div id="attachment_67580" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/bssidglobal.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-67580" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-67580" src="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/bssidglobal.png" alt="" srcset="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/bssidglobal.png 907w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/bssidglobal-768x365.png 768w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/bssidglobal-782x372.png 782w" sizes="(max-width: 749px) 100vw, 749px"></a><p id="caption-attachment-67580" class="wp-caption-text">A “heatmap” of BSSIDs the UMD team said they discovered by guessing randomly at BSSIDs.</p></div> | |||
| <p>The researchers said that by zeroing in on or “geofencing” other smaller regions indexed by Apple’s location API, they could monitor how Wi-Fi access points moved over time. Why might that be a big deal? They found that by geofencing active conflict zones in Ukraine, they were able to determine the location and movement of Starlink devices used by both Ukrainian and Russian forces.</p> | |||
| <p>The reason they were able to do that is that each Starlink terminal — the dish and associated hardware that allows a Starlink customer to receive Internet service from a constellation of orbiting Starlink satellites — includes its own Wi-Fi access point, whose location is going to be automatically indexed by any nearby Apple devices that have location services enabled.</p> | |||
| <div id="attachment_67582" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/heatmap-ua.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-67582" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-67582" src="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/heatmap-ua.png" alt="" srcset="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/heatmap-ua.png 941w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/heatmap-ua-768x376.png 768w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/heatmap-ua-782x383.png 782w" sizes="(max-width: 751px) 100vw, 751px"></a><p id="caption-attachment-67582" class="wp-caption-text">A heatmap of Starlink routers in Ukraine. Image: UMD.</p></div> | |||
| <p>The University of Maryland team geo-fenced various conflict zones in Ukraine, and identified at least 3,722 Starlink terminals geolocated in Ukraine.</p> | |||
| <p>“We find what appear to be personal devices being brought by military personnel into war zones, exposing pre-deployment sites and military positions,” the researchers wrote. “Our results also show individuals who have left Ukraine to a wide range of countries, validating public reports of where Ukrainian refugees have resettled.”</p> | |||
| <p>In an interview with KrebsOnSecurity, the UMD team said they found that in addition to exposing Russian troop pre-deployment sites, the location data made it easy to see where devices in contested regions originated from.</p> | |||
| <p>“This includes residential addresses throughout the world,” Levin said. “We even believe we can identify people who have joined the Ukraine Foreign Legion.”</p> | |||
| <div id="attachment_67576" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/starlinkbssideur.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-67576" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-67576" src="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/starlinkbssideur.png" alt=""></a><p id="caption-attachment-67576" class="wp-caption-text">A simplified map of where BSSIDs that enter the Donbas and Crimea regions of Ukraine originate. Image: UMD.</p></div> | |||
| <p>Levin and Rye said they shared their findings with Starlink in March 2024, and that Starlink told them the company began shipping software updates in 2023 that force Starlink access points to randomize their BSSIDs.<span id="more-67551"></span></p> | |||
| <p>Starlink’s parent SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment. But the researchers shared a graphic they said was created from their Starlink BSSID monitoring data, which shows that just in the past month there was a substantial drop in the number of Starlink devices that were geo-locatable using Apple’s API.</p> | |||
| <div id="attachment_67587" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/geolocated-starlink-bssids.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-67587" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-67587" src="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/geolocated-starlink-bssids.png" alt="" srcset="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/geolocated-starlink-bssids.png 1218w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/geolocated-starlink-bssids-768x474.png 768w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/geolocated-starlink-bssids-782x482.png 782w" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px"></a><p id="caption-attachment-67587" class="wp-caption-text">UMD researchers shared this graphic, which shows their ability to monitor the location and movement of Starlink devices by BSSID dropped precipitously in the past month.</p></div> | |||
| <p>They also shared a written statement they received from Starlink, which acknowledged that Starlink User Terminal routers originally used a static BSSID/MAC:</p> | |||
| <blockquote><p>“In early 2023 a software update was released that randomized the main router BSSID. Subsequent software releases have included randomization of the BSSID of WiFi repeaters associated with the main router. Software updates that include the repeater randomization functionality are currently being deployed fleet-wide on a region-by-region basis. We believe the data outlined in your paper is based on Starlink main routers and or repeaters that were queried prior to receiving these randomization updates.”</p></blockquote> | |||
| <p>The researchers also focused their geofencing on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, and were able to track the migration and disappearance of devices throughout the Gaza Strip as Israeli forces cut power to the country and bombing campaigns knocked out key infrastructure.</p> | |||
| <p>“As time progressed, the number of Gazan BSSIDs that are geolocatable continued to decline,” they wrote. “By the end of the month, only 28% of the original BSSIDs were still found in the Apple WPS.”</p> | |||
| <p>Apple did not respond to requests for comment. But in late March 2024, Apple <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240328071851/https://support.apple.com/en-us/102515" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quietly tweaked its privacy policy</a>, allowing people to opt out of having the location of their wireless access points collected and shared by Apple — by appending “_nomap” to the end of the Wi-Fi access point’s name (SSID). Adding “_nomap” to your Wi-Fi network name <a href="https://support.google.com/maps/answer/1725632?hl=en#zippy=%2Chow-do-i-opt-my-access-point-out-of-google-location-services" target="_blank" rel="noopener">also blocks Google from indexing its location</a>.</p> | |||
| <div id="attachment_67574" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-67574" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class=" wp-image-67574" src="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/apple-bssids.png" alt="" srcset="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/apple-bssids.png 841w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/apple-bssids-768x384.png 768w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/apple-bssids-782x391.png 782w" sizes="(max-width: 749px) 100vw, 749px"><p id="caption-attachment-67574" class="wp-caption-text">Apple updated its privacy and location services policy in March 2024 to allow people to opt out of having their Wi-Fi access point indexed by its service, by appending “_nomap” to the network’s name.</p></div> | |||
| <p>Rye said Apple’s response addressed the most depressing aspect of their research: That there was previously no way for anyone to opt out of this data collection.</p> | |||
| <p>“You may not have Apple products, but if you have an access point and someone near you owns an Apple device, your BSSID will be in [Apple’s] database,” he said. “What’s important to note here is that every access point is being tracked, without opting in, whether they run an Apple device or not. Only after we disclosed this to Apple have they added the ability for people to opt out.”</p> | |||
| <p>The researchers said they hope Apple will consider additional safeguards, such as proactive ways to limit abuses of its location API.</p> | |||
| <p>“It’s a good first step,” Levin said of Apple’s privacy update in March. “But this data represents a really serious privacy vulnerability. I would hope Apple would put further restrictions on the use of its API, like rate-limiting these queries to keep people from accumulating massive amounts of data like we did.”</p> | |||
| <p>The UMD researchers said they omitted certain details from their study to protect the users they were able to track, noting that the methods they used could present risks for those fleeing abusive relationships or stalkers.</p> | |||
| <p>“We observe routers move between cities and countries, potentially representing their owner’s relocation or a business transaction between an old and new owner,” they wrote. “While there is not necessarily a 1-to-1 relationship between Wi-Fi routers and users, home routers typically only have several. If these users are vulnerable populations, such as those fleeing intimate partner violence or a stalker, their router simply being online can disclose their new location.”</p> | |||
| <p>The researchers said Wi-Fi access points that can be created using a mobile device’s built-in cellular modem do not create a location privacy risk for their users because mobile phone hotspots will choose a random BSSID when activated.</p> | |||
| <p>“Modern Android and iOS devices will choose a random BSSID when you go into hotspot mode,” he said. “Hotspots are already implementing the strongest recommendations for privacy protections. It’s other types of devices that don’t do that.”</p> | |||
| <p>For example, they discovered that certain commonly used travel routers compound the potential privacy risks.</p> | |||
| <p>“Because travel routers are frequently used on campers or boats, we see a significant number of them move between campgrounds, RV parks, and marinas,” the UMD duo wrote. “They are used by vacationers who move between residential dwellings and hotels. We have evidence of their use by military members as they deploy from their homes and bases to war zones.”</p> | |||
| <p>A copy of the UMD research is available <a href="https://www.cs.umd.edu/~dml/papers/wifi-surveillance-sp24.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (PDF).</p> | |||
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| title: Why Your Wi-Fi Router Doubles as an Apple AirTag | |||
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| description: Apple and the satellite-based broadband service Starlink each recently took steps to address new research into the potential security and privacy implications of how their services geo-locate devices. Researchers from the University of Maryland say they relied on publicly available… | |||
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| <p><strong>Apple</strong> and the satellite-based broadband service <strong>Starlink</strong> each recently took steps to address new research into the potential security and privacy implications of how their services geo-locate devices. Researchers from the <strong>University of Maryland</strong> say they relied on publicly available data from Apple to track the location of billions of devices globally — including non-Apple devices like Starlink systems — and found they could use this data to monitor the destruction of Gaza, as well as the movements and in many cases identities of Russian and Ukrainian troops.</p> | |||
| <p>At issue is the way that Apple collects and publicly shares information about the precise location of all Wi-Fi access points seen by its devices. Apple collects this location data to give Apple devices a crowdsourced, low-power alternative to constantly requesting global positioning system (GPS) coordinates.</p> | |||
| <p>Both Apple and<strong> Google</strong> operate their own <strong>Wi-Fi-based Positioning Systems</strong> (WPS) that obtain certain hardware identifiers from all wireless access points that come within range of their mobile devices. Both record the <strong>Media Access Control</strong> (MAC) address that a Wi-FI access point uses, known as a <strong>Basic Service Set Identifier</strong> or <strong>BSSID</strong>.</p> | |||
| <p>Periodically, Apple and Google mobile devices will forward their locations — by querying GPS and/or by using cellular towers as landmarks — along with any nearby BSSIDs. This combination of data allows Apple and Google devices to figure out where they are within a few feet or meters, and it’s what allows your mobile phone to continue displaying your planned route even when the device can’t get a fix on GPS.</p> | |||
| <p>With Google’s WPS, a wireless device submits a list of nearby Wi-Fi access point BSSIDs and their signal strengths — via an <a href="https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/security/api/what-is-an-api/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application programming interface</a> (API) request to Google — whose WPS responds with the device’s computed position. Google’s WPS requires at least two BSSIDs to calculate a device’s approximate position.</p> | |||
| <p>Apple’s WPS also accepts a list of nearby BSSIDs, but instead of computing the device’s location based off the set of observed access points and their received signal strengths and then reporting that result to the user, Apple’s API <em>will return the geolocations of up to 400 hundred more BSSIDs that are nearby the one requested</em>. It then uses approximately eight of those BSSIDs to work out the user’s location based on known landmarks.</p> | |||
| <p>In essence, Google’s WPS computes the user’s location and shares it with the device. Apple’s WPS gives its devices a large enough amount of data about the location of known access points in the area that the devices can do that estimation on their own.</p> | |||
| <p>That’s according to two researchers at the University of Maryland, who theorized they could use the verbosity of Apple’s API to map the movement of individual devices into and out of virtually any defined area of the world. The UMD pair said they spent a month early in their research continuously querying the API, asking it for the location of more than a billion BSSIDs generated at random.</p> | |||
| <p>They learned that while only about three million of those randomly generated BSSIDs were known to Apple’s Wi-Fi geolocation API, <em>Apple also returned an additional 488 million BSSID locations already stored in its WPS from other lookups</em>.</p> | |||
| <p><strong>UMD Associate Professor David Levin</strong> and Ph.D student <strong>Erik Rye</strong> found they could mostly avoid requesting unallocated BSSIDs by consulting the list of BSSID ranges assigned to specific device manufacturers. <a href="https://standards-oui.ieee.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">That list</a> is maintained by the <strong>Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers</strong> (IEEE), which is also sponsoring <a href="https://sp2024.ieee-security.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the privacy and security conference</a> where Rye is slated to present the UMD research later today.</p> | |||
| <p>Plotting the locations returned by Apple’s WPS between November 2022 and November 2023, Levin and Rye saw they had a near global view of the locations tied to more than two billion Wi-Fi access points. The map showed geolocated access points in nearly every corner of the globe, apart from almost the entirety of China, vast stretches of desert wilderness in central Australia and Africa, and deep in the rainforests of South America.</p> | |||
| <div id="attachment_67580" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/bssidglobal.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-67580" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-67580" src="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/bssidglobal.png" alt="" srcset="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/bssidglobal.png 907w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/bssidglobal-768x365.png 768w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/bssidglobal-782x372.png 782w" sizes="(max-width: 749px) 100vw, 749px"></a><p id="caption-attachment-67580" class="wp-caption-text">A “heatmap” of BSSIDs the UMD team said they discovered by guessing randomly at BSSIDs.</p></div> | |||
| <p>The researchers said that by zeroing in on or “geofencing” other smaller regions indexed by Apple’s location API, they could monitor how Wi-Fi access points moved over time. Why might that be a big deal? They found that by geofencing active conflict zones in Ukraine, they were able to determine the location and movement of Starlink devices used by both Ukrainian and Russian forces.</p> | |||
| <p>The reason they were able to do that is that each Starlink terminal — the dish and associated hardware that allows a Starlink customer to receive Internet service from a constellation of orbiting Starlink satellites — includes its own Wi-Fi access point, whose location is going to be automatically indexed by any nearby Apple devices that have location services enabled.</p> | |||
| <div id="attachment_67582" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/heatmap-ua.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-67582" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-67582" src="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/heatmap-ua.png" alt="" srcset="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/heatmap-ua.png 941w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/heatmap-ua-768x376.png 768w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/heatmap-ua-782x383.png 782w" sizes="(max-width: 751px) 100vw, 751px"></a><p id="caption-attachment-67582" class="wp-caption-text">A heatmap of Starlink routers in Ukraine. Image: UMD.</p></div> | |||
| <p>The University of Maryland team geo-fenced various conflict zones in Ukraine, and identified at least 3,722 Starlink terminals geolocated in Ukraine.</p> | |||
| <p>“We find what appear to be personal devices being brought by military personnel into war zones, exposing pre-deployment sites and military positions,” the researchers wrote. “Our results also show individuals who have left Ukraine to a wide range of countries, validating public reports of where Ukrainian refugees have resettled.”</p> | |||
| <p>In an interview with KrebsOnSecurity, the UMD team said they found that in addition to exposing Russian troop pre-deployment sites, the location data made it easy to see where devices in contested regions originated from.</p> | |||
| <p>“This includes residential addresses throughout the world,” Levin said. “We even believe we can identify people who have joined the Ukraine Foreign Legion.”</p> | |||
| <div id="attachment_67576" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/starlinkbssideur.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-67576" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-67576" src="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/starlinkbssideur.png" alt=""></a><p id="caption-attachment-67576" class="wp-caption-text">A simplified map of where BSSIDs that enter the Donbas and Crimea regions of Ukraine originate. Image: UMD.</p></div> | |||
| <p>Levin and Rye said they shared their findings with Starlink in March 2024, and that Starlink told them the company began shipping software updates in 2023 that force Starlink access points to randomize their BSSIDs.<span id="more-67551"></span></p> | |||
| <p>Starlink’s parent SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment. But the researchers shared a graphic they said was created from their Starlink BSSID monitoring data, which shows that just in the past month there was a substantial drop in the number of Starlink devices that were geo-locatable using Apple’s API.</p> | |||
| <div id="attachment_67587" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/geolocated-starlink-bssids.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-67587" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-67587" src="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/geolocated-starlink-bssids.png" alt="" srcset="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/geolocated-starlink-bssids.png 1218w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/geolocated-starlink-bssids-768x474.png 768w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/geolocated-starlink-bssids-782x482.png 782w" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px"></a><p id="caption-attachment-67587" class="wp-caption-text">UMD researchers shared this graphic, which shows their ability to monitor the location and movement of Starlink devices by BSSID dropped precipitously in the past month.</p></div> | |||
| <p>They also shared a written statement they received from Starlink, which acknowledged that Starlink User Terminal routers originally used a static BSSID/MAC:</p> | |||
| <blockquote><p>“In early 2023 a software update was released that randomized the main router BSSID. Subsequent software releases have included randomization of the BSSID of WiFi repeaters associated with the main router. Software updates that include the repeater randomization functionality are currently being deployed fleet-wide on a region-by-region basis. We believe the data outlined in your paper is based on Starlink main routers and or repeaters that were queried prior to receiving these randomization updates.”</p></blockquote> | |||
| <p>The researchers also focused their geofencing on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, and were able to track the migration and disappearance of devices throughout the Gaza Strip as Israeli forces cut power to the country and bombing campaigns knocked out key infrastructure.</p> | |||
| <p>“As time progressed, the number of Gazan BSSIDs that are geolocatable continued to decline,” they wrote. “By the end of the month, only 28% of the original BSSIDs were still found in the Apple WPS.”</p> | |||
| <p>Apple did not respond to requests for comment. But in late March 2024, Apple <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240328071851/https://support.apple.com/en-us/102515" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quietly tweaked its privacy policy</a>, allowing people to opt out of having the location of their wireless access points collected and shared by Apple — by appending “_nomap” to the end of the Wi-Fi access point’s name (SSID). Adding “_nomap” to your Wi-Fi network name <a href="https://support.google.com/maps/answer/1725632?hl=en#zippy=%2Chow-do-i-opt-my-access-point-out-of-google-location-services" target="_blank" rel="noopener">also blocks Google from indexing its location</a>.</p> | |||
| <div id="attachment_67574" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-67574" decoding="async" loading="lazy" class=" wp-image-67574" src="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/apple-bssids.png" alt="" srcset="https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/apple-bssids.png 841w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/apple-bssids-768x384.png 768w, https://krebsonsecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/apple-bssids-782x391.png 782w" sizes="(max-width: 749px) 100vw, 749px"><p id="caption-attachment-67574" class="wp-caption-text">Apple updated its privacy and location services policy in March 2024 to allow people to opt out of having their Wi-Fi access point indexed by its service, by appending “_nomap” to the network’s name.</p></div> | |||
| <p>Rye said Apple’s response addressed the most depressing aspect of their research: That there was previously no way for anyone to opt out of this data collection.</p> | |||
| <p>“You may not have Apple products, but if you have an access point and someone near you owns an Apple device, your BSSID will be in [Apple’s] database,” he said. “What’s important to note here is that every access point is being tracked, without opting in, whether they run an Apple device or not. Only after we disclosed this to Apple have they added the ability for people to opt out.”</p> | |||
| <p>The researchers said they hope Apple will consider additional safeguards, such as proactive ways to limit abuses of its location API.</p> | |||
| <p>“It’s a good first step,” Levin said of Apple’s privacy update in March. “But this data represents a really serious privacy vulnerability. I would hope Apple would put further restrictions on the use of its API, like rate-limiting these queries to keep people from accumulating massive amounts of data like we did.”</p> | |||
| <p>The UMD researchers said they omitted certain details from their study to protect the users they were able to track, noting that the methods they used could present risks for those fleeing abusive relationships or stalkers.</p> | |||
| <p>“We observe routers move between cities and countries, potentially representing their owner’s relocation or a business transaction between an old and new owner,” they wrote. “While there is not necessarily a 1-to-1 relationship between Wi-Fi routers and users, home routers typically only have several. If these users are vulnerable populations, such as those fleeing intimate partner violence or a stalker, their router simply being online can disclose their new location.”</p> | |||
| <p>The researchers said Wi-Fi access points that can be created using a mobile device’s built-in cellular modem do not create a location privacy risk for their users because mobile phone hotspots will choose a random BSSID when activated.</p> | |||
| <p>“Modern Android and iOS devices will choose a random BSSID when you go into hotspot mode,” he said. “Hotspots are already implementing the strongest recommendations for privacy protections. It’s other types of devices that don’t do that.”</p> | |||
| <p>For example, they discovered that certain commonly used travel routers compound the potential privacy risks.</p> | |||
| <p>“Because travel routers are frequently used on campers or boats, we see a significant number of them move between campgrounds, RV parks, and marinas,” the UMD duo wrote. “They are used by vacationers who move between residential dwellings and hotels. We have evidence of their use by military members as they deploy from their homes and bases to war zones.”</p> | |||
| <p>A copy of the UMD research is available <a href="https://www.cs.umd.edu/~dml/papers/wifi-surveillance-sp24.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (PDF).</p> | |||
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| <div data-journey-body="longform-article" class="article-body-content article-body longform-body css-yqyv4u et2g3wt6"><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="0" class="body-dropcap css-1qvnr24 emevuu60">In college I studied philosophy and dreamed of becoming a mountaineer. To fund my explorations, I got a job at the Satin Doll. Sometimes stripping was the best job in the world, but at crucial moments, it was also the worst. I loved ripping off my top and rocking out to Janis Joplin. But I hated the hustle, the way people pretended to be something they weren’t. It was a rotten kind of intimacy, and I got lost in it. I graduated from college, and shortly before my 23rd birthday, I quit the sex industry for good. When I left, I promised myself I would never lose me again.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="1" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Afterward, I got rid of my things, packed up my bicycle, and booked a one-way ticket to Alaska. My Big Plan was to bike south until life made sense again. Strangely, this actually worked. After 3,500 miles of pedaling, I rolled into San Francisco, stronger and happier. My bleach-blonde hair was finally growing out.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="3" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I moved to Colorado and got a job on a forestry crew. My boss, Sarah, taught me how to sharpen a chainsaw, slice through trees like butter. Down they went, crack and thump. One night I met a guy at a party and asked if he’d hitchhike across Mexico. Two months later we had our thumbs out on the road south of the border. Freedom was the back of a pickup truck, wind in our hair, smell of asphalt and countryside. All the possibilities, open.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="4" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The kindness of strangers carried us through Mexico and into Central America. Scott was shy and steady, and followed wherever I led. In return, his warmth gave me a sense of security that I didn’t have on my own. After a year of wandering, we met a couple who had started an ecovillage in Costa Rica. They asked us to partner with them in exchange for a profit share and co-ownership. Every winding road seemed to have led straight to that one heartfelt, handshake deal.</p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-12" data-node-id="5" class="embed"><div size="medium" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-medium embed css-eyzghf e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=768:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=980:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=980:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=980:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=980:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">Hiking in Cape Breton National Park near the Cabot Trail, a popular bike destination in Nova Scotia. </p></div></div></div></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="6" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The Branch* ecovillage was a wild dream come to life. We lived on the edge of a remote jungle and hosted educational residencies for students from around the globe. Experts on natural building, solar energy, permaculture, and community development lived with us and taught in our jungle classrooms. People smiled and laughed and helped each other. We built houses out of mud and bamboo, and held hands around the dinner table. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="7" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Scott and I worked long, hard days; learned how to build things, manage people, run a business. There was a feeling that we could do anything, that we could reinvent the world and ourselves and create something no one had ever created before. We developed new programs, became instructors, planted trees. In the evenings Scott and I wandered around our orchard, imagining how big the canopy would be when we were old. <br></p> | |||
| <section data-embed="pullquote" data-lazy-id="P0-13" data-node-id="8" class="embed"><blockquote class="css-3u9muv e1pe3zr91"><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-dd784d eagam8p0"></span><blockquote class="css-1hihk6d e1pe3zr90">There are so many ways to lose yourself, to get lost, to be lost. And sometimes the process of losing is also the process of finding.</blockquote><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-1axj8y8 eagam8p1"></span></blockquote></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="9" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">After five years, the business was doing great but there was still no profit share or co-ownership. Then one night the owner came to my room and leaned over my bed, demanding a kiss. In that moment I knew two things at once: that he did not have my best interests in mind, and that maybe he never had. I told him, over and over, to go home to his wife and family. Finally he left, and I lay in bed looking at the ceiling. Nothing had happened, but everything had changed. I heard a sound and realized I was shaking so hard my teeth were clicking.</p><div data-ad-exclude="(min-width: 90rem)" data-embed="embed-product" data-node-id="10" size="small" class="size-small align-left embed css-1bsfgxp e1ydkxnk0"><p id="product-b7e1cc39-d0c3-4270-bea3-328e8d72a1f8" class="css-17pp2fn e1ydkxnk1"></p><div size="small" class="size-small align-left css-60ezry ebgq4gw4"><p class="top css-hep5d8 ebgq4gw2"> | |||
| <h2 class="css-1w6wviv e1bddzxd0">Get Unlimited Access to Bicycling.com</h2></p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://join.bicycling.com/pubs/HR/BIC/BIC1_Plans.jsp?cds_page_id=251593&cds_mag_code=BIC&cds_tracking_code=edit-product-finding-wild-reindeer" aria-label="Sign Up Now! for Get Unlimited Access to Bicycling.com" data-href="https://join.bicycling.com/pubs/HR/BIC/BIC1_Plans.jsp?cds_page_id=251593&cds_mag_code=BIC&cds_tracking_code=edit-product-finding-wild-reindeer" data-product-url="https://join.bicycling.com/pubs/HR/BIC/BIC1_Plans.jsp?cds_page_id=251593&cds_mag_code=BIC&cds_tracking_code=edit-product-finding-wild-reindeer" data-affiliate="false" data-affiliate-network data-vars-ga-call-to-action="Sign Up Now!" data-vars-ga-media-role data-vars-ga-media-type="Single Product Embed" data-vars-ga-outbound-link="https://join.bicycling.com/pubs/HR/BIC/BIC1_Plans.jsp?cds_page_id=251593&cds_mag_code=BIC&cds_tracking_code=edit-product-finding-wild-reindeer" data-vars-ga-product-id="b7e1cc39-d0c3-4270-bea3-328e8d72a1f8" data-vars-ga-product-price="$40.00" data-vars-ga-product-retailer-id="8479106c-8a7a-4271-89c4-942c5668f6e4" data-vars-ga-product-sem3-category="Bankruptcy" data-vars-ga-link-treatment="(not set) | (not set)" data-vars-ga-sku="251593" data-vars-ga-magento-tracking="1" class="product-image-link ebgq4gw0 e1b8bpvs0 css-15xslai e1c1bym14"></a><p size="small" class="css-y6pcxk ebgq4gw1"></p></div></div><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="11" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">There are so many ways to lose yourself, to get lost, to be lost. And sometimes the process of losing is also the process of finding. Finding the edges of where you begin, and where other people start. Finding cracks in foundations of thought and identity. I have always loved men and my relationships with men more than I have loved myself. I have relied on men’s perspectives to define me and measure my worth. I have wanted to be what they wanted, and the failure of those desires has always been devastating. In some ways my work as a stripper had accentuated those feelings; but mostly, it had just exposed them. The Branch exposed them even more.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="12" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">My beautiful, radical ecovillage was not as progressive as I had imagined. And as more time passed, I saw things I had not seen before. Women were funneled into service roles and assistantship positions. Men in leadership expected sexual access to female students and interns. People cheated and lied, and power flowed in certain directions. In those pre-#MeToo days, there was no common language to explain what I was experiencing. Even when people believed what was happening, they did not seem to believe that it mattered. It crushed me from the inside out. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="13" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">More years passed, and I became sad, and sick. Strange pains gnawed at my stomach, and my thoughts grew thicker, darker. I had invested the best part of who I was into the Branch, and my faith in these people was indistinguishable from my own identity. It was impossible to extract myself, but I did not feel like myself, either. I had survived depression before, but I could not imagine surviving it again.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="14" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">One day I went to the outhouse and sat there, alone. I could see a curtain closing over my mind; I could see a future in which I could not see myself at all. In a moment of lucidity, I decided to write myself a letter. I would tell my future self everything I knew about living. A time capsule; a message in a bottle; a last resort. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="pullquote" data-lazy-id="P0-14" data-node-id="15" class="embed"><blockquote class="css-3u9muv e1pe3zr91"><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-dd784d eagam8p0"></span><blockquote class="css-1hihk6d e1pe3zr90">I decided to write myself a letter. I would tell my future self everything I knew about living. A time capsule; a message in a bottle; a last resort. </blockquote><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-1axj8y8 eagam8p1"></span></blockquote></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="16" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">But when I looked down at my blank paper, I realized, slowly, that I had nothing left to say. Something about me had become blank, too. Finally a random thought skittered up through my brain and I scribbled it down. I stuffed the paper in an old bottle, left it on the windowsill, and walked away.<br></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="17" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Several months passed, and my darkness deepened. Sometimes when I walked home at night I reached up to my throat, feeling for a lump. It felt like something was closing, strangling. Finally I told Scott I needed help. Maybe he did not know how, or maybe he did not want to. He drifted farther away.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="18" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Then one day I was cleaning and picked up the old bottle. My past self had crossed space and time to send me a message. But it wasn’t just a message, it was a mission. When nothing made sense, I had invented a mission that was equally nonsensical. The joke was so funny that it finally made me laugh. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="19" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">In my short, scribbled script, I had written just one sentence: <em>Find the wild reindeer.</em></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="20" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Soon afterward, I needed surgery for a torn ligament in my knee. I flew back to my parents’ house in Rhode Island and spent four months in bed, watching my leg atrophy into a little stick. I did not want to be there, or anywhere. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="21" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I kept the old bottle on a table by my bed. Now and then I took out the message and held it in my hands. I began to wonder. What did I have to lose? Ten years ago, I had biked until life made sense again. I started looking at maps. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-15" data-node-id="22" class="embed"><div size="large" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-large embed css-5mh6xd e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=980:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=1200:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=1200:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=2048:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=2048:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-1gccgwy e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">A wild campsite on the north shore of the Saint Lawrence, near Sept-Iles, Quebec.</p></div></div></div></section> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-16" data-node-id="23" class="embed"><div size="small" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-small embed css-1d4uvkk e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="wild reindeer" title="wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=320:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=480:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><p class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">.</span></figcaption></p></div></div></section> <p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="25" class="body-dropcap css-1qvnr24 emevuu60">My parents agreed to drive me to a forest on the Gaspé Peninsula, in eastern Quebec, and leave me there. I had thought it would be a fun way for them to participate in my bike trip. But as the car drew farther from Rhode Island, their voices grew more strained. The night before we arrived, my father lay flat in a hotel bed, nursing a migraine, and my mother knit her hands together and wailed, “Why do you want to bike over mountains?” Leaving their depressed, debilitated daughter alone on a bike in the forest was not, actually, their idea of fun. But I know it was an act of tremendous love. I needed this.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="26" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Quebec in June was cold, windy, and very wet. My left leg was a string bean, my mind still thick with darkness. But I got on my bike and kept pressing the pedals. Twenty miles the first day. Thirty the next. Forty. The bike spun me into a rhythm, and as the days passed, I could feel the darkness slough off me into the wind. Thoughts and feelings rose out of my body and dissolved in my wake. I became lighter and freer. The days were gray and sometimes I was scared, but the rhythm of the road pulled me closer to a me I finally recognized. I began to feel strong again. I was going to find those reindeer.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="27" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Within a week I noticed a small hole on my arm, and a little white worm poked out, wiggled around, and went down again. I smiled. After living for years in the jungle, I’d seen plenty of bot flies but I’d never had one myself. This one must have hatched in me in Costa Rica. Bot fly larvae grow under your skin and feed on your flesh, periodically poking out a breathing tube. Mine lived in the center of my upper arm, so I got to watch his little worm-tube pop out of me as I biked. His name was Spike, I decided, and we were friends. I spent many long hours singing him lullabies as I pedaled into the wind.<br></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="28" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">After a meandering 800 miles I stopped in a parking lot in Montreal and waited for Scott. When he got out of the car I recognized the breadth of his shoulders, the way his long hair hung slack in a ponytail. We hugged and his hair smelled like cereal, the way it always did. This was my person, the man I loved, my adventure partner of almost a decade. The last few years had been hard on us, and I wanted this trip to remind him of who we were. I hoped he would love the road as much as I did.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="29" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We sorted our gear, left his car at a friend’s house, and started biking north. The next day we stopped at a gas station, and I went into the bathroom and looked down at my arm. I liked Spike but he bothered me sometimes. He was, after all, feeding on me. I pressed down on my skin and watched as the hole widened and a thick white larval head came out. I kept pushing until Spike slid out and lay wiggling on top of my arm. He was about half an inch long. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="30" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I walked outside with Spike in my palm. I was relieved to be rid of him but also sad. We had come so far together, just the two of us. I hesitated, said a few words of farewell, and then dropped him on the sidewalk and squished him with my shoe. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-17" data-node-id="31" class="embed"><div size="large" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-large embed css-5mh6xd e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=980:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=1200:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=1200:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=2048:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=2048:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-1gccgwy e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">Near Kegashka, Quebec, before boarding the ferry to Newfoundland and Labrador.</p></div></div></div></section> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-18" data-node-id="32" class="embed"><div size="small" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-small embed css-1d4uvkk e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="wild reindeer" title="wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=320:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=480:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><p class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">.</span></figcaption></p></div></div></section> <p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="34" class="body-dropcap css-1qvnr24 emevuu60"> As Scott and I pedaled north, the traffic dwindled and forests morphed into wild, impenetrable bogs. We camped on top of boulders and cooked dinners over a fire. This was the land of wildflowers and wolves, of wide skies and open road. And this was the freedom I remembered, wind in our hair, all the possibilities, open. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="35" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">But our years at the Branch had changed us in ways I wasn’t ready to face. The same boys’ club that had crushed me also seemed to have expanded Scott’s confidence. And those two outcomes felt related in a way that I knew, but also denied.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="36" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">One day we took a rocky track and my bike slid a little. “You could really use some bike lessons,” Scott snickered. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="37" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">My eyes narrowed. His words did not make sense. Years ago I had taken Scott on his first bike trip, taught him how to pack a pannier, change a flat. I planned our routes, handed him gear lists, helped him build out his kit. I had ridden thousands of miles before I ever started taking him with me. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="38" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">After that, the comments came in a steady stream. I was bad at biking. I didn’t know what I was doing. He couldn’t wait for someone to teach me how to pedal. And each day, I asked him to stop. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="39" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We decided to take the most remote route possible, a long stretch of pavement and dirt hugging the St. Lawrence River all the way to its mouth at the sea. There, almost a thousand miles from Montreal, the road would end completely and we’d board a ferry for Newfoundland and Labrador. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-19" data-node-id="40" class="embed"><div size="small" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-small embed css-1d4uvkk e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=320:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=480:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=640:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=640:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=640:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=640:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">We gathered wild blueberries (shown), raspberries, blackberries, and cloudberries along the way. In some places it was easy to gather several pounds of berries at once.</p></div></div></div></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="41" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The miles flew by, but the farther I went, the more my confidence dimmed. I had come so far, and gotten so much stronger. But I no longer felt strong. An invisible string tightened inside of me like a ratchet strap. I loved Scott and he seemed to love me, but he did not make me feel good about myself. And as we pedaled across those stark, beautiful boglands, I began to realize that this had consequence. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="42" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">On the day we were going to reach the end of the road, I pulled over at an outlook, and my bike skidded a little on a patch of sand. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="43" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Scott rolled up next to me. “Nice skills,” he scoffed. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="44" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The contempt in his voice filled the air so completely, there was no space for anything else. And finally, the string that was tightening inside me reached its limit and could go no further. I got off my bike and turned to face him. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="45" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I closed my eyes and screamed, “<em>YOU! HAVE! TO! STOPPPPPPPPPPP!</em>” </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="46" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">When I opened my eyes Scott was staring at me, his water bottle frozen in hand halfway to his mouth. Neither of us said anything else. We started riding, and within a few hours, we entered a small town. Then the dirt stopped in front of the sea. We had reached the end of the road.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="47" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We turned down a trail toward the water, and finally Scott broke the silence. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="48" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“I’m sorry,” he said. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="49" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“For what?” I asked.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="50" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“I know I keep bringing you down.” His voice was quiet, sincere. “I just don’t know how to stop.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="51" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We spent the rest of the day waiting for the ferry. I gathered wild berries and Scott napped under a picnic table. I woke him up and posed him in pictures with me, his arm around my shoulder, my face leaning against his neck. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="52" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I had built a home with this person. We had climbed mountains at dawn in half a dozen countries. When he was sick I had scooped vomit out of his mouth, and when my leg was broken he had held me up to pee. We had written love letters in two languages. It didn’t matter who either of us had become. What mattered was a past that I loved, and a future I still believed in. I thought that if he saw the photos later, he would see what I saw. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-20" data-node-id="53" class="embed"><div size="large" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-large embed css-5mh6xd e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="search for wild reindeer" title="search for wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=980:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=1200:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=1200:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=2048:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=2048:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-1gccgwy e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">Cooking moose meat burritos at a wild campsite, near Sept-Iles, Quebec.</p></div></div></div></section> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-21" data-node-id="54" class="embed"><div size="small" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-small embed css-1d4uvkk e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="wild reindeer" title="wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=320:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=480:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><p class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">.</span></figcaption></p></div></div></section> <p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="56" class="body-dropcap css-1qvnr24 emevuu60">By the time we reached Newfoundland, I had lost hope of finding the wild reindeer. Perhaps the message had meant something else or perhaps it had never meant anything after all. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="57" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">One day we pulled into a seaside campsite near Port Au Choix in northwestern Newfoundland. As we left the registration office, the guy turned to us.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="58" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“Oh, and the reindeer are by the lighthouse now, if you want to see them. Been there all week.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="59" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I felt so excited, my stomach hurt. I went to the bathroom and put on all my most colorful clothes. If we were finally going to find these reindeer, I wanted to show up in style. I dressed myself in all the colors of the rainbow. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="60" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The lighthouse lay at the end of a wide expanse of uninhabited tundra. We biked toward it, side by side, sea breeze in our faces. But the string inside of me tightened again and I didn’t know why.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="61" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“I can’t believe this is it,” I said to Scott, pedaling. “We’re finally going to find them.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="62" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“Yeah, what is it with you and these reindeer?” he asked.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="63" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I glanced at him. “Oh because, you remember.” I paused between each sentence, breathing in and out. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="64" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“Last year when I wanted to die.” Breath. “I wrote myself that message in the bottle.” Breath. “Find the wild reindeer.” Breath. “And now these are the reindeer.” </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="65" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“What?” He said, turning his head toward me, then away. “You never said that. You never told me you wanted to die.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="66" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“Of course I did.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="67" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“No, you didn’t.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="68" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We kept pedaling, the two of us side by side. And something about who I was left me then. Something inside my heart rose up and exited out the top of my head and disappeared into the sky and never came back. If he didn’t know I had wanted to die, then what did he know? I was alone on this journey. And no matter how far we pedaled together, I would still be alone. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="69" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The lighthouse drew closer and closer. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="70" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“Look,” Scott whispered, slowing down. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-22" data-node-id="71" class="embed"><div size="large" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-large embed css-5mh6xd e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=980:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=1200:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=1200:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=2048:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=2048:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-1gccgwy e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">Finding the wild reindeer near Port au Choix in northwestern Newfoundland.</p></div></div></div></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="72" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">In the middle of the road was a brown dot. We pedaled forward and the dot took shape. It had four spindly legs, a big broad nose, and two little antlers. At a hundred feet we stopped and watched, and the creature stared back at us, unperturbed. It turned and ambled off into the tundra. And there on the hillside was the whole herd. <br></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="73" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Scott got back on his bike and headed toward the lighthouse. I walked my bike to the side of the road, took off my helmet, and slowly crawled into the bushes. The tundra smelled fresh and earthy, and my hands sank into thick mats of dry moss. I edged slowly toward the herd, then lay on my stomach, watching and smiling. Little calves shook their heads and tottered on new legs. Reindeer with huge antlers lazed on the ground and nibbled at bushes. When a doe nipped at a raspberry bush, I stretched my neck toward a raspberry and nibbled it too. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="74" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I had wondered for so long what this moment would be like, what would happen when I finally found the wild reindeer. I had thought maybe some Big Life Lesson would fall from the heavens and I would cry until nothing was left of me. I had been sure that if I got here, everything would mean something.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="75" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">But instead, lying in the bog with the wild reindeer, I just felt peaceful. I tasted the tartness of the raspberry on my tongue. Felt wisps of wind brush the scent of wildflowers past my nose. Watched the reindeer twitch their ears, calm in the sun. And I lay there with them because I wanted to be there. I had come a long way to be alive in this moment. It was beautiful to be so fully alive.</p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-23" data-node-id="76" class="embed"><div size="large" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-large embed css-5mh6xd e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=980:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=1200:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=1200:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=2048:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=2048:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><p class="css-1gccgwy e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption></p></div></div></section> | |||
| <section data-embed="pullquote" data-lazy-id="P0-24" data-node-id="77" class="embed"><blockquote class="css-3u9muv e1pe3zr91"><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-dd784d eagam8p0"></span><blockquote class="css-1hihk6d e1pe3zr90">I had come a long way to be alive in this moment. It was beautiful to be so fully alive.</blockquote><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-1axj8y8 eagam8p1"></span></blockquote></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="78" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We continued on to New Brunswick, where we camped one last night together on a cliff overlooking the Bay of Fundy. From here Scott would bike to the bus station, and eventually fly back to Costa Rica. I’d bike back to my parents’ house in Rhode Island, and then fly to meet him.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="79" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">In the morning Scott packed up his panniers, and I started to cry. It was a big, bawling cry. I cried because I loved him. I loved him because of all our miles together, and also because of who he was. There was something in Scott that was rare and wonderful, that dreamed big and worked hard and loved deep. I cried because he was leaving, or maybe because part of me knew he had already left.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="80" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">And then Scott looked at me and started to laugh. As I listened to his laughter, a visceral understanding rose from my stomach and landed in my brain. In that moment I knew something that I could no longer prevent myself from knowing. That the person I loved got bigger when I got smaller. That he could not stop bringing me down, because bringing me down was what brought him up. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="81" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">He cared about me, and everything wonderful about him was true. But this other part of him was true, too. I stopped crying and became very still. We kissed goodbye and I watched his bike disappear over the hill. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-25" data-node-id="82" class="embed"><div size="medium" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-medium embed css-eyzghf e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=768:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=980:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=980:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=980:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=980:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">Walking along the shore at the Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick. </p></div></div></div></section> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-26" data-node-id="83" class="embed"><div size="small" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-small embed css-1d4uvkk e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="wild reindeer" title="wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=320:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=480:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><p class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">.</span></figcaption></p></div></div></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="84" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60"> <br></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="85" class="body-dropcap css-1qvnr24 emevuu60">I set my course for Rhode Island, but as the road turned south into the U.S., I had the feeling I was going in the wrong direction. Injury and rehab had bought me time away from the Branch, but I was still expected to return. Yet the more I pedaled, the less I wanted to get there. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="86" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Finally in northern Maine I set up camp by a stream and let myself fall apart. Everything that had tightened inside of me finally came undone, and as the tears poured out of me, something else flowed out, too. It was a deep and uncontainable gratitude. I had lived and loved and some things had worked out and others hadn’t and I was grateful for all of it. With this gratitude I finally wrote my resignation from the Branch. The owners had still not legalized our shares in the business, and no one knew if they ever would. I was 34 years old, and had invested eight years there. I would leave behind my home, my job, my business, and my community. Maybe even my relationship. But I would walk away with the most valuable thing I had put in: myself.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="87" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">A few hundred miles later, I crossed the border into Rhode Island. I passed my old elementary school and turned into my parents’ driveway. I stood in the yard and looked at the house with its vinyl siding, the unruly garden, the old oak tree. Everything was so familiar. And I had returned, pedal by pedal, after finding the wild reindeer.<br></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="88" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I had gone on this journey for some reason, and as the months passed, that reason became clear. Finding the wild reindeer taught me that when hope is lost, you can create it. That life is too short to let anyone else own your truth. And that you can break and still be unbreakable. </p></div> | |||
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| @@ -0,0 +1,27 @@ | |||
| title: In Search of the Wild Reindeer | |||
| url: https://www.bicycling.com/rides/a34466128/search-for-the-wild-reindeer/ | |||
| hash_url: 49b61c702d03a23ba3e0801bdaa3cb07 | |||
| archive_date: 2024-05-24 | |||
| og_image: https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.753xh;0,0.247xh&resize=1200:* | |||
| description: When her life fell apart, Laura Killingbeck went on an epic bike journey to find wild reindeer in Labrador. | |||
| favicon: https://www.bicycling.com/_assets/design-tokens/bicycling/static/images/favicon.94f0fb3.ico | |||
| language: en_US | |||
| <div data-journey-body="longform-article" class="article-body-content article-body longform-body css-yqyv4u et2g3wt6"><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="0" class="body-dropcap css-1qvnr24 emevuu60">In college I studied philosophy and dreamed of becoming a mountaineer. To fund my explorations, I got a job at the Satin Doll. Sometimes stripping was the best job in the world, but at crucial moments, it was also the worst. I loved ripping off my top and rocking out to Janis Joplin. But I hated the hustle, the way people pretended to be something they weren’t. It was a rotten kind of intimacy, and I got lost in it. I graduated from college, and shortly before my 23rd birthday, I quit the sex industry for good. When I left, I promised myself I would never lose me again.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="1" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Afterward, I got rid of my things, packed up my bicycle, and booked a one-way ticket to Alaska. My Big Plan was to bike south until life made sense again. Strangely, this actually worked. After 3,500 miles of pedaling, I rolled into San Francisco, stronger and happier. My bleach-blonde hair was finally growing out.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="3" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I moved to Colorado and got a job on a forestry crew. My boss, Sarah, taught me how to sharpen a chainsaw, slice through trees like butter. Down they went, crack and thump. One night I met a guy at a party and asked if he’d hitchhike across Mexico. Two months later we had our thumbs out on the road south of the border. Freedom was the back of a pickup truck, wind in our hair, smell of asphalt and countryside. All the possibilities, open.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="4" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The kindness of strangers carried us through Mexico and into Central America. Scott was shy and steady, and followed wherever I led. In return, his warmth gave me a sense of security that I didn’t have on my own. After a year of wandering, we met a couple who had started an ecovillage in Costa Rica. They asked us to partner with them in exchange for a profit share and co-ownership. Every winding road seemed to have led straight to that one heartfelt, handshake deal.</p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-12" data-node-id="5" class="embed"><div size="medium" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-medium embed css-eyzghf e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=768:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=980:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=980:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=980:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-002-1606849566.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.109xw,0&resize=980:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">Hiking in Cape Breton National Park near the Cabot Trail, a popular bike destination in Nova Scotia. </p></div></div></div></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="6" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The Branch* ecovillage was a wild dream come to life. We lived on the edge of a remote jungle and hosted educational residencies for students from around the globe. Experts on natural building, solar energy, permaculture, and community development lived with us and taught in our jungle classrooms. People smiled and laughed and helped each other. We built houses out of mud and bamboo, and held hands around the dinner table. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="7" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Scott and I worked long, hard days; learned how to build things, manage people, run a business. There was a feeling that we could do anything, that we could reinvent the world and ourselves and create something no one had ever created before. We developed new programs, became instructors, planted trees. In the evenings Scott and I wandered around our orchard, imagining how big the canopy would be when we were old. <br></p> | |||
| <section data-embed="pullquote" data-lazy-id="P0-13" data-node-id="8" class="embed"><blockquote class="css-3u9muv e1pe3zr91"><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-dd784d eagam8p0"></span><blockquote class="css-1hihk6d e1pe3zr90">There are so many ways to lose yourself, to get lost, to be lost. And sometimes the process of losing is also the process of finding.</blockquote><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-1axj8y8 eagam8p1"></span></blockquote></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="9" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">After five years, the business was doing great but there was still no profit share or co-ownership. Then one night the owner came to my room and leaned over my bed, demanding a kiss. In that moment I knew two things at once: that he did not have my best interests in mind, and that maybe he never had. I told him, over and over, to go home to his wife and family. Finally he left, and I lay in bed looking at the ceiling. Nothing had happened, but everything had changed. I heard a sound and realized I was shaking so hard my teeth were clicking.</p><div data-ad-exclude="(min-width: 90rem)" data-embed="embed-product" data-node-id="10" size="small" class="size-small align-left embed css-1bsfgxp e1ydkxnk0"><p id="product-b7e1cc39-d0c3-4270-bea3-328e8d72a1f8" class="css-17pp2fn e1ydkxnk1"></p><div size="small" class="size-small align-left css-60ezry ebgq4gw4"><p class="top css-hep5d8 ebgq4gw2"> | |||
| <h2 class="css-1w6wviv e1bddzxd0">Get Unlimited Access to Bicycling.com</h2></p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://join.bicycling.com/pubs/HR/BIC/BIC1_Plans.jsp?cds_page_id=251593&cds_mag_code=BIC&cds_tracking_code=edit-product-finding-wild-reindeer" aria-label="Sign Up Now! for Get Unlimited Access to Bicycling.com" data-href="https://join.bicycling.com/pubs/HR/BIC/BIC1_Plans.jsp?cds_page_id=251593&cds_mag_code=BIC&cds_tracking_code=edit-product-finding-wild-reindeer" data-product-url="https://join.bicycling.com/pubs/HR/BIC/BIC1_Plans.jsp?cds_page_id=251593&cds_mag_code=BIC&cds_tracking_code=edit-product-finding-wild-reindeer" data-affiliate="false" data-affiliate-network data-vars-ga-call-to-action="Sign Up Now!" data-vars-ga-media-role data-vars-ga-media-type="Single Product Embed" data-vars-ga-outbound-link="https://join.bicycling.com/pubs/HR/BIC/BIC1_Plans.jsp?cds_page_id=251593&cds_mag_code=BIC&cds_tracking_code=edit-product-finding-wild-reindeer" data-vars-ga-product-id="b7e1cc39-d0c3-4270-bea3-328e8d72a1f8" data-vars-ga-product-price="$40.00" data-vars-ga-product-retailer-id="8479106c-8a7a-4271-89c4-942c5668f6e4" data-vars-ga-product-sem3-category="Bankruptcy" data-vars-ga-link-treatment="(not set) | (not set)" data-vars-ga-sku="251593" data-vars-ga-magento-tracking="1" class="product-image-link ebgq4gw0 e1b8bpvs0 css-15xslai e1c1bym14"></a><p size="small" class="css-y6pcxk ebgq4gw1"></p></div></div><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="11" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">There are so many ways to lose yourself, to get lost, to be lost. And sometimes the process of losing is also the process of finding. Finding the edges of where you begin, and where other people start. Finding cracks in foundations of thought and identity. I have always loved men and my relationships with men more than I have loved myself. I have relied on men’s perspectives to define me and measure my worth. I have wanted to be what they wanted, and the failure of those desires has always been devastating. In some ways my work as a stripper had accentuated those feelings; but mostly, it had just exposed them. The Branch exposed them even more.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="12" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">My beautiful, radical ecovillage was not as progressive as I had imagined. And as more time passed, I saw things I had not seen before. Women were funneled into service roles and assistantship positions. Men in leadership expected sexual access to female students and interns. People cheated and lied, and power flowed in certain directions. In those pre-#MeToo days, there was no common language to explain what I was experiencing. Even when people believed what was happening, they did not seem to believe that it mattered. It crushed me from the inside out. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="13" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">More years passed, and I became sad, and sick. Strange pains gnawed at my stomach, and my thoughts grew thicker, darker. I had invested the best part of who I was into the Branch, and my faith in these people was indistinguishable from my own identity. It was impossible to extract myself, but I did not feel like myself, either. I had survived depression before, but I could not imagine surviving it again.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="14" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">One day I went to the outhouse and sat there, alone. I could see a curtain closing over my mind; I could see a future in which I could not see myself at all. In a moment of lucidity, I decided to write myself a letter. I would tell my future self everything I knew about living. A time capsule; a message in a bottle; a last resort. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="pullquote" data-lazy-id="P0-14" data-node-id="15" class="embed"><blockquote class="css-3u9muv e1pe3zr91"><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-dd784d eagam8p0"></span><blockquote class="css-1hihk6d e1pe3zr90">I decided to write myself a letter. I would tell my future self everything I knew about living. A time capsule; a message in a bottle; a last resort. </blockquote><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-1axj8y8 eagam8p1"></span></blockquote></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="16" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">But when I looked down at my blank paper, I realized, slowly, that I had nothing left to say. Something about me had become blank, too. Finally a random thought skittered up through my brain and I scribbled it down. I stuffed the paper in an old bottle, left it on the windowsill, and walked away.<br></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="17" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Several months passed, and my darkness deepened. Sometimes when I walked home at night I reached up to my throat, feeling for a lump. It felt like something was closing, strangling. Finally I told Scott I needed help. Maybe he did not know how, or maybe he did not want to. He drifted farther away.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="18" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Then one day I was cleaning and picked up the old bottle. My past self had crossed space and time to send me a message. But it wasn’t just a message, it was a mission. When nothing made sense, I had invented a mission that was equally nonsensical. The joke was so funny that it finally made me laugh. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="19" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">In my short, scribbled script, I had written just one sentence: <em>Find the wild reindeer.</em></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="20" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Soon afterward, I needed surgery for a torn ligament in my knee. I flew back to my parents’ house in Rhode Island and spent four months in bed, watching my leg atrophy into a little stick. I did not want to be there, or anywhere. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="21" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I kept the old bottle on a table by my bed. Now and then I took out the message and held it in my hands. I began to wonder. What did I have to lose? Ten years ago, I had biked until life made sense again. I started looking at maps. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-15" data-node-id="22" class="embed"><div size="large" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-large embed css-5mh6xd e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=980:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=1200:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=1200:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=2048:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-004-1606849561.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.153xh&resize=2048:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-1gccgwy e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">A wild campsite on the north shore of the Saint Lawrence, near Sept-Iles, Quebec.</p></div></div></div></section> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-16" data-node-id="23" class="embed"><div size="small" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-small embed css-1d4uvkk e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="wild reindeer" title="wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=320:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=480:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><p class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">.</span></figcaption></p></div></div></section> <p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="25" class="body-dropcap css-1qvnr24 emevuu60">My parents agreed to drive me to a forest on the Gaspé Peninsula, in eastern Quebec, and leave me there. I had thought it would be a fun way for them to participate in my bike trip. But as the car drew farther from Rhode Island, their voices grew more strained. The night before we arrived, my father lay flat in a hotel bed, nursing a migraine, and my mother knit her hands together and wailed, “Why do you want to bike over mountains?” Leaving their depressed, debilitated daughter alone on a bike in the forest was not, actually, their idea of fun. But I know it was an act of tremendous love. I needed this.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="26" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Quebec in June was cold, windy, and very wet. My left leg was a string bean, my mind still thick with darkness. But I got on my bike and kept pressing the pedals. Twenty miles the first day. Thirty the next. Forty. The bike spun me into a rhythm, and as the days passed, I could feel the darkness slough off me into the wind. Thoughts and feelings rose out of my body and dissolved in my wake. I became lighter and freer. The days were gray and sometimes I was scared, but the rhythm of the road pulled me closer to a me I finally recognized. I began to feel strong again. I was going to find those reindeer.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="27" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Within a week I noticed a small hole on my arm, and a little white worm poked out, wiggled around, and went down again. I smiled. After living for years in the jungle, I’d seen plenty of bot flies but I’d never had one myself. This one must have hatched in me in Costa Rica. Bot fly larvae grow under your skin and feed on your flesh, periodically poking out a breathing tube. Mine lived in the center of my upper arm, so I got to watch his little worm-tube pop out of me as I biked. His name was Spike, I decided, and we were friends. I spent many long hours singing him lullabies as I pedaled into the wind.<br></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="28" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">After a meandering 800 miles I stopped in a parking lot in Montreal and waited for Scott. When he got out of the car I recognized the breadth of his shoulders, the way his long hair hung slack in a ponytail. We hugged and his hair smelled like cereal, the way it always did. This was my person, the man I loved, my adventure partner of almost a decade. The last few years had been hard on us, and I wanted this trip to remind him of who we were. I hoped he would love the road as much as I did.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="29" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We sorted our gear, left his car at a friend’s house, and started biking north. The next day we stopped at a gas station, and I went into the bathroom and looked down at my arm. I liked Spike but he bothered me sometimes. He was, after all, feeding on me. I pressed down on my skin and watched as the hole widened and a thick white larval head came out. I kept pushing until Spike slid out and lay wiggling on top of my arm. He was about half an inch long. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="30" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I walked outside with Spike in my palm. I was relieved to be rid of him but also sad. We had come so far together, just the two of us. I hesitated, said a few words of farewell, and then dropped him on the sidewalk and squished him with my shoe. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-17" data-node-id="31" class="embed"><div size="large" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-large embed css-5mh6xd e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=980:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=1200:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=1200:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=2048:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-003-1606849564.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.847xh;0,0.0984xh&resize=2048:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-1gccgwy e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">Near Kegashka, Quebec, before boarding the ferry to Newfoundland and Labrador.</p></div></div></div></section> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-18" data-node-id="32" class="embed"><div size="small" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-small embed css-1d4uvkk e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="wild reindeer" title="wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=320:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=480:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><p class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">.</span></figcaption></p></div></div></section> <p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="34" class="body-dropcap css-1qvnr24 emevuu60"> As Scott and I pedaled north, the traffic dwindled and forests morphed into wild, impenetrable bogs. We camped on top of boulders and cooked dinners over a fire. This was the land of wildflowers and wolves, of wide skies and open road. And this was the freedom I remembered, wind in our hair, all the possibilities, open. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="35" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">But our years at the Branch had changed us in ways I wasn’t ready to face. The same boys’ club that had crushed me also seemed to have expanded Scott’s confidence. And those two outcomes felt related in a way that I knew, but also denied.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="36" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">One day we took a rocky track and my bike slid a little. “You could really use some bike lessons,” Scott snickered. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="37" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">My eyes narrowed. His words did not make sense. Years ago I had taken Scott on his first bike trip, taught him how to pack a pannier, change a flat. I planned our routes, handed him gear lists, helped him build out his kit. I had ridden thousands of miles before I ever started taking him with me. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="38" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">After that, the comments came in a steady stream. I was bad at biking. I didn’t know what I was doing. He couldn’t wait for someone to teach me how to pedal. And each day, I asked him to stop. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="39" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We decided to take the most remote route possible, a long stretch of pavement and dirt hugging the St. Lawrence River all the way to its mouth at the sea. There, almost a thousand miles from Montreal, the road would end completely and we’d board a ferry for Newfoundland and Labrador. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-19" data-node-id="40" class="embed"><div size="small" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-small embed css-1d4uvkk e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=320:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=480:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=640:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=640:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=640:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-007-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.940xw:0.940xh;0.0155xw,0.0596xh&resize=640:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">We gathered wild blueberries (shown), raspberries, blackberries, and cloudberries along the way. In some places it was easy to gather several pounds of berries at once.</p></div></div></div></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="41" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The miles flew by, but the farther I went, the more my confidence dimmed. I had come so far, and gotten so much stronger. But I no longer felt strong. An invisible string tightened inside of me like a ratchet strap. I loved Scott and he seemed to love me, but he did not make me feel good about myself. And as we pedaled across those stark, beautiful boglands, I began to realize that this had consequence. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="42" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">On the day we were going to reach the end of the road, I pulled over at an outlook, and my bike skidded a little on a patch of sand. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="43" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Scott rolled up next to me. “Nice skills,” he scoffed. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="44" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The contempt in his voice filled the air so completely, there was no space for anything else. And finally, the string that was tightening inside me reached its limit and could go no further. I got off my bike and turned to face him. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="45" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I closed my eyes and screamed, “<em>YOU! HAVE! TO! STOPPPPPPPPPPP!</em>” </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="46" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">When I opened my eyes Scott was staring at me, his water bottle frozen in hand halfway to his mouth. Neither of us said anything else. We started riding, and within a few hours, we entered a small town. Then the dirt stopped in front of the sea. We had reached the end of the road.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="47" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We turned down a trail toward the water, and finally Scott broke the silence. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="48" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“I’m sorry,” he said. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="49" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“For what?” I asked.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="50" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“I know I keep bringing you down.” His voice was quiet, sincere. “I just don’t know how to stop.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="51" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We spent the rest of the day waiting for the ferry. I gathered wild berries and Scott napped under a picnic table. I woke him up and posed him in pictures with me, his arm around my shoulder, my face leaning against his neck. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="52" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I had built a home with this person. We had climbed mountains at dawn in half a dozen countries. When he was sick I had scooped vomit out of his mouth, and when my leg was broken he had held me up to pee. We had written love letters in two languages. It didn’t matter who either of us had become. What mattered was a past that I loved, and a future I still believed in. I thought that if he saw the photos later, he would see what I saw. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-20" data-node-id="53" class="embed"><div size="large" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-large embed css-5mh6xd e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="search for wild reindeer" title="search for wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=980:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=1200:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=1200:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=2048:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-006b-1606862152.jpg?crop=1.00xw:0.751xh;0,0.181xh&resize=2048:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-1gccgwy e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">Cooking moose meat burritos at a wild campsite, near Sept-Iles, Quebec.</p></div></div></div></section> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-21" data-node-id="54" class="embed"><div size="small" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-small embed css-1d4uvkk e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="wild reindeer" title="wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=320:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=480:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><p class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">.</span></figcaption></p></div></div></section> <p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="56" class="body-dropcap css-1qvnr24 emevuu60">By the time we reached Newfoundland, I had lost hope of finding the wild reindeer. Perhaps the message had meant something else or perhaps it had never meant anything after all. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="57" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">One day we pulled into a seaside campsite near Port Au Choix in northwestern Newfoundland. As we left the registration office, the guy turned to us.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="58" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“Oh, and the reindeer are by the lighthouse now, if you want to see them. Been there all week.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="59" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I felt so excited, my stomach hurt. I went to the bathroom and put on all my most colorful clothes. If we were finally going to find these reindeer, I wanted to show up in style. I dressed myself in all the colors of the rainbow. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="60" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The lighthouse lay at the end of a wide expanse of uninhabited tundra. We biked toward it, side by side, sea breeze in our faces. But the string inside of me tightened again and I didn’t know why.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="61" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“I can’t believe this is it,” I said to Scott, pedaling. “We’re finally going to find them.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="62" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“Yeah, what is it with you and these reindeer?” he asked.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="63" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I glanced at him. “Oh because, you remember.” I paused between each sentence, breathing in and out. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="64" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“Last year when I wanted to die.” Breath. “I wrote myself that message in the bottle.” Breath. “Find the wild reindeer.” Breath. “And now these are the reindeer.” </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="65" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“What?” He said, turning his head toward me, then away. “You never said that. You never told me you wanted to die.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="66" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“Of course I did.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="67" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“No, you didn’t.”</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="68" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We kept pedaling, the two of us side by side. And something about who I was left me then. Something inside my heart rose up and exited out the top of my head and disappeared into the sky and never came back. If he didn’t know I had wanted to die, then what did he know? I was alone on this journey. And no matter how far we pedaled together, I would still be alone. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="69" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">The lighthouse drew closer and closer. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="70" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">“Look,” Scott whispered, slowing down. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-22" data-node-id="71" class="embed"><div size="large" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-large embed css-5mh6xd e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=980:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=1200:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=1200:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=2048:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-008-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.955xw:0.806xh;0.0259xw,0.132xh&resize=2048:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-1gccgwy e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">Finding the wild reindeer near Port au Choix in northwestern Newfoundland.</p></div></div></div></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="72" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">In the middle of the road was a brown dot. We pedaled forward and the dot took shape. It had four spindly legs, a big broad nose, and two little antlers. At a hundred feet we stopped and watched, and the creature stared back at us, unperturbed. It turned and ambled off into the tundra. And there on the hillside was the whole herd. <br></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="73" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Scott got back on his bike and headed toward the lighthouse. I walked my bike to the side of the road, took off my helmet, and slowly crawled into the bushes. The tundra smelled fresh and earthy, and my hands sank into thick mats of dry moss. I edged slowly toward the herd, then lay on my stomach, watching and smiling. Little calves shook their heads and tottered on new legs. Reindeer with huge antlers lazed on the ground and nibbled at bushes. When a doe nipped at a raspberry bush, I stretched my neck toward a raspberry and nibbled it too. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="74" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I had wondered for so long what this moment would be like, what would happen when I finally found the wild reindeer. I had thought maybe some Big Life Lesson would fall from the heavens and I would cry until nothing was left of me. I had been sure that if I got here, everything would mean something.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="75" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">But instead, lying in the bog with the wild reindeer, I just felt peaceful. I tasted the tartness of the raspberry on my tongue. Felt wisps of wind brush the scent of wildflowers past my nose. Watched the reindeer twitch their ears, calm in the sun. And I lay there with them because I wanted to be there. I had come a long way to be alive in this moment. It was beautiful to be so fully alive.</p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-23" data-node-id="76" class="embed"><div size="large" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-large embed css-5mh6xd e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=980:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=1200:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=1200:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=2048:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-009-1606849560.jpg?crop=0.986xw:0.832xh;0.00518xw,0.168xh&resize=2048:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><p class="css-1gccgwy e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption></p></div></div></section> | |||
| <section data-embed="pullquote" data-lazy-id="P0-24" data-node-id="77" class="embed"><blockquote class="css-3u9muv e1pe3zr91"><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-dd784d eagam8p0"></span><blockquote class="css-1hihk6d e1pe3zr90">I had come a long way to be alive in this moment. It was beautiful to be so fully alive.</blockquote><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-1axj8y8 eagam8p1"></span></blockquote></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="78" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">We continued on to New Brunswick, where we camped one last night together on a cliff overlooking the Bay of Fundy. From here Scott would bike to the bus station, and eventually fly back to Costa Rica. I’d bike back to my parents’ house in Rhode Island, and then fly to meet him.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="79" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">In the morning Scott packed up his panniers, and I started to cry. It was a big, bawling cry. I cried because I loved him. I loved him because of all our miles together, and also because of who he was. There was something in Scott that was rare and wonderful, that dreamed big and worked hard and loved deep. I cried because he was leaving, or maybe because part of me knew he had already left.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="80" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">And then Scott looked at me and started to laugh. As I listened to his laughter, a visceral understanding rose from my stomach and landed in my brain. In that moment I knew something that I could no longer prevent myself from knowing. That the person I loved got bigger when I got smaller. That he could not stop bringing me down, because bringing me down was what brought him up. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="81" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">He cared about me, and everything wonderful about him was true. But this other part of him was true, too. I stopped crying and became very still. We kissed goodbye and I watched his bike disappear over the hill. </p> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-25" data-node-id="82" class="embed"><div size="medium" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-medium embed css-eyzghf e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="in search of the wild reindeer" title="in search of the wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=640:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=768:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=980:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=980:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=980:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-wildreindeer-005-1606849565.jpg?crop=0.670xw:1.00xh;0.157xw,0&resize=980:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><div class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">Laura Killingbeck</span></figcaption><p class="css-1kmbll1 e1fodxfw1">Walking along the shore at the Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick. </p></div></div></div></section> | |||
| <section data-embed="body-image" data-lazy-id="P0-26" data-node-id="83" class="embed"><div size="small" data-embed="body-image" class="align-center size-small embed css-1d4uvkk e1fodxfw4"><div class="css-uwraif e1fodxfw3"><img alt="wild reindeer" title="wild reindeer" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" sizes="100vw" srcset="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=320:* 640w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=480:* 980w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1120w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1200w, https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:* 1920w" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/ride-reindeer-breaks-2-1606857826.jpg?resize=640:*" class="css-0 e193vzwj0"><p class="css-swqnqv e1fodxfw2"><figcaption class="css-1am3yn9 e1g9hcy40"><span class="css-1fhmotn e1geg53v2">.</span></figcaption></p></div></div></section><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="84" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60"> <br></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="85" class="body-dropcap css-1qvnr24 emevuu60">I set my course for Rhode Island, but as the road turned south into the U.S., I had the feeling I was going in the wrong direction. Injury and rehab had bought me time away from the Branch, but I was still expected to return. Yet the more I pedaled, the less I wanted to get there. </p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="86" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">Finally in northern Maine I set up camp by a stream and let myself fall apart. Everything that had tightened inside of me finally came undone, and as the tears poured out of me, something else flowed out, too. It was a deep and uncontainable gratitude. I had lived and loved and some things had worked out and others hadn’t and I was grateful for all of it. With this gratitude I finally wrote my resignation from the Branch. The owners had still not legalized our shares in the business, and no one knew if they ever would. I was 34 years old, and had invested eight years there. I would leave behind my home, my job, my business, and my community. Maybe even my relationship. But I would walk away with the most valuable thing I had put in: myself.</p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="87" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">A few hundred miles later, I crossed the border into Rhode Island. I passed my old elementary school and turned into my parents’ driveway. I stood in the yard and looked at the house with its vinyl siding, the unruly garden, the old oak tree. Everything was so familiar. And I had returned, pedal by pedal, after finding the wild reindeer.<br></p><p data-journey-content="true" data-node-id="88" class="css-1nd4gv7 emevuu60">I had gone on this journey for some reason, and as the months passed, that reason became clear. Finding the wild reindeer taught me that when hope is lost, you can create it. That life is too short to let anyone else own your truth. And that you can break and still be unbreakable. </p></div> | |||
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| <h1>The next decade of the web</h1> | |||
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| <p>My experience on the web has been one of dualities. </p> | |||
| <p>I grew up with the web being around: as a child, I played PBS and BBC games on our family computer. The web provided comfort when I was bored, and a place to open my eyes to the space around me. I fondly remember looking at photos from NASA on our home computer and being in awe. I saw stars from galaxies away, all from my computer screen, as a kid.</p> | |||
| <p>Through the web, I have found delight in mathematics, blog posts that encouraged me to seek help for my mental health, and people who opened my world view. I have an encyclopedia at my fingertips -- Wikipedia -- that is curated by people around the world.</p> | |||
| <p>I also use the web to work: through the internet, I found a job and connect with colleagues. I am a technical writer, tasked with documenting machine learning systems that are used across the world to solve problems. I publish my work on the web.</p> | |||
| <p>At the same time, the web has sometimes made me sad, stressed, or anxious. At the beginning of the pandemic, my use of social media made me cry. I was unable to take in all of the information. I already felt powerless over almost everything that was happening in the world (aside from my being able to stay at home to mitigate the spread of illness), and social media amplified that feeling. I started to take a break from social media: there was too much going on, and I needed quiet.</p> | |||
| <p>My web experience was thus enlightenment and disempowerment. Opportunity and anxiety. Tears and joy.</p> | |||
| <p>I started to wonder if things could be different. I wondered if rather than being <em>subjected to</em> social media where there were endless discussions going on every day and where I felt in limited control to curate my experience, there could be another way. That's when I found a community of people who wrote on their blogs: the IndieWeb. The IndieWeb, started before I had began high school, was founded on the proposition that the web could be different. That people could be first. That we could build our own experience.</p> | |||
| <p>The core value of the IndieWeb, individual empowerment, helped me realise a fundamental change in perspective: that the web was beautiful and at times difficult, but that we, the people, were in control. That as powerless as I may feel over change -- that I <em>have</em> to keep using social media to stay connected, watching ads and all -- things could be different.</p> | |||
| <p>I have been thinking about the future of the web, and technology more broadly. I noted recently that perhaps we will reach a time when we get bored of smartphones. When sharing this idea with friends, I added the caveat that I am potentially wearing rose-tinted glasses, trying to wish something into being. Yet, I do not think this is the case</p> | |||
| <p>There is already malaise about the state of the web. There are myriad problems: how social media contributes to loneliness, the contribution of such ready access to information to anxiety, the increased likelihood of encountering misinformation, the compulsions we build to check notifications on platforms that we use, the existence of so many platforms that we feel we have to be on not to miss out.</p> | |||
| <p>My vision for the web over the next ten years is that we can turn that feeling of malaise, which I think is rooted in disempowerment, into a feeling that things can be different.</p> | |||
| <p>No one person set off a light bulb in my mind that made me think I could have a personal website where I blog about all the things I find fun and interesting. Rather, it was seeing role models from all different backgrounds that made me think I could take more control of the web, and use the web as a platform not for consumption or creation for capital, but as a place of expression.</p> | |||
| <p>After the last decade, where <em>platforms</em> have emerged as a core constituent of the web on which many rely, it may feel like things cannot change. That the giants are so big that there is no other way. Yet, to give into this feeling -- that things can't change -- is not necessary. <em>It is the way it is</em> is not true on the web. We can make change. It's your web.</p> | |||
| <p>My knowing that the web is for the people opened me up to new community, opportunity, and helped me with my mental health. I found people who appreciated me for my writing. I found an audience who liked my work. I started to think that I could be myself without having to worry about engagement. Indeed, I eschew analytics. If one person reads what I write and likes it, I consider a piece of writing a great success. On social media, however, I didn't think that way.</p> | |||
| <p>Things can be different.</p> | |||
| <p>There are many beacons of hope across the web that suggest things can be different. People who write on their blogs. Photographers who share and sell art on their websites. Mastodon, a public commons where people can chat and where you can move your identity between different site owners if a site owner does something with which you disagree. <em>The Verge</em>, a news publication, has showed that whatever happens with the ecosystem -- search engines changing, for example -- journalists can build <em>destinations</em> where people go; that a home page can be where someone goes to news, rather than exclusively a social media timeline.</p> | |||
| <p>We are already making change, but to make more we need to reaffirm the foundations of the web: that the web is for people. We need to go out and shout from the rooftops that the web can be different. To do so effectively, we all need to be the change we want to see in the web. I do this by being myself on my personal website, and by sharing my writing on my site actively.</p> | |||
| <p>What changes you want to see will likely be different from mine. That's good. The web should support a plurality of visions. My vision for the web is for us to look to smaller communities. To say that perhaps we don't need scale. Indeed, the scale of social media was not a boon to me. It felt great to be connected to so many people, but I am not built for that. I want a small space where I can see everything my friends post online. I am curious: what is your vision for the web?</p> | |||
| <p>Change will necessitate tools for change, too.</p> | |||
| <p>Mastodon is one example of a tool that can cause tidal shifts in our outlook and use of the web. Mastodon's existence says, every day, that we can have a web where the user is in control, where ads are not present among content we read, where we can post links to our own channels of distribution -- personal websites, portfolios, stores, etc. -- without worrying about demotion in ranking algorithms.</p> | |||
| <p>We will need more people to build more web tools that empower people. We need tools for people that are as easy to use as possible. We need tools that require no technological experience to use well. We need tools where conditions of usage are intuitive to understand. Tools where personal ownership is first.</p> | |||
| <p>I have a few asks of you, the reader.</p> | |||
| <p>If you do not have a personal website, take a look at my Wander page. There, you will find many web pages linked. See if anything excites you. Wander the web. Explore. as you explore, keep the idea in your mind that you, too, can have a personal website.</p> | |||
| <p>You can write about whatever you want on the web: works of fiction, stories from your life, reviews of movies -- whatever you want. You can share art -- photography, paintings, drawings, videos -- on your own platform. If something inspires you, take a note. Look into starting a website. You can start a website in an afternoon with a tool like WordPress. If you need help, you're welcome to email me at readers [at] jamesg [dot] blog.</p> | |||
| <p>If you do have a personal website, I encourage you to do what you can to reaffirm the idea that the web is for the people. You are already leading by example, and some writings on what you do and why you do it on the web would go a long way to contributing to the body of information we have on different ways the web can work. Indeed, the web is for people: documenting stories of how we all use the web creates more chances to reach people and evoke the idea that the web can be different.</p> | |||
| <p>In ten years, I hope I look back and feel that I have helped more people feel ownership over the time and places they spend on the web. I hope that more people join me in this, too. I may not have been writing this today if a few people ten years ago hadn't decided to start a small community dedicated to individual empowerment on the web. That shows the power of the web: a few people can create ideas that change the web, ideas that ripple through a decade. Your being the change you want to see in the web may have a multiplicative effect: someone sees how you do things, then they are inspired to take ownership over their web experience.</p> | |||
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| title: The next decade of the web | |||
| url: https://jamesg.blog/2024/05/19/next-web-decade/ | |||
| hash_url: 50fb34a41d67e9468fce639e97fd62a3 | |||
| archive_date: 2024-05-21 | |||
| og_image: https://screenshots.jamesg.blog/?url=https://jamesg.blog/2024/05/19/next-web-decade/ | |||
| description: My experience on the web has been one of dualities. | |||
| favicon: https://jamesg.blog/favicon.ico | |||
| language: en_US | |||
| <p>My experience on the web has been one of dualities. </p> | |||
| <p>I grew up with the web being around: as a child, I played PBS and BBC games on our family computer. The web provided comfort when I was bored, and a place to open my eyes to the space around me. I fondly remember looking at photos from NASA on our home computer and being in awe. I saw stars from galaxies away, all from my computer screen, as a kid.</p> | |||
| <p>Through the web, I have found delight in mathematics, blog posts that encouraged me to seek help for my mental health, and people who opened my world view. I have an encyclopedia at my fingertips -- Wikipedia -- that is curated by people around the world.</p> | |||
| <p>I also use the web to work: through the internet, I found a job and connect with colleagues. I am a technical writer, tasked with documenting machine learning systems that are used across the world to solve problems. I publish my work on the web.</p> | |||
| <p>At the same time, the web has sometimes made me sad, stressed, or anxious. At the beginning of the pandemic, my use of social media made me cry. I was unable to take in all of the information. I already felt powerless over almost everything that was happening in the world (aside from my being able to stay at home to mitigate the spread of illness), and social media amplified that feeling. I started to take a break from social media: there was too much going on, and I needed quiet.</p> | |||
| <p>My web experience was thus enlightenment and disempowerment. Opportunity and anxiety. Tears and joy.</p> | |||
| <p>I started to wonder if things could be different. I wondered if rather than being <em>subjected to</em> social media where there were endless discussions going on every day and where I felt in limited control to curate my experience, there could be another way. That's when I found a community of people who wrote on their blogs: the IndieWeb. The IndieWeb, started before I had began high school, was founded on the proposition that the web could be different. That people could be first. That we could build our own experience.</p> | |||
| <p>The core value of the IndieWeb, individual empowerment, helped me realise a fundamental change in perspective: that the web was beautiful and at times difficult, but that we, the people, were in control. That as powerless as I may feel over change -- that I <em>have</em> to keep using social media to stay connected, watching ads and all -- things could be different.</p> | |||
| <p>I have been thinking about the future of the web, and technology more broadly. I noted recently that perhaps we will reach a time when we get bored of smartphones. When sharing this idea with friends, I added the caveat that I am potentially wearing rose-tinted glasses, trying to wish something into being. Yet, I do not think this is the case</p> | |||
| <p>There is already malaise about the state of the web. There are myriad problems: how social media contributes to loneliness, the contribution of such ready access to information to anxiety, the increased likelihood of encountering misinformation, the compulsions we build to check notifications on platforms that we use, the existence of so many platforms that we feel we have to be on not to miss out.</p> | |||
| <p>My vision for the web over the next ten years is that we can turn that feeling of malaise, which I think is rooted in disempowerment, into a feeling that things can be different.</p> | |||
| <p>No one person set off a light bulb in my mind that made me think I could have a personal website where I blog about all the things I find fun and interesting. Rather, it was seeing role models from all different backgrounds that made me think I could take more control of the web, and use the web as a platform not for consumption or creation for capital, but as a place of expression.</p> | |||
| <p>After the last decade, where <em>platforms</em> have emerged as a core constituent of the web on which many rely, it may feel like things cannot change. That the giants are so big that there is no other way. Yet, to give into this feeling -- that things can't change -- is not necessary. <em>It is the way it is</em> is not true on the web. We can make change. It's your web.</p> | |||
| <p>My knowing that the web is for the people opened me up to new community, opportunity, and helped me with my mental health. I found people who appreciated me for my writing. I found an audience who liked my work. I started to think that I could be myself without having to worry about engagement. Indeed, I eschew analytics. If one person reads what I write and likes it, I consider a piece of writing a great success. On social media, however, I didn't think that way.</p> | |||
| <p>Things can be different.</p> | |||
| <p>There are many beacons of hope across the web that suggest things can be different. People who write on their blogs. Photographers who share and sell art on their websites. Mastodon, a public commons where people can chat and where you can move your identity between different site owners if a site owner does something with which you disagree. <em>The Verge</em>, a news publication, has showed that whatever happens with the ecosystem -- search engines changing, for example -- journalists can build <em>destinations</em> where people go; that a home page can be where someone goes to news, rather than exclusively a social media timeline.</p> | |||
| <p>We are already making change, but to make more we need to reaffirm the foundations of the web: that the web is for people. We need to go out and shout from the rooftops that the web can be different. To do so effectively, we all need to be the change we want to see in the web. I do this by being myself on my personal website, and by sharing my writing on my site actively.</p> | |||
| <p>What changes you want to see will likely be different from mine. That's good. The web should support a plurality of visions. My vision for the web is for us to look to smaller communities. To say that perhaps we don't need scale. Indeed, the scale of social media was not a boon to me. It felt great to be connected to so many people, but I am not built for that. I want a small space where I can see everything my friends post online. I am curious: what is your vision for the web?</p> | |||
| <p>Change will necessitate tools for change, too.</p> | |||
| <p>Mastodon is one example of a tool that can cause tidal shifts in our outlook and use of the web. Mastodon's existence says, every day, that we can have a web where the user is in control, where ads are not present among content we read, where we can post links to our own channels of distribution -- personal websites, portfolios, stores, etc. -- without worrying about demotion in ranking algorithms.</p> | |||
| <p>We will need more people to build more web tools that empower people. We need tools for people that are as easy to use as possible. We need tools that require no technological experience to use well. We need tools where conditions of usage are intuitive to understand. Tools where personal ownership is first.</p> | |||
| <p>I have a few asks of you, the reader.</p> | |||
| <p>If you do not have a personal website, take a look at my Wander page. There, you will find many web pages linked. See if anything excites you. Wander the web. Explore. as you explore, keep the idea in your mind that you, too, can have a personal website.</p> | |||
| <p>You can write about whatever you want on the web: works of fiction, stories from your life, reviews of movies -- whatever you want. You can share art -- photography, paintings, drawings, videos -- on your own platform. If something inspires you, take a note. Look into starting a website. You can start a website in an afternoon with a tool like WordPress. If you need help, you're welcome to email me at readers [at] jamesg [dot] blog.</p> | |||
| <p>If you do have a personal website, I encourage you to do what you can to reaffirm the idea that the web is for the people. You are already leading by example, and some writings on what you do and why you do it on the web would go a long way to contributing to the body of information we have on different ways the web can work. Indeed, the web is for people: documenting stories of how we all use the web creates more chances to reach people and evoke the idea that the web can be different.</p> | |||
| <p>In ten years, I hope I look back and feel that I have helped more people feel ownership over the time and places they spend on the web. I hope that more people join me in this, too. I may not have been writing this today if a few people ten years ago hadn't decided to start a small community dedicated to individual empowerment on the web. That shows the power of the web: a few people can create ideas that change the web, ideas that ripple through a decade. Your being the change you want to see in the web may have a multiplicative effect: someone sees how you do things, then they are inspired to take ownership over their web experience.</p> | |||
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| <h1>Russia using thousands of SpaceX Starlink terminals in Ukraine, WSJ says</h1> | |||
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| <p>Feb 15 (Reuters) - Russian troops in Ukraine are using thousands of Starlink satellite communications terminals made by Elon Musk's SpaceX, the Ukrainian military intelligence chief told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Thursday.</p> | |||
| <p>Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov said that Russian troops have been communicating over the Starlink system "for quite a long time" and acquired the terminals from private Russian firms that purchased them from intermediaries.</p> | |||
| <p>The intermediaries, he said, deliver the equipment to Russia through neighboring countries, including former Soviet Republics.</p> | |||
| <p>Budanov's agency told Reuters on Monday that Russian troops were communicating over Starlink on their front lines, but did not disclose the extent to which the terminals were in use.</p> | |||
| <p>Ukraine relies extensively on Starlink, saying last year that around 42,000 terminals were in use by the military, hospitals, businesses and aid organizations, with the Pentagon helping to fund access for Ukrainian forces.</p> | |||
| <p>The Russian Embassy and SpaceX did not respond immediately to requests for comment.</p> | |||
| <p>Starlink has said it does not do any business in or with Russia. The company did not respond to an email earlier this week asking whether it could categorically rule out the system's use by Russian troops in Ukraine. | |||
| Retired British Army Brigadier Ben Barry told Reuters that if Russian forces are using Starlink their communications would be more secure and harder for Ukraine and its allies to crack.</p> | |||
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| title: Russia using thousands of SpaceX Starlink terminals in Ukraine, WSJ says | |||
| url: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-using-thousands-spacex-starlink-terminals-ukraine-wsj-says-2024-02-15/ | |||
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| description: The Russian Embassy and SpaceX did not respond immediately to requests for comment. | |||
| favicon: https://www.reuters.com/favicon.ico | |||
| language: en_US | |||
| Feb 15 (Reuters) - Russian troops in Ukraine are using thousands of Starlink satellite communications terminals made by Elon Musk's SpaceX, the Ukrainian military intelligence chief told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Thursday. | |||
| Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov said that Russian troops have been communicating over the Starlink system "for quite a long time" and acquired the terminals from private Russian firms that purchased them from intermediaries. | |||
| The intermediaries, he said, deliver the equipment to Russia through neighboring countries, including former Soviet Republics. | |||
| Budanov's agency told Reuters on Monday that Russian troops were communicating over Starlink on their front lines, but did not disclose the extent to which the terminals were in use. | |||
| Ukraine relies extensively on Starlink, saying last year that around 42,000 terminals were in use by the military, hospitals, businesses and aid organizations, with the Pentagon helping to fund access for Ukrainian forces. | |||
| The Russian Embassy and SpaceX did not respond immediately to requests for comment. | |||
| Starlink has said it does not do any business in or with Russia. The company did not respond to an email earlier this week asking whether it could categorically rule out the system's use by Russian troops in Ukraine. | |||
| Retired British Army Brigadier Ben Barry told Reuters that if Russian forces are using Starlink their communications would be more secure and harder for Ukraine and its allies to crack. | |||
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| <h1>The deskilling of web dev is harming the product but, more importantly, it's damaging our health</h1> | |||
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| <p>Even before the web developer job market became as dire as it is today, I was regularly seeing developers burn out and leave the industry. Some left for good; some only temporarily. Many have outright destroyed their health through anxiety and burnout.</p> | |||
| <p>The only other industry I’m familiar with that has the same levels of physically-demanding anxiety and worker churn is trade publishing – and that’s an industry famous for <em>literally</em> paying below-subsistence wages for the cities they’re based in.</p> | |||
| <p><em>“Maybe I should try to find a job that doesn’t involve web development?"</em></p> | |||
| <p>Even those still in web dev are feeling burnt out and the reason for that is – unfortunately – quite straightforward:</p> | |||
| <p><em>We’re expected to keep up with multiple specialities that, in a sensible industry, would each be a dedicated field.</em></p> | |||
| <ul> | |||
| <li>CSS isn’t just a complex language, it’s one of the most advanced graphics, layout, and typesetting languages available in computing.</li> | |||
| <li>HTML and the DOM are two language that interweave to create a complex and dynamic environment that is the foundation of <em>everything</em> we do in web dev and, by proxy, every industry that has adopted parts of the web stack for their own purposes. They are a deep speciality even without adding JavaScript into the mix.</li> | |||
| <li>JavaScript has become a complex language with a number of built-in APIs and language features that rivals that of many other programming languages. That’s despite <em>not having a proper standard library.</em></li> | |||
| <li>HTTP <em>on its own</em> is a fully fledged field of study as a platform of multiple integrated protocols (1.1, 2, and 3) that have little in common except for their shared idioms. That’s without getting into WebRTC.</li> | |||
| <li>Web server development is yet another field of study with issues that are completely unique and not shared with the other parts of the web stack, except for maybe…</li> | |||
| <li>Service workers, which require a completely different mode of thinking from the rest of front-end development and have more in common with web server programming than DOM manipulation.</li> | |||
| <li>Workers have become a full-featured parallel programming paradigm.</li> | |||
| <li><em>Testing</em>, irrespective of the language or platform, is yet another complex specialisation we all just pretend doesn’t exist.</li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p><em>Of course you’re having problems keeping up with everything that’s happening in web dev. <strong>Of course!</strong></em></p> | |||
| <p>You’re expected to follow half-a-dozen different specialities, each relatively fast-paced and complex in its own right, and you’re supposed to do it without cutting into the hours where you do actual paid web development.</p> | |||
| <p>Worse yet, you’re not actually expected to <em>use</em> any of it directly. Instead you’re <em>also</em> supposed to follow the developments of framework abstractions that are layered on top of the foundation specialities, at least doubling the number of complex fields a web dev has to follow and understand, right out of the gate.</p> | |||
| <p>This is <em>immense</em> – an expectation so mind-boggling that we need to acknowledge just how remarkable it is that each of us has managed as well as we have.</p> | |||
| <p>The framework knowledge itself is also <em>perishable</em>. Not because your memory or physical coordination deteriorates (though that happens too), but because frameworks change more and faster than the underlying platform.</p> | |||
| <p>I learned how the CSS Grid works over a decade ago. Even if I hadn’t kept up with CSS, everything I learned back then still works today. I could use the basic techniques of the CSS Grid as it existed in 2014 and that code would work unchanged today.</p> | |||
| <p>The recommended semantics for HTML have changed, but the basic principle of list or table markup is the same as it was over <strong>twenty-five years ago</strong>, when I first began. If twenty-something Baldur was cast forward in time to the year 2024 and asked to put together an HTML table that rendered in a modern browser, he’d probably have a harder time figuring out the modern browser UI than with the coding task itself.</p> | |||
| <p>But the React skills I have are all out of date and obsolete. I would effectively have to start from scratch even if I wanted to get back into React work. Everything React has changed in ways that are fundamentally incompatible.</p> | |||
| <p>The same applies to my skills in Svelte. I first got into Svelte with version 3. They’re now releasing version 5 and are <a href="https://svelte-5-preview.vercel.app/docs/runes">completely changing their approach to state management.</a> My old Svelte skills are obsolete but they’re still there, useless and cluttering up my memory.</p> | |||
| <p>Framework skills are <em>perishable</em>, but are easily just as complicated as the foundation layers of the web platform and it takes just as much – if not more – effort to keep them up to date.</p> | |||
| <p>We’re expected to do everything, keep up with everything, adapt to constant changes, and understand multiple conflicting architectural paradigms ranging from immediate mode rendering, to relational databases, to REST API designs, to both imperative and declarative programming, to complex state querying languages like GraphQL, to all of the various intricacies of how CSS handles rendering.</p> | |||
| <p>We’re made to do all this while watching our peers lose their jobs, our employers savage society through pervasive surveillance and collaboration with authoritarian companies, and our data centres suck up the entire water supply for entire municipalities.</p> | |||
| <p>No wonder we’re all fucked up emotionally and mentally.</p> | |||
| <h2 id="this-is-what-_deskilling_-looks-like">This is what <em>deskilling</em> looks like</h2> | |||
| <p>These are all distinct specialities and web dev teams <em>should</em> be composed of cross-functional specialists.</p> | |||
| <p>You shouldn’t have to be figuring out both front end and server-side programming. That’s two separate skill sets.</p> | |||
| <p>Companies should have CSS specialists on their teams who take care of the complexity of providing stylesheets, with class and attribute hooks, that work well with the project’s architecture and design. Those specialists should be working with the front-end engineers and the UX designers to figure out how best to implement in CSS what the project needs.</p> | |||
| <p>Once you understand this, it becomes obvious why Tailwind is so popular among developers: Tailwind provides a loose approximation of the experience you would get from having a dedicated CSS expert on board. <em>“Here are some classes and attribute hooks. Just use them in your markup and everything will look great. Of course I’ve also written documentation for you. What do you take me for?"</em></p> | |||
| <p>That abstraction falls apart quite often because Tailwind is too thin of a layer to hide the complexities of CSS. Nodes in the DOM can affect the rendering of both their ancestors and descendants and it’s very easy to run into a situation where, for example, <code>position: sticky</code> doesn’t work and the utility class model makes figuring out the issue much harder.</p> | |||
| <p>Unlike a collaboration with an actual expert, Tailwind demands its own expertise and quickly begins to require an understanding of how the underlying CSS stack works, undermining much of it’s own purpose.</p> | |||
| <p>But the promise it offers is tantalising: it’s your CSS buddy so you don’t have to know CSS.</p> | |||
| <p><em>Of course</em> developers love this. Why wouldn’t they? I’m sure they’d love having a friendly real-life specialist that takes care of all things CSS even more, but we all know that’s not going to happen in our current deskilled industry.</p> | |||
| <p>So Tailwind it is.</p> | |||
| <p>This is deskilling. It lets employers and managers pretend that web project teams don’t need CSS expertise – or even just pretend that CSS expertise just doesn’t exist at all. <em>This is what Tailwind is for.</em></p> | |||
| <h2 id="instead-of-learning-from-history-we-double-down-and-make-things-worse">Instead of learning from history, we double down and make things worse</h2> | |||
| <p>Organisations that hire web developers and ship web-based projects could have responded to recent changes in the tech ecosystem by re-specialising.</p> | |||
| <p>Cross-functional teams of specialists are almost certainly much more productive than a team that consists of identikit full-stack developers and a mostly untrained PM who lives in a constant state of anxiety and panic.</p> | |||
| <p>Specialists cost more because you either need to pay more to hire them, or you need to pay for the time it takes for somebody to become a specialist. But the productivity improvements should more than outweigh the cost. Especially considering that a junior specialist often has the same capabilities in their field as a senior generalist, which means a whole host of previously intractable technical problems suddenly become tractable when your teams are composed of cross-functional specialists.</p> | |||
| <p>But instead we’re all-in on deskilling the industry. Not content with removing CSS and HTML almost entirely from the job market, we’re now shifting towards the model where devs are instead “AI” wranglers. The web dev of the future will be an underpaid generalist who pokes at chatbot output until it runs without error, pokes at a copilot until it generates tests that pass with some coverage, and ships code that nobody understand and can’t be fixed if something goes wrong.</p> | |||
| <p>If you think companies are going to pay “AI” wranglers senior-level pay in the long term, or that they’re going to pay for the time it takes to rewrite or properly comprehend the code being generated, then you’re missing the point of <em>why</em> employers are adopting the technology.</p> | |||
| <p>The point is to pay fewer of us less: replace senior coders with junior, specialists with generalists, and the trained with untrained.</p> | |||
| <p>We’re left in a world where we still suffer from the same anxiety, pressure, and burnout as before. Except this time we get paid less, if we have a job at all.</p> | |||
| <p>This is an obviously worse way of making software. It makes for software that’s less reliable, less effective, and less productive for the end user.</p> | |||
| <p>But the market dynamics of tech – the global dominance of a handful of oligopolies that aggressively lock out their competitors – mean that software quality doesn’t matter. Competitors that make better software won’t be able to grow unless they get past the gatekeepers. Software that’s outright awful will still succeed because it genuinely doesn’t matter whether Microsoft, Google, Adobe, or Apple products actually work.</p> | |||
| <p>We still have to use them if we want to use our computers and work in a modern office.</p> | |||
| <p>The ongoing labour arbitrage – the deskilling of developers – can only be addressed with collective bargaining and union action.</p> | |||
| <p>But the overall monopoly or oligopoly dominance of tech can only be fixed with pro-competition anti-trust regulation.</p> | |||
| <p>And nothing coming out of either the US or Europe comes close to addressing the true problem, which is that these companies are simply <strong>too big</strong>.</p> | |||
| <p><em>The tech industry will never be a genuinely free market as long as big tech companies are allowed to be as big as they are today.</em></p> | |||
| <p>What we have today is a centrally-planned economy by MBA sociopaths, operated as a looting ground for the rich.</p> | |||
| <p>It will never function on normal competitive, supply-and-demand market principles.</p> | |||
| <p>Because, even though a healthier market is the only thing that has a hope of a return to the fast-growing tech industry of prior decades, it would also require big tech companies to accept a smaller slice of the overall pie and allow new competitors to grow.</p> | |||
| <p>Why do that when you can strangle the market and keep the entire corpse for yourself?</p> | |||
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| @@ -0,0 +1,67 @@ | |||
| title: The deskilling of web dev is harming the product but, more importantly, it's damaging our health | |||
| url: https://www.baldurbjarnason.com/2024/the-deskilling-of-web-dev-is-harming-us-all/ | |||
| hash_url: 8672047b982b09475a59605ed0f9a011 | |||
| archive_date: 2024-05-21 | |||
| og_image: https://www.baldurbjarnason.com/favicon-96x96.png | |||
| description: Even before the web developer job market became as dire as it is today, I was regularly seeing developers burn out and leave the industry. Some left for good; some only temporarily. | |||
| favicon: https://www.baldurbjarnason.com/dark-bird.svg | |||
| language: en_US | |||
| <p>Even before the web developer job market became as dire as it is today, I was regularly seeing developers burn out and leave the industry. Some left for good; some only temporarily. Many have outright destroyed their health through anxiety and burnout.</p> | |||
| <p>The only other industry I’m familiar with that has the same levels of physically-demanding anxiety and worker churn is trade publishing – and that’s an industry famous for <em>literally</em> paying below-subsistence wages for the cities they’re based in.</p> | |||
| <p><em>“Maybe I should try to find a job that doesn’t involve web development?"</em></p> | |||
| <p>Even those still in web dev are feeling burnt out and the reason for that is – unfortunately – quite straightforward:</p> | |||
| <p><em>We’re expected to keep up with multiple specialities that, in a sensible industry, would each be a dedicated field.</em></p> | |||
| <ul> | |||
| <li>CSS isn’t just a complex language, it’s one of the most advanced graphics, layout, and typesetting languages available in computing.</li> | |||
| <li>HTML and the DOM are two language that interweave to create a complex and dynamic environment that is the foundation of <em>everything</em> we do in web dev and, by proxy, every industry that has adopted parts of the web stack for their own purposes. They are a deep speciality even without adding JavaScript into the mix.</li> | |||
| <li>JavaScript has become a complex language with a number of built-in APIs and language features that rivals that of many other programming languages. That’s despite <em>not having a proper standard library.</em></li> | |||
| <li>HTTP <em>on its own</em> is a fully fledged field of study as a platform of multiple integrated protocols (1.1, 2, and 3) that have little in common except for their shared idioms. That’s without getting into WebRTC.</li> | |||
| <li>Web server development is yet another field of study with issues that are completely unique and not shared with the other parts of the web stack, except for maybe…</li> | |||
| <li>Service workers, which require a completely different mode of thinking from the rest of front-end development and have more in common with web server programming than DOM manipulation.</li> | |||
| <li>Workers have become a full-featured parallel programming paradigm.</li> | |||
| <li><em>Testing</em>, irrespective of the language or platform, is yet another complex specialisation we all just pretend doesn’t exist.</li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p><em>Of course you’re having problems keeping up with everything that’s happening in web dev. <strong>Of course!</strong></em></p> | |||
| <p>You’re expected to follow half-a-dozen different specialities, each relatively fast-paced and complex in its own right, and you’re supposed to do it without cutting into the hours where you do actual paid web development.</p> | |||
| <p>Worse yet, you’re not actually expected to <em>use</em> any of it directly. Instead you’re <em>also</em> supposed to follow the developments of framework abstractions that are layered on top of the foundation specialities, at least doubling the number of complex fields a web dev has to follow and understand, right out of the gate.</p> | |||
| <p>This is <em>immense</em> – an expectation so mind-boggling that we need to acknowledge just how remarkable it is that each of us has managed as well as we have.</p> | |||
| <p>The framework knowledge itself is also <em>perishable</em>. Not because your memory or physical coordination deteriorates (though that happens too), but because frameworks change more and faster than the underlying platform.</p> | |||
| <p>I learned how the CSS Grid works over a decade ago. Even if I hadn’t kept up with CSS, everything I learned back then still works today. I could use the basic techniques of the CSS Grid as it existed in 2014 and that code would work unchanged today.</p> | |||
| <p>The recommended semantics for HTML have changed, but the basic principle of list or table markup is the same as it was over <strong>twenty-five years ago</strong>, when I first began. If twenty-something Baldur was cast forward in time to the year 2024 and asked to put together an HTML table that rendered in a modern browser, he’d probably have a harder time figuring out the modern browser UI than with the coding task itself.</p> | |||
| <p>But the React skills I have are all out of date and obsolete. I would effectively have to start from scratch even if I wanted to get back into React work. Everything React has changed in ways that are fundamentally incompatible.</p> | |||
| <p>The same applies to my skills in Svelte. I first got into Svelte with version 3. They’re now releasing version 5 and are <a href="https://svelte-5-preview.vercel.app/docs/runes">completely changing their approach to state management.</a> My old Svelte skills are obsolete but they’re still there, useless and cluttering up my memory.</p> | |||
| <p>Framework skills are <em>perishable</em>, but are easily just as complicated as the foundation layers of the web platform and it takes just as much – if not more – effort to keep them up to date.</p> | |||
| <p>We’re expected to do everything, keep up with everything, adapt to constant changes, and understand multiple conflicting architectural paradigms ranging from immediate mode rendering, to relational databases, to REST API designs, to both imperative and declarative programming, to complex state querying languages like GraphQL, to all of the various intricacies of how CSS handles rendering.</p> | |||
| <p>We’re made to do all this while watching our peers lose their jobs, our employers savage society through pervasive surveillance and collaboration with authoritarian companies, and our data centres suck up the entire water supply for entire municipalities.</p> | |||
| <p>No wonder we’re all fucked up emotionally and mentally.</p> | |||
| <h2 id="this-is-what-_deskilling_-looks-like">This is what <em>deskilling</em> looks like</h2> | |||
| <p>These are all distinct specialities and web dev teams <em>should</em> be composed of cross-functional specialists.</p> | |||
| <p>You shouldn’t have to be figuring out both front end and server-side programming. That’s two separate skill sets.</p> | |||
| <p>Companies should have CSS specialists on their teams who take care of the complexity of providing stylesheets, with class and attribute hooks, that work well with the project’s architecture and design. Those specialists should be working with the front-end engineers and the UX designers to figure out how best to implement in CSS what the project needs.</p> | |||
| <p>Once you understand this, it becomes obvious why Tailwind is so popular among developers: Tailwind provides a loose approximation of the experience you would get from having a dedicated CSS expert on board. <em>“Here are some classes and attribute hooks. Just use them in your markup and everything will look great. Of course I’ve also written documentation for you. What do you take me for?"</em></p> | |||
| <p>That abstraction falls apart quite often because Tailwind is too thin of a layer to hide the complexities of CSS. Nodes in the DOM can affect the rendering of both their ancestors and descendants and it’s very easy to run into a situation where, for example, <code>position: sticky</code> doesn’t work and the utility class model makes figuring out the issue much harder.</p> | |||
| <p>Unlike a collaboration with an actual expert, Tailwind demands its own expertise and quickly begins to require an understanding of how the underlying CSS stack works, undermining much of it’s own purpose.</p> | |||
| <p>But the promise it offers is tantalising: it’s your CSS buddy so you don’t have to know CSS.</p> | |||
| <p><em>Of course</em> developers love this. Why wouldn’t they? I’m sure they’d love having a friendly real-life specialist that takes care of all things CSS even more, but we all know that’s not going to happen in our current deskilled industry.</p> | |||
| <p>So Tailwind it is.</p> | |||
| <p>This is deskilling. It lets employers and managers pretend that web project teams don’t need CSS expertise – or even just pretend that CSS expertise just doesn’t exist at all. <em>This is what Tailwind is for.</em></p> | |||
| <h2 id="instead-of-learning-from-history-we-double-down-and-make-things-worse">Instead of learning from history, we double down and make things worse</h2> | |||
| <p>Organisations that hire web developers and ship web-based projects could have responded to recent changes in the tech ecosystem by re-specialising.</p> | |||
| <p>Cross-functional teams of specialists are almost certainly much more productive than a team that consists of identikit full-stack developers and a mostly untrained PM who lives in a constant state of anxiety and panic.</p> | |||
| <p>Specialists cost more because you either need to pay more to hire them, or you need to pay for the time it takes for somebody to become a specialist. But the productivity improvements should more than outweigh the cost. Especially considering that a junior specialist often has the same capabilities in their field as a senior generalist, which means a whole host of previously intractable technical problems suddenly become tractable when your teams are composed of cross-functional specialists.</p> | |||
| <p>But instead we’re all-in on deskilling the industry. Not content with removing CSS and HTML almost entirely from the job market, we’re now shifting towards the model where devs are instead “AI” wranglers. The web dev of the future will be an underpaid generalist who pokes at chatbot output until it runs without error, pokes at a copilot until it generates tests that pass with some coverage, and ships code that nobody understand and can’t be fixed if something goes wrong.</p> | |||
| <p>If you think companies are going to pay “AI” wranglers senior-level pay in the long term, or that they’re going to pay for the time it takes to rewrite or properly comprehend the code being generated, then you’re missing the point of <em>why</em> employers are adopting the technology.</p> | |||
| <p>The point is to pay fewer of us less: replace senior coders with junior, specialists with generalists, and the trained with untrained.</p> | |||
| <p>We’re left in a world where we still suffer from the same anxiety, pressure, and burnout as before. Except this time we get paid less, if we have a job at all.</p> | |||
| <p>This is an obviously worse way of making software. It makes for software that’s less reliable, less effective, and less productive for the end user.</p> | |||
| <p>But the market dynamics of tech – the global dominance of a handful of oligopolies that aggressively lock out their competitors – mean that software quality doesn’t matter. Competitors that make better software won’t be able to grow unless they get past the gatekeepers. Software that’s outright awful will still succeed because it genuinely doesn’t matter whether Microsoft, Google, Adobe, or Apple products actually work.</p> | |||
| <p>We still have to use them if we want to use our computers and work in a modern office.</p> | |||
| <p>The ongoing labour arbitrage – the deskilling of developers – can only be addressed with collective bargaining and union action.</p> | |||
| <p>But the overall monopoly or oligopoly dominance of tech can only be fixed with pro-competition anti-trust regulation.</p> | |||
| <p>And nothing coming out of either the US or Europe comes close to addressing the true problem, which is that these companies are simply <strong>too big</strong>.</p> | |||
| <p><em>The tech industry will never be a genuinely free market as long as big tech companies are allowed to be as big as they are today.</em></p> | |||
| <p>What we have today is a centrally-planned economy by MBA sociopaths, operated as a looting ground for the rich.</p> | |||
| <p>It will never function on normal competitive, supply-and-demand market principles.</p> | |||
| <p>Because, even though a healthier market is the only thing that has a hope of a return to the fast-growing tech industry of prior decades, it would also require big tech companies to accept a smaller slice of the overall pie and allow new competitors to grow.</p> | |||
| <p>Why do that when you can strangle the market and keep the entire corpse for yourself?</p> | |||
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| <p class="p4"><i>For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.</i></p> | |||
| <p class="p5"><span class="s2">— <a href="https://www.refsmmat.com/files/reflections.pdf"><span class="s3">Richard Feynman</span></a></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/mars_sarlacc.jpg" alt="Sunken pit on Mars with 30 meter wide hole showing cavern beneath"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Entrance to underground cavern on Pavonis Mons. HiRISE, 2011</p> | |||
| <p>The goal of this essay is to persuade you that we shouldn’t send human beings to Mars, at least not anytime soon. Landing on Mars with existing technology would be a destructive, wasteful stunt whose only legacy would be to ruin the greatest natural history experiment in the Solar System. It would no more open a new era of spaceflight than a Phoenician sailor crossing the Atlantic in 500 B.C. would have opened up the New World. And it wouldn’t even be that much fun.</p> | |||
| <p>The buildup to Mars would not look like Apollo, but a long series of ISS-like flights to nowhere. If your main complaint about the International Space Station is that it’s too exciting and has a distracting view of Earth out the window, then you’ll love watching ISS Jr. drift around doing bone studies in deep space. But if you think rockets, adventure, exploration, and discovery are more fun than counting tumors in mice, then the slow and timorous Mars program will only break your heart.</p> | |||
| <p>Sticking a flag in the Martian dust would cost something north of half a trillion dollars <a id="fnlink1"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn1"><sup>[1]</sup></a>, with no realistic prospect of landing before 2050 <a id="fnlink2"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn2"><sup>[2]</sup></a>. To borrow a quote from John Young, keeping such a program funded through fifteen consecutive Congresses would require a series “of continuous miracles, interspersed with acts of God”. <a id="fnlink3"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn3"><sup>[3]</sup></a> Like the Space Shuttle and Space Station before it, the Mars program would exist in a state of permanent redesign by budget committee until any logic or sense in the original proposal had been wrung out of it.</p> | |||
| <p>When the great moment finally came, and the astronauts had taken their first Martian selfie, strict mission rules meant to prevent contamination and minimize risk would leave the crew dependent on the same robots they’d been sent at enormous cost to replace. Only the microbes that lived in the spacecraft, uninformed of the mission rules, would be free to go wander outside. They would become the real explorers of Mars, and if their luck held, its first colonists.</p> | |||
| <p>How long such a program could last is anyone’s guess. But if landing on the Moon taught us anything, it’s that taxpayer enthusiasm for rock collecting has hard limits. At ~$100B per mission, and with launch windows to Mars one election cycle apart<a id="fnlink4"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn4"> <sup>[4]</sup></a>, NASA would be playing a form of programmatic Russian roulette. It’s hard to imagine landings going past the single digits before cost or an accident shut the program down. And once the rockets had retired to their museums, humanity would have nothing to show for its Mars adventure except some rocks and a bunch of unspeakably angry astrobiologists. It would in every way be the opposite of exploration.</p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/blue_dunes.jpg" alt="Blue dunes on Mars"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Polar sand dunes, HiRISE, 2009</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">It wasn’t always like this. There was a time when going to Mars made sense, back when astronauts were a cheap and lightweight alternative to costly machinery, and the main concern about finding life on Mars was whether all the trophy pelts could fit in the spacecraft. No one had been in space long enough to discover the degenerative effects of freefall, and it was widely accepted that not just exploration missions, but complicated instruments like space telescopes and weather satellites, were going to need a permanent crew <a id="fnlink5"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn5"><sup>[5]</sup></a>.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">But fifty years of progress in miniaturization and software changed the balance between robots and humans in space. Between 1960 and 2020, space probes improved by something like six orders of magnitude<a id="fnlink6"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn6"><sup>[6]</sup></a>, while the technologies of long-duration spaceflight did not. Boiling the water out of urine still looks the same in 2023 as it did in 1960, or for that matter 1060. Today’s automated spacecraft are not only strictly more capable<a id="fnlink7"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn7"><sup>[7]</sup></a> than human astronauts, but cost about a hundred times less<a class="fnote" id="fnlink8"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn8"> <sup>[8]</sup></a> to send (though it’s hard to be exact, since astronauts have not gone anywhere since 1972<a id="fnlink9"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn9"><sup>[9]</sup></a>). </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The imbalance between human and robot is so overwhelming that, despite the presence of a $250 billion<a id="fnlink10"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn10"><sup>[10]</sup></a> International Space Station National Laboratory, every major discovery made in space this century has come from robotic spacecraft <a id="fnlink11"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn11"><sup>[11]</sup></a>. In 2023, we simply take it for granted that if a rocket goes up carrying passengers, it’s not going to get any work done.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">As for that space station, the jewel of human spaceflight, it exists in a state of nearly perfect teological closure, its only purpose being to teach its creators how to build future spacecraft like it. The ISS crew spend most of their time fixing the machinery that keeps them alive, and when they have a free moment for science, they tend to study the effect of space on themselves. At 22 years old<a id="fnlink12"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn12"> <sup>[12]</sup></a>, the ISS is still as dependent on fresh meals and clean laundry sent from home as the most feckless grad student. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">And yet this orbiting end-in-itself is also the closest we’ve come to building an interplanetary spacecraft. The idea of sending something like it on a three year journey to Mars does not get engineers’ hearts racing, at least not in the good way.</p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/mars_polar_spring.jpg" alt="Spring in the polar areas of Mars"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Mars in the springtime. The dots and dark lines are conjectured to be flow phenomena connected with sublimating dry ice. HiRISE, 2008</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Mars is also not the planet we took it for. The first photos Mariner 4 sent back in 1965 were shocking; instead of bucolic canals they showed a waterless, cratered wasteland not much different from the Moon. Ten years later, the Viking landers confirmed that Mars was a frozen, desiccated world bathed in sterilizing radiation, where any Earth creature that arrived unprotected would be dead before it hit the ground. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">But as orbiters started arriving in the 2000’s, Mars got a glow-up. The surface might be dry, but in most places there was water ice just underneath. Dynamic surface features hinted that water (or at least brine) was flowing to the surface from deep underground. In 2020, radar surveys found evidence of at least two subglacial lakes<a id="fnlink13"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn13"><sup>[13]</sup></a> under the south polar cap, strongly implying a reservoir of geothermal heat<a id="fnlink14"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn14"><sup>[14]</sup></a>. And earlier this month, an article in Nature announced the discovery of an active mantle plume<a id="fnlink15"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn15"><span class="s6"><sup>[15]</sup></span></a> below Elysium Planitia, catapulting Mars onto the VIP list of geologically active worlds.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The news from the ground also got better. Arriving at Gale Crater in 2012, the Curiosity rover found itself looking at an ordinary lake bed, complete with organic sediment and odd stick-like structures<a id="fnlink16"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn16"><span class="s6"><sup>[16]</sup></span></a> that would be called fossils if we found them on Earth. The crater had been habitable for millions of years<a id="fnlink17"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn17"><sup>[17]</sup></a> in the past, and something in it was still emitting methane at night<a id="fnlink18"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn18"><sup>[18]</sup></a>. Over in its own crater, the <i>Perseverance</i> rover found complex organic molecules of indeterminate origin.</p> | |||
| <p class="p12"><br></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/black_dunes.jpg" alt="Black sand dunes on Mars"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Sand dunes, HiRISE 2016</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">But the really exciting news for Mars was the discovery of unexpected life on Earth. Microbiologists had long suspected that the 12,000 or so<a id="fnlink19"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn19"><sup>[19]</sup></a> known species of microbes were just a fraction of the total, with perhaps another hundred thousand<a id="fnlink20"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn20"><span class="s7"><sup>[20]</sup></span></a> “unculturable” species left to discover. But when new sequencing technology became available at the turn of the century, it showed the number of species might be as high as <i>one</i> <i>trillion</i> <a id="fnlink21"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn21"><sup>[21]</sup></a>. In the genomic gold rush that followed, researchers discovered not just dozens of unsuspected microbial phyla<a id="fnlink22"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn22"><sup>[22]</sup></a>, but two entire new branches of life<a id="fnlink23"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn23"><sup>[23]</sup></a>.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">These new techniques confirmed that earth’s crust is inhabited to a depth of kilometers by a ‘deep biosphere’ of slow-living microbes nourished by geochemical processes and radioactive decay. One group of microbes was discovered still living their best lives<a id="fnlink24"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn24"><span class="s6"><sup>[24]</sup></span></a> 100 million years after being sealed in sedimentary rock. Another was found enjoying a rewarding, long-term relationship with fungal partners deep beneath the seafloor<a id="fnlink25"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn25"><span class="s8"><sup>[25]</sup></span></a>. This underground ecology, which we have barely started to explore, might account for a third<a id="fnlink26"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn26"><sup>[26]</sup></a> of the biomass on earth. </p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/tree_of_life.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Our family tree, circa 2016. Branches with red dots are ones we know nothing about. <br>Another 1,300 microbial phyla may remain undiscovered <a id="fnlink27"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn27"><span class="s6"><sup>[27]</sup></span></a>. You and I are in the bottom right corner.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">At this point, it is hard to <i>not</i> find life on Earth. Microbes have been discovered living in cloud tops<a id="fnlink28"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn28"><span class="s9"><sup>[28]</sup></span></a>, inside nuclear reactor cores<a id="fnlink29"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn29"><span class="s6"><sup>[29]</sup></span></a>, and in aerosols high in the stratosphere<a id="fnlink30"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn30"><span class="s6"><sup>[30]</sup></span></a>. Bacteria not only stay viable for years on the space station hull, but sometimes do better out there<a id="fnlink31"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn31"><span class="s10"><sup>[31]</sup></span></a> than inside the spacecraft. Environments long thought to be sterile, like anoxic brines at the bottom of the Mediterranean sea<a id="fnlink32"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn32"><span class="s6"><sup>[32]</sup></span></a>, are in fact as rich in microbial life as a gas station hot dog. Even microbes trapped for millions of years in salt crystals<a id="fnlink33"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn33"><span class="s6"><sup>[33]</sup></span></a> or Antarctic ice<a id="fnlink34"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn34"><span class="s11"><sup>[34]</sup></span></a> have shown they can wake up and get back to metabolizing<a id="fnlink35"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn35"><span class="s12"><sup>[35]</sup></span></a> without so much as a cup of coffee. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The fact that we failed to notice 99.999% of life on Earth until a few years ago is unsettling and has implications for Mars. The existence of a deep biosphere in particular narrows the habitability gap between our planets to the point where it probably doesn’t exist—there is likely at least one corner of Mars that an Earth organism could call home. It also adds support to the theory that life may have started as an interplanetary infection, a literal Venereal disease that spread across the early solar system by meteorite<a id="fnlink36"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn36"><span class="s8"><sup>[36]</sup></span></a>. If that is the case, and if our distant relatives are still alive in some deep Martian cave, then just about the worst way to go looking for them would be to land in a septic spacecraft. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/polar_dust_devil2.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Dust devil tracks on Mars. What causes the dark parallel lines is still unknown. HiRISE, 2009.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">But the fact that a Mars landing stopped making sense has not had the slightest impact on NASA’s plan to go there in a rocket-propelled terrarium. Though facts may change, and technology may change, one thing will always remain the same—we’re going to Mars, 1950’s style.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">It is difficult to get NASA leadership to explain the purpose of this mission, not because they're obdurate, but because they seem genuinely confused by the question. We’ve already been to the Moon, and Mars comes after the Moon. What part of that is not clear? The idea that a human landing might be in tension with other forms of exploration, or that the might need to make a case for the mission, does not enter into their thinking. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Last summer, at a press briefing on the Moon to Mars program<a id="fnlink37"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn37"><sup>[37]</sup></a>, a journalist asked NASA Administrator Bill Nelson to explain to Americans in plain language why NASA wanted to send astronauts to Mars and to the Moon. His reply is worth quoting in full:</p> | |||
| <blockquote>“This is what I would tell them. First of all, we are explorers and adventurers as a species. That basically is the fulfilment of our destiny. But, in that exploration, we’re going to learn new things and develop new things that is going to improve, just as it’s been under our space program, our lives here on Earth. | |||
| <p>Last week I was in Kansas, I was with a corn farmer, where we are giving him real time information on the moisture content of the soil in this crop and next to it, that crop, so that he knows what to plant. Those instruments obviously for example can pick up disease, pick up disease in forest that then become susceptible to fire. That certainly is going to help our life here on Earth. And those are things that have come out of the space program, things that we can’t even think of. | |||
| </p><p>But there’s more. When we go to Mars in the late 30’s<a id="fnlink38"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn38"><sup>[38]</sup></a>, just think how much more we’re going to understand about our Solar System, and about the Universe, as a result of things like many of our instruments out there, not the least of which is the James Webb Space Telescope. We may have by that time found an asteroid that we don’t have to protect Earth on, as we want to try with DART in another month, but we may find an asteroid that has valuable materials on it, metals, that we can harvest. By 2040, we may have detected life elsewhere in the universe. And think what that’s going to do in our yearning for exploration. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> | |||
| <p>So I can’t answer specifically the question, “what happens after Mars?” I just know we’re going to know a lot more between now and then. And our discoveries and our exploration are going to continue. And the apt analogy was given by [Associate Administrator] Bhavya [Lal]. When Thomas Jefferson sent Lewis and Clark all the way to the Pacific coast, look what happened as a result!</p> | |||
| </span></p></blockquote> | |||
| <p>I include Nelson’s full remarks because this is the most substantive explanation I’ve found from NASA for their Mars landing. <a id="fnlink40"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn40"><sup>[40]</sup></a> Note that none of the programs he references (Global Agricultural Monitoring, DART, Landsat, the Webb Space Telescope, and TESS) have any connection to human spaceflight, let alone Mars. The only parts of this answer that apply to Mars are the bits about destiny, exploration, and Lewis and Clark (who I have to stress were looking for an ocean of liquid water). | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">If the head of NOAA Ocean Exploration (budget: $25 million) or the U.S. Antarctic Program ($350 million) held a press conference announcing a plan to fulfill human destiny, they’d be carrying their belongings home in a cardboard box before sundown. But our space agency is held to a lower standard. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">All this would be fine if it was just talk. But NASA spent more on their Moon and Mars programs in 2022<a id="fnlink41"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn41"><sup>[41]</sup></a> than the total budget of the National Science Foundation<a id="fnlink42"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn42"><sup>[42]</sup></a>. And in 2024, they plan to start launching pieces of a new space station, the Gateway, which by the laws of orbital bureaucracy will lock us in to decades of having to invent reasons to go visit the thing.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Somehow we’ve embarked on the biggest project in history even though it has no articulable purpose, offers no benefits, and will cost taxpayers more than a good-sized war. Even the builders of the Great Pyramid at Giza could at least explain what it was <i>for</i>. And yet this project has sailed through an otherwise gridlocked system with the effortlessness of a Pentagon budget. Presidents of both parties now make landing on Mars an official goal of US space policy. Even billionaires who made their fortune automating labor on Earth agree that Mars must be artisanally explored by hand. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The whole thing is getting weird.</p> | |||
| <p class="p12"><br></p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/mars_volunteers.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Volunteers carry out a mock mission at the Mars Desert Research Station in Utah (photo: <span class="s13">Brian van der Brug)</span></p> | |||
| <h2>The Mars Religion</h2> | |||
| <p class="p7">When you hold on to a belief so strongly that neither facts nor reason can change it, what you are doing is no longer science, but religion. So I’ve come to believe the best way to look at our Mars program is as a faith-based initiative. There is a small cohort of people who really <i>believe</i> in going to Mars, the way some people believe in ghosts or cryptocurrency, and this group has an outsize effect on our space program.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">At NASA, the faith takes the form of a cargo cult. The agency has persuaded itself that re-enacting the Moon landings with enough fidelity will reward them with a trip to Mars, bringing back the limitless budgets, uncomplicated patriotism, and rapt public attention of the early sixties. They send up their rockets with the same touching faith that keeps Amtrak hauling empty dining cars across the prairie, dreaming of the golden age of rail. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Outside of NASA, the Mars faith shades darker. It is part of a transhumanist worldview that holds mankind must either spread to the stars or die. Elon Musk, the Martian spiritual leader, has talked about the need to “preserve the light of consciousness” by making us a multiplanetary species. As he sees it, Mars is our only way off of a planet crawling with existential risk. And it's not just enough to explore mars; we have make it a backup for all civilization. Failing to stock it with subsistence farming incels would be tantamount to humanity lying down in its open grave.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">That is some heavy stuff to lay on a small, rocky world. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">I think it’s time we brought the Mars talk down to earth, and started approaching a landing there as an aerospace project rather than the fulfillment of God’s plan. But so far, public discourse on Mars has mostly been about whose rocket is bigger and which billionaire can get his up the fastest. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Since we’re already paying for this program, why not look at it in more detail? It's pretty clear what a Mars mission would look like, how long it would take, and where the big technology gaps are. We’ve learned a great deal about Mars itself, and have twenty years of ISS technical reports to work from. So let's have ourselves a good old fashioned nerdfight. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>In what follows, I want to lay out the case against Mars in more technical detail than I’ve been able to find elsewhere. Then we can argue about it online, on the merits, like space nerds used to. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The argument I’ll make has three parts:</p> | |||
| <h2>1. Research</h2> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/nyberg_eye_exam.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Astronaut Karen Nyberg performs an eye exam on the ISS in 2013</p> | |||
| <p>The things that make going to Mars hard are not fun space things, like needing a bigger rocket, but tedious limits of human physiology. Understanding these limits well enough to get to Mars will require years of human experiments beyond low Earth orbit<a id="fnlink43"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn43"><sup>[43]</sup></a>.</p> | |||
| <p>In particular, we need preliminary data on the physiological effects of partial gravity,<a id="fnlink44"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn44"><sup>[44]</sup></a> and a better estimate of the risk from heavy ion radiation<a id="fnlink45"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn45"><sup>[45]</sup></a>. Since core tradeoffs around crew safety depend on the outcome, these experiments have to be done before NASA can finalize a mission design.</p> | |||
| <p>Absent a miracle in appropriations, the only practical place to do this research will be on the Moon<a id="fnlink46"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn46"><sup>[46]</sup></a>. This puts a working lunar base on the critical path to a Mars landing, and means any delay or snag in NASA’s Artemis program automatically pushes back the earliest date for a Mars landing.</p> | |||
| <p>This research gap is what makes it impossible to get to Mars quickly, even with unlimited funding<a id="fnlink47"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn47"><sup>[47]</sup></a>. Unless you’re willing to risk the safety of the crew, there’s no way to avoid watching astronauts sit around on the Moon for a few years with their Geiger counters out.</p> | |||
| <p class="p10"><br></p> | |||
| <h2>2. Engineering</h2> | |||
| <p class="p7"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/isspresso_in_action.jpg" alt="Interior of Skylab"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Italian astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti tests ISSpresso, her country's contribution to the ISS life support system, in 2015</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The chief technical obstacle to a Mars landing is not propulsion, but a lack of reliable closed-loop life support<a id="fnlink48"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn48"><sup>[48]</sup></a>. With our current capability, NASA would struggle to keep a crew alive for six months on the White House lawn, let alone for years in a Martian yurt. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The technology program required to close this gap would be remarkably circular, with no benefits outside the field of applied zero gravity zookeeping. The web of Rube Goldberg devices that recycles floating animal waste on the space station has already cost twice its weight in gold<a id="fnlink49"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn49"><sup>[49]</sup></a> and there is little appetite for it here on Earth, where plants do a better job for free.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">I would compare keeping primates alive in spacecraft to trying to build a jet engine out of raisins. Both are colossal engineering problems, possibly the hardest ever attempted, but it does not follow that they are problems worth solving. In both cases, the difficulty flows from a very specific design constraint, and it’s worth revisiting that constraint one or ten times before starting to perform miracles of engineering.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">What makes life support so vexing is that all the subcomponents interact with each other and with the crew. There’s no such thing as a life support unit test; you have to run the whole system in space under conditions that mimic the target mission. Reliability engineering for life support involves solving mysteries like why gunk formed on a certain washer on Day 732, then praying on the next run that your fix doesn’t break on Day 733. The process repeats until the first crew makes it home alive (figuratively speaking), at which point you declare the technology reliable and chill the champagne.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Unlike the medical research, there’s no way to predict how long these trials might take. A typical exploration profile<a id="fnlink50"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn50"><sup>[50]</sup></a> needs two different kinds of life support (for the spacecraft and the surface) that together have to work for about 1000 days. The spacecraft also has to demonstrate that it can go dormant for the time the crew is on Mars and still work when it wakes up. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Twenty years of tinkering with the much simpler systems on the space station have brought them no closer to reliability. And yet to get a crew to Mars, we’d need to get this stuff working like a Swiss watch. Humanity does not need a billion dollar shit dehydrator that can work for three years in zero gravity, but a Mars mission can’t leave Earth without it.</p> | |||
| <h2>3. Contamination</h2> | |||
| <p class="p6"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/heat_shield.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Debris left by the Perserverance landing, photographed in April 2022 by the Ingenuity helicopter.</p> | |||
| <p> Humans who land on Mars will not be able to avoid introducing a large ecosystem of microbes to the area around the landing site. If any fugitives from the spacecraft make their way to a survivable niche on Mars, we may never be able to tell whether biotic signatures later found on the planet are traces of native life, or were left by escapees from our first Martian outhouse. Like careless investigators who didn’t wear gloves to a crime scene, we would risk permanently destroying the evidence we came to collect.</p> | |||
| <p>“No exploration without contamination” would be a good phrase to stencil in red letters above the airlock (ideally before welding it shut). Contamination risk is a real showstopper for Mars, one of those problems that gets worse the more carefully you look at it. It should put the planet off limits to human explorers until we’re either sure that there is no pathway from the spacecraft to a habitable Martian environment, or are confident for other reasons that the consequences don’t matter<a id="fnlink51"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn51"><sup>[51]</sup></a>. </p> | |||
| <p>Even the astronaut corps recognizes that exploring Mars and keeping it pristine are irreconcilable activities, like trying to drill for oil in a cleanroom. The problem goes beyond practical questions like how to store 17 months of astronaut shit and gets to the crux of the matter: why is bringing a leaky, bacteria-filled terrarium to Mars step one<a id="fnlink52"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn52"><sup>[52]</sup></a> in our search for Martian life? What incredible ability do astronauts have that justifies taking this risk?</p> | |||
| <p>Skeptics point out that Earth microbes have already landed on Mars, both on robotic landers<a id="fnlink53"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn53"><sup>[53]</sup></a> and the occasional meteorite. But as we’ll see, the diverse microbiome that would travel with a human crew poses a qualitatively different threat<a id="fnlink54"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn54"><sup>[54]</sup></a>, and would have a far better chance of getting settled on Mars, than the sad loners clinging to rovers like <i>Curiosity</i>.</p> | |||
| <p>Even if you don’t care about contamination, NASA is required by treaty to care<a id="fnlink55"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn55"><sup>[55]</sup></a>, and that has severe consequences for mission design. It means human landing sites will intentionally be kept far from anything interesting. The phenomena of greatest scientific interest on Mars (gullies, recurrent slope lineae, intermittent methane sources, and underground water) will all be off-limits to astronauts. So will terrain features like caves or lava tubes that could conceivably shelter life. The crew will not live in a Martian pueblo, but something resembling a level 4 biocontainment facility<a id="fnlink56"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn56"><sup>[56]</sup></a>. And even there, they’ll have to do their lab work remotely, the same way it’s done today, raising the question of what exactly the hundreds of billions of dollars we’re spending to get to Mars are buying us.</p> | |||
| <p class="p10"><br></p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/ultimi_scopuri2.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Ice near Ultimi Scopuri. ESA/Mars Express, 2022</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">That’s my case against Mars in a nutshell: it comes front-loaded with expensive research, the engineering is mostly port-a-potty chemistry, and the best-case outcome is that thirty years from now, we’ll get to watch someone remotely operate a soil scoop from Mars instead of Pasadena.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">I understand not wanting to let go of a cherished dream. But I also have a cherished dream, which is to see space exploration happen in my lifetime. And it is hard to overlook that the $93 billion<a id="fnlink57"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn57"><sup>[57]</sup></a> NASA has already spent through 2025 to not land anyone on the Moon would be enough<a id="fnlink58"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn58"><sup>[58]</sup></a> to send probes to every world in the solar system, including moons we know have oceans of liquid water<a id="fnlink59"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn59"><sup>[59]</sup></a> and two entire planetary systems that haven’t been visited since <i>Voyager 2</i> gave them a quick once-over in the 1980’s.<a id="fnlink60"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn60"><sup>[60]</sup></a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7">And let’s not forget Mars! For my part, I would love to know what causes recurrent slope lineae, why there is methane at Gale Crater, and whether anything is swimming in the subsurface lakes discovered in 2018. Orbiters have already found dozens of creepy caves and pits, any one of which would be worth looking into. And the discovery that Mars is geologically active should inspire a search for life deep underground. Exploring these environments remotely won’t be easy, but whatever technology we invent to do it will pay dividends on missions across the solar system. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/spots_dune.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Polar dunes showing carbon dioxide frost and sublimation phenomena, HiRISE 2007</p> | |||
| <h2>ON THIS PLANET WE BELIEVE IN SCIENCE</h2> | |||
| <p class="p7">We’re at a rare moment when the United States is in between white elephant space projects. The ISS is nearing the end of its life<a id="fnlink61"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn61"><sup>[61]</sup></a>, and tensions between NASA and Roscosmos have filled all hearts with hope that we can soon drop the thing into the ocean. For the first time since Nixon, Americans have a chance to choose a bolder future for their space program.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">One path forward would be to build on the technological revolution of the past fifty years and go explore the hell out of space with robots. This future is available to us right now. Simply redirecting the $11.6 billion budget<a id="fnlink62"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn62"><sup>[62]</sup></a> for human space flight would be enough to staff up the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and go from launching one major project per decade to multiple planetary probes and telescopes a year<a id="fnlink63"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn63"><sup>[63]</sup></a>. It would be the start of the greatest era of discovery in history.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">A different path forward would take us to Mars the slow, dangerous, and hard way. It would take decades and cost hundreds of billions of dollars. It requires developing a solipsistic technology that can’t take us anywhere else except Venus<a id="fnlink64"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn64"><sup>[64]</sup></a>. And it is not guaranteed to work. If there’s a reason this plan is better than going exploring, NASA should articulate it to the people who are going to be paying the bill.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">NASA has spent decades learning how to survive in the harsh environment of Congress, and that knowledge is bearing fruit today. The machinery that brought us two pointless multibillion dollar space projects has been spun up again to take us to Mars. Like George Lucas preparing to release another awful prequel, NASA is hoping that cool spaceships and nostalgia will be enough to keep everyone from noticing that their story makes no sense. But you can't lie your way to Mars, no matter how sincerely you believe in what you're doing. | |||
| <br><br> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <h2>The Other Mars Program</h2> | |||
| <p class="p11"><span class="s15"><b><i>“</i></b><i>Mere failure to realize a long-term, aspirational goal is not fraud” <br>—lawyers representing Tesla, November 2022</i></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/spacex_fantasy.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Of course, in 2022 there is an alternative vision for Mars exploration centered on the activities of Elon Musk. If NASA is Amtrak in space, then SpaceX is the Fyre Festival with rockets, a glamorous effort led by a hype man who promises that every logistical problem will melt away if we can just get people to the destination.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">What can I say about Musk? He likes rockets and drama, and his approach to every engineering problem is to promise to solve it with cool technology that he’ll have ready in Q2 of next year. This has the effect of turning technical discussions into debates over the character and achievements of Elon Musk— just the way he likes it.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">SpaceX has built some magnificent rockets, and their dynamism is a welcome change from the souls-trapped-in-powerpoint vibe at NASA. If their founder were anyone else, SpaceX’s incredible track record of achievement would force us to take their Mars plan<a id="fnlink65"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn65"><sup>[65]</sup></a> seriously. But their founder is who he is, and what he has publicly shared is not so much a blueprint as an inspirational poster.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Musk’s vision for the company hinges on a reusable rocket called Starship, which will be able to do everything—refuel in space, re-enter either the Martian or Earth atmosphere, land on the Moon, make an amazing cup of coffee. Economies of scale will make this rocket so cheap that it will soon cost less to launch things into space than to keep them on Earth. At that point, moving to Mars will just be a matter of buying a second-hand Starship and filling it with Monster energy drinks and oxygen.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The difficult and unglamorous problems of a Mars mission—how do you wash your socks? What is there to eat?— get no love from Elon. Once you get beyond “rocket factory go brrrrr,” there is no plan, just a familiar fog of Musky woo. The Mars rockets will refuel from autonomous robot factories powered by sunlight. Their crews will be shielded from radiation by some form of electromagnetic handwaving. Life support, the hardest practical problem in space travel, “is actually quite easy”. And of course Musk dismisses the problem of microbial contamination (which I can’t emphasize enough is governed by international treaty) as both inevitable and no big deal.</p> | |||
| <p class="p10"></p> | |||
| <p>But SpaceX is ultimately in the business of building rockets, not zoo enclosures. And as any Tesla owner can attest, slowly working the bugs out of a life-critical technology is not what keeps the world’s most distractible CEO entertained. In the end there are just two organizations (Roscosmos and NASA) that have deep enough expertise in life support to make it work on Mars-length missions. SpaceX will either have to find a way to work with them, or hire away<a id="fnlink66"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn66"><sup>[66]</sup></a> their experts.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">If you have faith in Musk, there’s nothing I can say to shake it. But if you notice a pattern in his past promises—the hypertunnel that is just a regular tunnel, the door panels that fall off the self-driving car, the robot that’s only a guy in a suit—then maybe you’ll be persuaded that firing difficult problems into space does not make them easier, and that the challenges I’ll lay out here will apply no matter whose name is on the rocket.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Wherever you stand on the matter, whether you’re a Musk fanboy, an unaligned Mars obsessive, or just biplanetary/curious, I invite you to come imagine with me what it would take, and what it would really mean, for people to go put their footprints in the Martian sand.</p> | |||
| <p><i>Next week: The Shape of a Mars Mission</i><br> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <h2>Footnotes</h2> | |||
| <hr> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn1"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink1">[1]</a> I’ll justify this figure in detail later on. For now, consider that each SLS launch costs $4.2B, and that developing just the Orion space capsule has cost $20B. The ISS, which is functionally close to a Mars transfer vehicle, has so far cost $250 billion.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn2"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink2">[2]</a> This is the date you get when you add the minimum time required for research, design, and testing to the earliest date we're likely to have a working lunar base (which is needed to start the research bit). I'll talk about it in detail later.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn3"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink3">[3]</a> John Young commanded the first Space Shuttle flight; the context of the original quote was his assessment of a particularly exciting Shuttle abort mode called ‘Return To Landing Site’.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn4"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink4">[4]</a> For orbital mechanics reasons, Mars launch windows are 26 months apart. We'll talk about this in Section 1.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn5"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink5">[5]</a> For example, early space station designs circa 1969 assumed a crew of 50-100 men working in geosynchronous orbit. Many of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_Astronaut_Group_7">early Space Shuttle astronauts</a> were refugees from an Air Force program called the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Orbiting_Laboratory">Manned Orbiting Laboratory</a>, a kind of inhabitable spy satellite that the Air Force came very close to launching in the early 1970's. For a representative Skylab-era view, see Weitz, <em class="paper_title">The Role of Man in Conducting Earth Resources Observations From Space</em>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2514/6.1974-250">doi.org/10.2514/6.1974-250</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn6"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink6">[6]</a> For example, Mariner 4 (1965) photos were 240,000 bits in size; the orbiter sent them back at 8.5 bits per second. The HiRISE camera on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (2005), source of most of the photographs in this essay, takes 28 Gibit photos that are sent to Earth at up to 4 Mbps.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn7"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink7">[7]</a> I know, no robot can reflect on the nature of the Sublime while looking at sunbeams dancing on the limb of Deimos or whatever. But when it comes to tasks like “look under this rock on Mars” or “fly through this plume and sample it”, robots are awesome.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn8"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink8">[8]</a> For example, compare the $93 billion spent on Artemis through 2025 with the $435 million program cost of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIPER_(rover)">VIPER lunar rover</a>, or the $264 billion estimated cost of a Mars landing in “<a href="https://www.ida.org/-/media/feature/publications/e/ev/evaluation-of-a-human-mission-to-mars-by-2033/d-10510.ashx">Evaluation of a Human Mission to Mars by 2033</a> ” compared to $3.5 billion for the Mars Science Laboratory and Curiosity rover. (Figures in 2022 dollars)</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn9"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink9">[9]</a> Apollo 17 took off from the Moon on December 14, 1972. This was the last time human beings ventured beyond low earth orbit.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn10"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink10">[10]</a> NASA gave the total cost of ISS as $150B in 2010; adjusting this figure for inflation and adding 12 years of operating costs (at about $3 billion/year) adds up to almost exactly a quarter trillion dollars.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn11"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink11">[11]</a> Some of the notable discoveries made by spacecraft after 2000:</p> | |||
| <ul> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler_space_telescope">Kepler</a> finds over 2,600 exoplanets</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curiosity_(rover)">Curiosity</a> discovers that Mars was habitable</li> | |||
| <li>Hubble telescope discovers galaxies at high redshift (z > 8)</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassini_Huygens">Cassini</a> observes water jets and organic molecules on Enceladus</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassini_Huygens">Huygens</a> lands on Titan</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Express">Mars Express</a> discovers subsurface lakes on Mars</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WMAP">WMAP</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck_(spacecraft)">Planck</a> measure the cosmic background radiation to high precision.</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Horizons">New Horizons</a> flies by Pluto</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawn_(spacecraft)">Dawn</a> finds water on Vesta</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosetta_(spacecraft)">Rosetta</a> gives us our first close look at a comet</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_(spacecraft)">Gaia</a> maps the Milky Way</li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p class="p21">Compare this to <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/news/iss-20-years-20-breakthroughs/">NASA’s official list of ISS breakthroughs</a>, which include “monitoring our planet from a unique perspective”, “student access to an orbiting laboratory”, and “responding to natural disasters”.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s16"><a id="fn12"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink12">[12]</a> </span>The first segment of the ISS launched in 1998; I’m counting from the arrival of the first permanent crew in November 2000.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn13"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink13">[13]</a> This result has been very controversial, since the surrounding rock should be far too cold even for supercooled brine to exist as a liquid. The counterargument is that the bright radar reflections must be geological features, not water. However, recent evidence finds independent support for the subglacial lake theory. </p> | |||
| <p>This is one of those unhappy situations where you can’t just rely on Wikipedia, but have to go read the papers, like an animal. See: </p> | |||
| <p>(i) Lauro, S.E., Pettinelli, E., Caprarelli, G. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Multiple subglacial water bodies below the south pole of Mars unveiled by new MARSIS data</em>. <i>Nat Astron</i> <b>5</b>, 63–70 (2021). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-020-1200-6">doi.org/10.1038/s41550-020-1200-6</a></p> | |||
| <p>(ii) Lauro, S.E., Pettinelli, E., Caprarelli, G. )<i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Using MARSIS signal attenuation to assess the presence of South Polar Layered Deposit subglacial brines</em>. <i>Nat Commun</i> <b>13</b>, 5686 (2022). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33389-4">doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33389-4</a></p> | |||
| <p>(iii) Arnold, N.S., Butcher, F.E.G., Conway, S.J. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Surface topographic impact of subglacial water beneath the south polar ice cap of Mars</em>. <i>Nat Astron</i> <b>6</b>, 1256–1262 (2022). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-022-01782-0">doi.org/10.1038/s41550-022-01782-0</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p26"><span class="s6"><a id="fn14"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink14">[14]</a></span> For a discussion of this and a possible heating mechanism, see Sori, M. M., & Bramson, A. M. (2019). <em class="paper_title">Water on Mars, with a grain of salt: Local heat anomalies are required for basal melting of ice at the south pole today</em>. <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>, 46, 1222– 1231. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080985">doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080985</a></p> | |||
| <p><span class="s19"><a id="fn15"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink15">[15]</a></span> Broquet, A., Andrews-Hanna, J.C. <em class="paper_title">Geophysical evidence for an active mantle plume underneath Elysium Planitia on Mars</em>. <i>Nat Astron</i> (2022). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-022-01836-3">doi.org/10.1038/s41550-022-01836-3</a></p> | |||
| <p><a id="fn16"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink16"><span class="s20">[16]</span></a> Baucon, Andrea, Carlos Neto De Carvalho, Fabrizio Felletti, and Roberto Cabella. 2020. <em class="paper_title">"Ichnofossils, Cracks or Crystals? A Test for Biogenicity of Stick-Like Structures from Vera Rubin Ridge, Mars"</em> <i>Geosciences</i> 10, no. 2: 39. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10020039">doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10020039</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><span class="s6"><a id="fn17"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink17">[17]</a></span> E.B. Rampe, D.F. Blake, et al. <em class="paper_title">Mineralogy and geochemistry of sedimentary rocks and eolian sediments in Gale crater, Mars: A review after six Earth years of exploration with Curiosity</em>, Geochemistry, Volume 80, Issue 2, 2020. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemer.2020.125605">doi.org/10.1016/j.chemer.2020.125605</a>.</p> | |||
| <p class="p26"><a id="fn18"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink18"><span class="s21">[18]</span></a> <span class="s17">As who among us has not! See: Moores, J. E., King, P. L., Smith, C. L., Martinez, G. M., Newman, C. E., Guzewich, S. D., et al. (2019). <em class="paper_title">The methane diurnal variation and microseepage flux at Gale crater, Mars as constrained by the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter and Curiosity observations</em>. <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>, 46, 9430– 9438. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083800">doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083800</a></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><span class="s22"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083800"></a><a id="fn19"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink19">[19]</a></span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083800"> </a>Chun, Jongsik, Rainey, Fred A., <em class="paper_title">Integrating genomics into the taxonomy and systematics of the Bacteria and Archaea</em>. International Journal of Systematic and Evolutionary Microbiology, VO 64. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1099/ijs.0.054171-0">doi.org/10.1099/ijs.0.054171-0</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p27"><a id="fn20"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink20"><span class="s21">[20]</span></a> <span class="s23">Kennedy, A.C., Smith, K.L. <em class="paper_title">Soil microbial diversity and the sustainability of agricultural soils</em>. <i>Plant Soil</i> <b>170</b>, 75–86 (1995). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02183056">doi.org/10.1007/BF02183056</a> gives a figure of 87% undiscovered, citing Hawksworth 1991</span></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn21"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink21">[21]</a> Estimates of total microbial biodiversity depend on a raft of modeling assumptions, and there is an ongoing debate about whose model is more realistic. Note that the one trillion figure is not an upper bound. See Lennon and Locey, <em class="paper_title">Scaling Laws Predict Global Microbial Diversity</em> (2016) <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1521291113">doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1521291113</a> and <em class="paper_title">More support for Earth’s Massive Microbiome</em> (2020) <span class="s24"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13062-020-00261-8">doi.org/10.1186/s13062-020-00261-8</a> for a discussion.</span></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s24"><a id="fn22"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink22">[22]</a></span> Discovering a phylum is a big deal; imagine suddenly noticing the existence of vertebrates, or flowering plants. The microbial revolution in the early 21st century found something like 30 new phyla; scientists expect to find 1,300 more. (source: <span class="s6">Yarza, P., Yilmaz, P., Pruesse, E. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Uniting the classification of cultured and uncultured bacteria and archaea using 16S rRNA gene sequences</em>. <i>Nat Rev Microbiol</i> <b>12</b>, 635–645 (2014). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro3330">doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro3330</a></span>)</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s6"><a id="fn23"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink23">[23]</a></span> Specifically, a type of archaea called DPANN and the “Candidate Phyla Radiation” in bacteria. DPANN organisms were hard to discover since they are almost exclusively symbiotic; their past may shed light on the evolution of eukaryotes. See Cindy J. Castelle, Jillian F. Banfield, <em class="paper_title">Major New Microbial Groups Expand Diversity and Alter our Understanding of the Tree of Life</em>, Cell, Volume 172, Issue 6, 2018, Pages 1181-1197, ISSN 0092-8674. <a hre="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2018.02.016">doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2018.02.016</a>.</p> | |||
| <p class="p23"><span class="s17"><a id="fn24"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink24">[24]</a> Morono, Y., Ito, M., Hoshino, T. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Aerobic microbial life persists in oxic marine sediment as old as 101.5 million years</em>. <i>Nat Commun</i> <b>11</b>, 3626 (2020). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17330-1">doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17330-1</a></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p28"><span class="s20"><a id="fn25"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink25">[25]</a></span> Bengtson, S., Ivarsson, M., Astolfo, A., Belivanova, V., Broman, C., Marone, F. and Stampanoni, M. (2014), <em class="paper_title">Deep-biosphere consortium of fungi and prokaryotes in Eocene subseafloor basalts</em>. Geobiology, 12: 489-496. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gbi.12100">doi.org/10.1111/gbi.12100</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s22"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gbi.12100"></a><a id="fn26"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink26">[26]</a></span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gbi.12100"></a> Like everything to do with the deep biosphere, estimates on biomass differ by a couple of orders of magnitude.</p> | |||
| <p class="p23"><span class="s17"><a id="fn27"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink27">[27]</a> Yarza, P., Yilmaz, P., Pruesse, E. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Uniting the classification of cultured and uncultured bacteria and archaea using 16S rRNA gene sequences</em>. <i>Nat Rev Microbiol</i> <b>12</b>, 635–645 (2014). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro3330">doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro3330</a></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p29"><span class="s6"><a id="fn28"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink28">[28]</a></span> Tina Šantl Temkiv, Kai Finster, Bjarne Munk Hansen, Niels Woetmann Nielsen, Ulrich Gosewinkel Karlson, <em class="paper_title">The microbial diversity of a storm cloud as assessed by hailstones</em>, <i>FEMS Microbiology Ecology</i>, Volume 81, Issue 3, September 2012, Pages 684–695, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-6941.2012.01402.x">doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-6941.2012.01402.x</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p23"><span class="s26"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-6941.2012.01402.x"></a><a id="fn29"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink29">[29]</a></span> Petit, Pauline C. M., Olivier Pible, Valérie Van Eesbeeck, Claude Alban, Gérard Steinmetz, Mohamed Mysara, Pieter Monsieurs, Jean Armengaud, and Corinne Rivasseau. 2020. "<em class="paper_title">Direct Meta-Analyses Reveal Unexpected Microbial Life in the Highly Radioactive Water of an Operating Nuclear Reactor Core</em>" <i>Microorganisms</i> 8, no. 12: 1857. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8121857">doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8121857</a></p> | |||
| <p><a id="fn30"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink30"><span class="s20">[30]</span></a> DasSarma, Priya, André Antunes, Marta Filipa Simões, and Shiladitya DasSarma. 2020. "<em class="paper_title">Earth's Stratosphere and Microbial Life</em>" <i>Current Issues in Molecular Biology</i> 38, no. 1: 197-244. <a href="https://doi.org/10.21775/cimb.038.197">doi.org/10.21775/cimb.038.197</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p30"><span class="s6"><a id="fn31"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink31">[31]</a></span> Daisuke Fujiwara, Yuko Kawaguchi, Iori Kinoshita, Jun Yatabe, Issay Narumi, Hirofumi Hashimoto, Shin-ichi Yokobori, and Akihiko Yamagishi. | |||
| <em class="paper_title">Mutation Analysis of the rpoB Gene in the Radiation-Resistant Bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans R1 Exposed to Space during the Tanpopo Experiment at the International Space Station</em>. Astrobiology. Dec 2021.1494-1504.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2020.2424">doi.org/10.1089/ast.2020.2424</a></p> | |||
| <p><span class="s29"><a id="fn32"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink32">[32]</a></span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2020.2424"> </a>Steinle, L., Knittel, K., Felber, N. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Life on the edge: active microbial communities in the Kryos MgCl<sub>2</sub>-brine basin at very low water activity</em>. <i>ISME J</i> <b>12</b>, 1414–1426 (2018). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41396-018-0107-z">doi.org/10.1038/s41396-018-0107-z</a></p> | |||
| <p><a id="fn33"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink33"><span class="s20">[33]</span></a> Vreeland, R., Rosenzweig, W. & Powers, D. <em class="paper_title">Isolation of a 250 million-year-old halotolerant bacterium from a primary salt crystal</em>. <i>Nature</i> <b>407</b>, 897–900 (2000). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/35038060">doi.org/10.1038/35038060</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p32"><span class="s20"><a id="fn34"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink34">[34]</a></span> <span class="s30">For viable microbes found in 8 milion year old ice, see “<em class="paper_title">Fossil genes and microbes in the oldest ice on Earth</em></span> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702196104">doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702196104</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p34"><span class="s32"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702196104"></a><a id="fn35"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink35"><span class="s33">[35]</span></a><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702196104"><span class="s33"> </span></a>Fang J, Kato C, Runko GM, Nogi Y, Hori T, Li J, Morono Y and Inagaki F (2017) <em class="paper_title">Predominance of Viable Spore-Forming Piezophilic Bacteria in High-Pressure Enrichment Cultures from ~1.5 to 2.4 km-Deep Coal-Bearing Sediments below the Ocean Floor</em>. <i>Front. Microbiol.</i> 8:137. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2017.00137">doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2017.00137</a></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p28"><span class="s34"><a id="fn36"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink36">[36]</a></span> See discussion in: Nicholson, W.L. (2020). <em class="paper_title">Spore-Forming Bacteria as Model Organisms for Studies in Astrobiology. In Extremophiles as Astrobiological Models</em> (eds J. Seckbach and H. Stan-Lotter). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119593096.ch13">doi.org/10.1002/9781119593096.ch13</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s22"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119593096.ch13"></a><a id="fn37"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink37">[37]</a></span> Full video is at <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?522488-1/nasa-holds-briefing-moon-mars-program">https://www.c-span.org/video/?522488-1/nasa-holds-briefing-moon-mars-program</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn38"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink38">[38]</a> Obama originally directed NASA to land by 2033; Nelson said that the earliest a Mars landing can happen now is in the late 2030’s or early 2040’s.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn39"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink39">[39]</a> Not a typo; the total budget for ocean exploration is about half of what NASA plans to spend next year ($48.3 M) on architecture studies for Mars.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn40"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink40">[40]</a> Here are the reasons a “Why Mars?” conference came up with in 1992:</p> | |||
| <ol> | |||
| <li><b>Human Evolution</b>- Mars is the next logical step in the expansion of the human race into the stars.</li> | |||
| <li><b>Comparative Planetology</b>- by understanding Mars and its evolution as a planet, a better understanding of Earth will be achieved.</li> | |||
| <li><b>International Cooperation</b>- an international Mars exploration effort has the potential to bring about a sense of global unity as never seen before.</li> | |||
| <li><b>Technological Advancement</b>- the development of new and improved technologies for the Mars mission will enhance the lives of those on Earth while encouraging high-tech </li><li><b>Inspiration</b>- the human Mars exploration mission will test our technological abilities to their maximum. The ingenuity of the mobilized populace will be tested and our accomplishments will serve to inspire future generations. A common focus will unite people from around the world as they expand the envelope of achievability.</li> | |||
| <li><b>Investment</b>- the cost of a crewed Mars exploration mission is reasonable when compared with the costs of other current societal expenditures.</li> | |||
| </ol> | |||
| <p class="p11">Note that only the first two of these reasons have any connection to Mars, and even back in 1992, ‘Comparative Planetology’ was best done by space probe. The others are all riffs on “doing difficult things together builds character”, while (6) is just kind of plaintive. Fourth graders writing to Santa make a stronger case for an X-Box than NASA has been able to put together for a Mars landing.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s15"><a id="fn41"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink41">[41]</a> </span>In 2022, NASA spent $6.79B on Exploration (Moon-to-Mars stuff) and $4.04B on Space Operations (running the ISS). I lump the two together since ISS research is almost entirely in support of life support for the Moon-to-Mars mission. Source: https://www.planetary.org/space-policy/nasas-fy-2022-budget</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn42"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink42">[42]</a> The National Science Foundation budget was <a href="https://www.aip.org/fyi/2022/nsf-budget-fy22-outcomes-and-fy23-request">$8.8 billion</a> in 2022. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn43"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink43">[43]</a> More precisely, outside Earth’s magnetosphere, which blocks a large fraction of the radiation that we need to study.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn44"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink44">[44]</a> The key question is whether Martian gravity (0.38g) is enough to stop the kinds of degenerative processes we see in freefall. We’ll talk about this in detail in the section on deconditioning.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn45"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink45">[45]</a> The best guess right now is that a 40 year old woman would face between a 3% and 21% risk of dying from cumulative radiation exposure on a 940 day Mars mission (at 95% confidence). The large uncertainty comes from lack of data on the effects of heavy ion radiation. See Francis A. Cucinotta, Eliedonna Cacao, Myung-Hee Y. Kim, Premkumar B. Saganti, <em class="paper_title">Cancer and circulatory disease risks for a human mission to Mars: Private mission considerations</em>, Acta Astronautica, Volume 166, 2020. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2018.08.022">doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2018.08.022</a>.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn46"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink46">[46]</a> I’ll talk about why it’s impractical to build a rotating spacecraft for this purpose in the section on artificial gravity.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn47"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink47">[47]</a> Trump actually <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/01/trump-offered-nasa-unlimited-funding-to-go-to-mars-by-2020.html">made this offer to NASA</a>, who sensibly refused. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn48"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink48">[48]</a> There’s no a priori reason a Mars mission has to have closed-loop life support, but NASA treats it as a requirement. As a practical matter, you do have to at least recycle water. I’ll discuss open/closed loop tradeoffs in detail in the section on life support.</p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><span class="s15"><a id="fn49"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink49">[49]</a> The current mass of ECLSS components on the ISS is 1,776 kg (source: ICES-2021-212, An Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) for Deep Space and Commercial Habitats), with an estimated cost of development of $200 million, giving $110,000 per kilogram. At this writing, the price of gold was $58,000 per kilogram.</span></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn50"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink50">[50]</a> I’ll talk about the four basic mission types later. Here I’m assuming a long-stay surface mission, but the argument holds for any of them.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn51"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink51">[51]</a> One way to make the problem not matter is to contaminate Mars early and often, which makes Musk’s plan to land cargo on the surface in bulk as soon as possible particularly cynical.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn52"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink52">[52]</a> No mission has searched for life on Mars since the original Viking landers (which I’m calling Step 0).</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn53"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink53">[53]</a> The Viking landers were the cleanest objects ever sent to Mars; subsequent landers and rovers have received more of a quick wipedown. I’ll talk about the complex standards that govern this in the section on contamination. For a good rant on the qualitative difference between robots and human crews, see Alberto G. Fairén, Victor Parro, Dirk Schulze-Makuch, and Lyle Whyte. “<em class="paper_title">Searching for Life on Mars before it is too late</em>” Astrobiology. Oct 2017. 962-970. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2017.1703">doi.org/10.1089/ast.2017.1703</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s13"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2017.1703"></a><a id="fn54"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink54">[54]</a></span> I’ll talk about why microbial communities are vastly more adaptive than singletons in the section on microbes.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn55"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink55">[55]</a> The requirement to avoid contamination is a clause in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty">1967 Outer Space Treaty</a>. The detailed guidelines for what this means are formulated by an international body called COSPAR. I'll go over these rules in gripping detail in the section on contamination.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn56"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink56">[56]</a> For a taste of how restrictive an explorer's life would be, see Bobskill, Marianne, and Mark L. Lupisella. "<em class="paper_title">Human Mars Mission Surface Science Operations</em>." In <i>SpaceOps 2014 Conference</i>, p. 1620. 2014. https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2014-1620</p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><a id="fn57"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink57">[57]</a> See <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-22-003.pdf">NASA’s Management of the Artemis Missions</a>, Office of Inspector General (IG-22-003)</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn58"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink58">[58]</a> As a rough rule of thumb, a probe to explore a planetary system costs $5 billion, while a smaller mission costs $1 billion. This does not factor in economies of scale from building and launching a number of probes at once, since we’ve never had the money to do that.</p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><span class="s15"><a id="fn59"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink59">[59]</a> The moons with liquid water are Ganymede, Europa, Callisto and Enceladus, with a recent surprise fifth contender, Mimas, the little moon that looks like a Death Star.</span></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn60"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink60">[60]</a> Voyager 2 flew by Uranus in 1986 and Neptune in 1988, and that’s the last we saw of them.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn61"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink61">[61]</a> NASA plans to de-orbit the ISS in 2031, but Roscosmos <a href="https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/space-missions/international-space-station-retirement/">says they’ll bail</a> in 2024. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn62"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink62">[62]</a> I base this figure on the 2023 NASA budget request, which earmarks $7.4 billion for Moon-to-Mars stuff and $4.2 billion for the ISS.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn63"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink63">[63]</a> For context, consider the cost of missions like Europa Clipper ($5 billion), the Mars Science Laboratory / Curiosity Mars rover ($3.2 billion), or the Roman Space Telescope ($3.2 billion). There is potential for substantial savings by binning similar missions, sharing hardware, and not being forced to launch on NASA’s overpriced rockets.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn64"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink64">[64]</a> No one seems to want to go to Venus, but conditions higher up in the atmosphere are surprisingly mild (0.53 bar, 27C at ~55km). If not for the sulfuric acid, astronauts could even go relax outside their blimp wearing just shorts and an oxygen mask. For a cool blimp mission to Venus, see: <a href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329">https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn65"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink65">[65]</a> I’m assuming the adults who run SpaceX have a more realistic plan for Mars that they kept hidden away from Musk, in a room he doesn’t know exists. Here I’m only talking about Musk’s version.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn66"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink66">[66]</a> I would pay large sums of American money to be a fly on the wall at the meeting where someone tries to pitch senior career civil servants on working for Elon Musk.</p> | |||
| </article> | |||
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| title: Why Not Mars (Idle Words) | |||
| url: https://idlewords.com/2023/1/why_not_mars.htm | |||
| hash_url: 9dee199dbf71b1176eaac521e828693b | |||
| archive_date: 2024-05-21 | |||
| og_image: https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/mars_sarlacc.jpg | |||
| description: It's slow, expensive, the engineering is mostly port-a-potty chemistry, and the best-case outcome is that thirty years from now weâll get to watch someone remotely operate a soil scoop from Mars instead of Pasadena | |||
| favicon: | |||
| language: en_US | |||
| <p class="p4"><i>For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.</i></p> | |||
| <p class="p5"><span class="s2">— <a href="https://www.refsmmat.com/files/reflections.pdf"><span class="s3">Richard Feynman</span></a></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/mars_sarlacc.jpg" alt="Sunken pit on Mars with 30 meter wide hole showing cavern beneath"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Entrance to underground cavern on Pavonis Mons. HiRISE, 2011</p> | |||
| <p>The goal of this essay is to persuade you that we shouldn’t send human beings to Mars, at least not anytime soon. Landing on Mars with existing technology would be a destructive, wasteful stunt whose only legacy would be to ruin the greatest natural history experiment in the Solar System. It would no more open a new era of spaceflight than a Phoenician sailor crossing the Atlantic in 500 B.C. would have opened up the New World. And it wouldn’t even be that much fun.</p> | |||
| <p>The buildup to Mars would not look like Apollo, but a long series of ISS-like flights to nowhere. If your main complaint about the International Space Station is that it’s too exciting and has a distracting view of Earth out the window, then you’ll love watching ISS Jr. drift around doing bone studies in deep space. But if you think rockets, adventure, exploration, and discovery are more fun than counting tumors in mice, then the slow and timorous Mars program will only break your heart.</p> | |||
| <p>Sticking a flag in the Martian dust would cost something north of half a trillion dollars <a id="fnlink1"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn1"><sup>[1]</sup></a>, with no realistic prospect of landing before 2050 <a id="fnlink2"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn2"><sup>[2]</sup></a>. To borrow a quote from John Young, keeping such a program funded through fifteen consecutive Congresses would require a series “of continuous miracles, interspersed with acts of God”. <a id="fnlink3"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn3"><sup>[3]</sup></a> Like the Space Shuttle and Space Station before it, the Mars program would exist in a state of permanent redesign by budget committee until any logic or sense in the original proposal had been wrung out of it.</p> | |||
| <p>When the great moment finally came, and the astronauts had taken their first Martian selfie, strict mission rules meant to prevent contamination and minimize risk would leave the crew dependent on the same robots they’d been sent at enormous cost to replace. Only the microbes that lived in the spacecraft, uninformed of the mission rules, would be free to go wander outside. They would become the real explorers of Mars, and if their luck held, its first colonists.</p> | |||
| <p>How long such a program could last is anyone’s guess. But if landing on the Moon taught us anything, it’s that taxpayer enthusiasm for rock collecting has hard limits. At ~$100B per mission, and with launch windows to Mars one election cycle apart<a id="fnlink4"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn4"> <sup>[4]</sup></a>, NASA would be playing a form of programmatic Russian roulette. It’s hard to imagine landings going past the single digits before cost or an accident shut the program down. And once the rockets had retired to their museums, humanity would have nothing to show for its Mars adventure except some rocks and a bunch of unspeakably angry astrobiologists. It would in every way be the opposite of exploration.</p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/blue_dunes.jpg" alt="Blue dunes on Mars"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Polar sand dunes, HiRISE, 2009</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">It wasn’t always like this. There was a time when going to Mars made sense, back when astronauts were a cheap and lightweight alternative to costly machinery, and the main concern about finding life on Mars was whether all the trophy pelts could fit in the spacecraft. No one had been in space long enough to discover the degenerative effects of freefall, and it was widely accepted that not just exploration missions, but complicated instruments like space telescopes and weather satellites, were going to need a permanent crew <a id="fnlink5"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn5"><sup>[5]</sup></a>.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">But fifty years of progress in miniaturization and software changed the balance between robots and humans in space. Between 1960 and 2020, space probes improved by something like six orders of magnitude<a id="fnlink6"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn6"><sup>[6]</sup></a>, while the technologies of long-duration spaceflight did not. Boiling the water out of urine still looks the same in 2023 as it did in 1960, or for that matter 1060. Today’s automated spacecraft are not only strictly more capable<a id="fnlink7"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn7"><sup>[7]</sup></a> than human astronauts, but cost about a hundred times less<a class="fnote" id="fnlink8"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn8"> <sup>[8]</sup></a> to send (though it’s hard to be exact, since astronauts have not gone anywhere since 1972<a id="fnlink9"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn9"><sup>[9]</sup></a>). </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The imbalance between human and robot is so overwhelming that, despite the presence of a $250 billion<a id="fnlink10"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn10"><sup>[10]</sup></a> International Space Station National Laboratory, every major discovery made in space this century has come from robotic spacecraft <a id="fnlink11"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn11"><sup>[11]</sup></a>. In 2023, we simply take it for granted that if a rocket goes up carrying passengers, it’s not going to get any work done.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">As for that space station, the jewel of human spaceflight, it exists in a state of nearly perfect teological closure, its only purpose being to teach its creators how to build future spacecraft like it. The ISS crew spend most of their time fixing the machinery that keeps them alive, and when they have a free moment for science, they tend to study the effect of space on themselves. At 22 years old<a id="fnlink12"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn12"> <sup>[12]</sup></a>, the ISS is still as dependent on fresh meals and clean laundry sent from home as the most feckless grad student. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">And yet this orbiting end-in-itself is also the closest we’ve come to building an interplanetary spacecraft. The idea of sending something like it on a three year journey to Mars does not get engineers’ hearts racing, at least not in the good way.</p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/mars_polar_spring.jpg" alt="Spring in the polar areas of Mars"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Mars in the springtime. The dots and dark lines are conjectured to be flow phenomena connected with sublimating dry ice. HiRISE, 2008</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Mars is also not the planet we took it for. The first photos Mariner 4 sent back in 1965 were shocking; instead of bucolic canals they showed a waterless, cratered wasteland not much different from the Moon. Ten years later, the Viking landers confirmed that Mars was a frozen, desiccated world bathed in sterilizing radiation, where any Earth creature that arrived unprotected would be dead before it hit the ground. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">But as orbiters started arriving in the 2000’s, Mars got a glow-up. The surface might be dry, but in most places there was water ice just underneath. Dynamic surface features hinted that water (or at least brine) was flowing to the surface from deep underground. In 2020, radar surveys found evidence of at least two subglacial lakes<a id="fnlink13"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn13"><sup>[13]</sup></a> under the south polar cap, strongly implying a reservoir of geothermal heat<a id="fnlink14"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn14"><sup>[14]</sup></a>. And earlier this month, an article in Nature announced the discovery of an active mantle plume<a id="fnlink15"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn15"><span class="s6"><sup>[15]</sup></span></a> below Elysium Planitia, catapulting Mars onto the VIP list of geologically active worlds.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The news from the ground also got better. Arriving at Gale Crater in 2012, the Curiosity rover found itself looking at an ordinary lake bed, complete with organic sediment and odd stick-like structures<a id="fnlink16"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn16"><span class="s6"><sup>[16]</sup></span></a> that would be called fossils if we found them on Earth. The crater had been habitable for millions of years<a id="fnlink17"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn17"><sup>[17]</sup></a> in the past, and something in it was still emitting methane at night<a id="fnlink18"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn18"><sup>[18]</sup></a>. Over in its own crater, the <i>Perseverance</i> rover found complex organic molecules of indeterminate origin.</p> | |||
| <p class="p12"><br></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/black_dunes.jpg" alt="Black sand dunes on Mars"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Sand dunes, HiRISE 2016</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">But the really exciting news for Mars was the discovery of unexpected life on Earth. Microbiologists had long suspected that the 12,000 or so<a id="fnlink19"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn19"><sup>[19]</sup></a> known species of microbes were just a fraction of the total, with perhaps another hundred thousand<a id="fnlink20"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn20"><span class="s7"><sup>[20]</sup></span></a> “unculturable” species left to discover. But when new sequencing technology became available at the turn of the century, it showed the number of species might be as high as <i>one</i> <i>trillion</i> <a id="fnlink21"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn21"><sup>[21]</sup></a>. In the genomic gold rush that followed, researchers discovered not just dozens of unsuspected microbial phyla<a id="fnlink22"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn22"><sup>[22]</sup></a>, but two entire new branches of life<a id="fnlink23"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn23"><sup>[23]</sup></a>.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">These new techniques confirmed that earth’s crust is inhabited to a depth of kilometers by a ‘deep biosphere’ of slow-living microbes nourished by geochemical processes and radioactive decay. One group of microbes was discovered still living their best lives<a id="fnlink24"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn24"><span class="s6"><sup>[24]</sup></span></a> 100 million years after being sealed in sedimentary rock. Another was found enjoying a rewarding, long-term relationship with fungal partners deep beneath the seafloor<a id="fnlink25"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn25"><span class="s8"><sup>[25]</sup></span></a>. This underground ecology, which we have barely started to explore, might account for a third<a id="fnlink26"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn26"><sup>[26]</sup></a> of the biomass on earth. </p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/tree_of_life.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Our family tree, circa 2016. Branches with red dots are ones we know nothing about. <br>Another 1,300 microbial phyla may remain undiscovered <a id="fnlink27"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn27"><span class="s6"><sup>[27]</sup></span></a>. You and I are in the bottom right corner.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">At this point, it is hard to <i>not</i> find life on Earth. Microbes have been discovered living in cloud tops<a id="fnlink28"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn28"><span class="s9"><sup>[28]</sup></span></a>, inside nuclear reactor cores<a id="fnlink29"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn29"><span class="s6"><sup>[29]</sup></span></a>, and in aerosols high in the stratosphere<a id="fnlink30"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn30"><span class="s6"><sup>[30]</sup></span></a>. Bacteria not only stay viable for years on the space station hull, but sometimes do better out there<a id="fnlink31"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn31"><span class="s10"><sup>[31]</sup></span></a> than inside the spacecraft. Environments long thought to be sterile, like anoxic brines at the bottom of the Mediterranean sea<a id="fnlink32"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn32"><span class="s6"><sup>[32]</sup></span></a>, are in fact as rich in microbial life as a gas station hot dog. Even microbes trapped for millions of years in salt crystals<a id="fnlink33"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn33"><span class="s6"><sup>[33]</sup></span></a> or Antarctic ice<a id="fnlink34"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn34"><span class="s11"><sup>[34]</sup></span></a> have shown they can wake up and get back to metabolizing<a id="fnlink35"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn35"><span class="s12"><sup>[35]</sup></span></a> without so much as a cup of coffee. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The fact that we failed to notice 99.999% of life on Earth until a few years ago is unsettling and has implications for Mars. The existence of a deep biosphere in particular narrows the habitability gap between our planets to the point where it probably doesn’t exist—there is likely at least one corner of Mars that an Earth organism could call home. It also adds support to the theory that life may have started as an interplanetary infection, a literal Venereal disease that spread across the early solar system by meteorite<a id="fnlink36"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn36"><span class="s8"><sup>[36]</sup></span></a>. If that is the case, and if our distant relatives are still alive in some deep Martian cave, then just about the worst way to go looking for them would be to land in a septic spacecraft. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/polar_dust_devil2.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Dust devil tracks on Mars. What causes the dark parallel lines is still unknown. HiRISE, 2009.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">But the fact that a Mars landing stopped making sense has not had the slightest impact on NASA’s plan to go there in a rocket-propelled terrarium. Though facts may change, and technology may change, one thing will always remain the same—we’re going to Mars, 1950’s style.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">It is difficult to get NASA leadership to explain the purpose of this mission, not because they're obdurate, but because they seem genuinely confused by the question. We’ve already been to the Moon, and Mars comes after the Moon. What part of that is not clear? The idea that a human landing might be in tension with other forms of exploration, or that the might need to make a case for the mission, does not enter into their thinking. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Last summer, at a press briefing on the Moon to Mars program<a id="fnlink37"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn37"><sup>[37]</sup></a>, a journalist asked NASA Administrator Bill Nelson to explain to Americans in plain language why NASA wanted to send astronauts to Mars and to the Moon. His reply is worth quoting in full:</p> | |||
| <blockquote>“This is what I would tell them. First of all, we are explorers and adventurers as a species. That basically is the fulfilment of our destiny. But, in that exploration, we’re going to learn new things and develop new things that is going to improve, just as it’s been under our space program, our lives here on Earth. | |||
| <p>Last week I was in Kansas, I was with a corn farmer, where we are giving him real time information on the moisture content of the soil in this crop and next to it, that crop, so that he knows what to plant. Those instruments obviously for example can pick up disease, pick up disease in forest that then become susceptible to fire. That certainly is going to help our life here on Earth. And those are things that have come out of the space program, things that we can’t even think of. | |||
| </p><p>But there’s more. When we go to Mars in the late 30’s<a id="fnlink38"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn38"><sup>[38]</sup></a>, just think how much more we’re going to understand about our Solar System, and about the Universe, as a result of things like many of our instruments out there, not the least of which is the James Webb Space Telescope. We may have by that time found an asteroid that we don’t have to protect Earth on, as we want to try with DART in another month, but we may find an asteroid that has valuable materials on it, metals, that we can harvest. By 2040, we may have detected life elsewhere in the universe. And think what that’s going to do in our yearning for exploration. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> | |||
| <p>So I can’t answer specifically the question, “what happens after Mars?” I just know we’re going to know a lot more between now and then. And our discoveries and our exploration are going to continue. And the apt analogy was given by [Associate Administrator] Bhavya [Lal]. When Thomas Jefferson sent Lewis and Clark all the way to the Pacific coast, look what happened as a result!</p> | |||
| </span></p></blockquote> | |||
| <p>I include Nelson’s full remarks because this is the most substantive explanation I’ve found from NASA for their Mars landing. <a id="fnlink40"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn40"><sup>[40]</sup></a> Note that none of the programs he references (Global Agricultural Monitoring, DART, Landsat, the Webb Space Telescope, and TESS) have any connection to human spaceflight, let alone Mars. The only parts of this answer that apply to Mars are the bits about destiny, exploration, and Lewis and Clark (who I have to stress were looking for an ocean of liquid water). | |||
| </p><p class="p7">If the head of NOAA Ocean Exploration (budget: $25 million) or the U.S. Antarctic Program ($350 million) held a press conference announcing a plan to fulfill human destiny, they’d be carrying their belongings home in a cardboard box before sundown. But our space agency is held to a lower standard. | |||
| </p><p class="p7">All this would be fine if it was just talk. But NASA spent more on their Moon and Mars programs in 2022<a id="fnlink41"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn41"><sup>[41]</sup></a> than the total budget of the National Science Foundation<a id="fnlink42"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn42"><sup>[42]</sup></a>. And in 2024, they plan to start launching pieces of a new space station, the Gateway, which by the laws of orbital bureaucracy will lock us in to decades of having to invent reasons to go visit the thing.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Somehow we’ve embarked on the biggest project in history even though it has no articulable purpose, offers no benefits, and will cost taxpayers more than a good-sized war. Even the builders of the Great Pyramid at Giza could at least explain what it was <i>for</i>. And yet this project has sailed through an otherwise gridlocked system with the effortlessness of a Pentagon budget. Presidents of both parties now make landing on Mars an official goal of US space policy. Even billionaires who made their fortune automating labor on Earth agree that Mars must be artisanally explored by hand. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The whole thing is getting weird.</p> | |||
| <p class="p12"><br></p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/mars_volunteers.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Volunteers carry out a mock mission at the Mars Desert Research Station in Utah (photo: <span class="s13">Brian van der Brug)</span></p> | |||
| <h2>The Mars Religion</h2> | |||
| <p class="p7">When you hold on to a belief so strongly that neither facts nor reason can change it, what you are doing is no longer science, but religion. So I’ve come to believe the best way to look at our Mars program is as a faith-based initiative. There is a small cohort of people who really <i>believe</i> in going to Mars, the way some people believe in ghosts or cryptocurrency, and this group has an outsize effect on our space program.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">At NASA, the faith takes the form of a cargo cult. The agency has persuaded itself that re-enacting the Moon landings with enough fidelity will reward them with a trip to Mars, bringing back the limitless budgets, uncomplicated patriotism, and rapt public attention of the early sixties. They send up their rockets with the same touching faith that keeps Amtrak hauling empty dining cars across the prairie, dreaming of the golden age of rail. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Outside of NASA, the Mars faith shades darker. It is part of a transhumanist worldview that holds mankind must either spread to the stars or die. Elon Musk, the Martian spiritual leader, has talked about the need to “preserve the light of consciousness” by making us a multiplanetary species. As he sees it, Mars is our only way off of a planet crawling with existential risk. And it's not just enough to explore mars; we have make it a backup for all civilization. Failing to stock it with subsistence farming incels would be tantamount to humanity lying down in its open grave.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">That is some heavy stuff to lay on a small, rocky world. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">I think it’s time we brought the Mars talk down to earth, and started approaching a landing there as an aerospace project rather than the fulfillment of God’s plan. But so far, public discourse on Mars has mostly been about whose rocket is bigger and which billionaire can get his up the fastest. | |||
| </p><p>Since we’re already paying for this program, why not look at it in more detail? It's pretty clear what a Mars mission would look like, how long it would take, and where the big technology gaps are. We’ve learned a great deal about Mars itself, and have twenty years of ISS technical reports to work from. So let's have ourselves a good old fashioned nerdfight. | |||
| </p><p>In what follows, I want to lay out the case against Mars in more technical detail than I’ve been able to find elsewhere. Then we can argue about it online, on the merits, like space nerds used to. | |||
| </p><p class="p7">The argument I’ll make has three parts:</p> | |||
| <h2>1. Research</h2> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/nyberg_eye_exam.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Astronaut Karen Nyberg performs an eye exam on the ISS in 2013</p> | |||
| <p>The things that make going to Mars hard are not fun space things, like needing a bigger rocket, but tedious limits of human physiology. Understanding these limits well enough to get to Mars will require years of human experiments beyond low Earth orbit<a id="fnlink43"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn43"><sup>[43]</sup></a>.</p> | |||
| <p>In particular, we need preliminary data on the physiological effects of partial gravity,<a id="fnlink44"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn44"><sup>[44]</sup></a> and a better estimate of the risk from heavy ion radiation<a id="fnlink45"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn45"><sup>[45]</sup></a>. Since core tradeoffs around crew safety depend on the outcome, these experiments have to be done before NASA can finalize a mission design.</p> | |||
| <p>Absent a miracle in appropriations, the only practical place to do this research will be on the Moon<a id="fnlink46"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn46"><sup>[46]</sup></a>. This puts a working lunar base on the critical path to a Mars landing, and means any delay or snag in NASA’s Artemis program automatically pushes back the earliest date for a Mars landing.</p> | |||
| <p>This research gap is what makes it impossible to get to Mars quickly, even with unlimited funding<a id="fnlink47"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn47"><sup>[47]</sup></a>. Unless you’re willing to risk the safety of the crew, there’s no way to avoid watching astronauts sit around on the Moon for a few years with their Geiger counters out.</p> | |||
| <p class="p10"><br></p> | |||
| <h2>2. Engineering</h2> | |||
| <p class="p7"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/isspresso_in_action.jpg" alt="Interior of Skylab"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Italian astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti tests ISSpresso, her country's contribution to the ISS life support system, in 2015</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The chief technical obstacle to a Mars landing is not propulsion, but a lack of reliable closed-loop life support<a id="fnlink48"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn48"><sup>[48]</sup></a>. With our current capability, NASA would struggle to keep a crew alive for six months on the White House lawn, let alone for years in a Martian yurt. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The technology program required to close this gap would be remarkably circular, with no benefits outside the field of applied zero gravity zookeeping. The web of Rube Goldberg devices that recycles floating animal waste on the space station has already cost twice its weight in gold<a id="fnlink49"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn49"><sup>[49]</sup></a> and there is little appetite for it here on Earth, where plants do a better job for free.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">I would compare keeping primates alive in spacecraft to trying to build a jet engine out of raisins. Both are colossal engineering problems, possibly the hardest ever attempted, but it does not follow that they are problems worth solving. In both cases, the difficulty flows from a very specific design constraint, and it’s worth revisiting that constraint one or ten times before starting to perform miracles of engineering.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">What makes life support so vexing is that all the subcomponents interact with each other and with the crew. There’s no such thing as a life support unit test; you have to run the whole system in space under conditions that mimic the target mission. Reliability engineering for life support involves solving mysteries like why gunk formed on a certain washer on Day 732, then praying on the next run that your fix doesn’t break on Day 733. The process repeats until the first crew makes it home alive (figuratively speaking), at which point you declare the technology reliable and chill the champagne.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Unlike the medical research, there’s no way to predict how long these trials might take. A typical exploration profile<a id="fnlink50"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn50"><sup>[50]</sup></a> needs two different kinds of life support (for the spacecraft and the surface) that together have to work for about 1000 days. The spacecraft also has to demonstrate that it can go dormant for the time the crew is on Mars and still work when it wakes up. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Twenty years of tinkering with the much simpler systems on the space station have brought them no closer to reliability. And yet to get a crew to Mars, we’d need to get this stuff working like a Swiss watch. Humanity does not need a billion dollar shit dehydrator that can work for three years in zero gravity, but a Mars mission can’t leave Earth without it.</p> | |||
| <h2>3. Contamination</h2> | |||
| <p class="p6"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/heat_shield.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Debris left by the Perserverance landing, photographed in April 2022 by the Ingenuity helicopter.</p> | |||
| <p> Humans who land on Mars will not be able to avoid introducing a large ecosystem of microbes to the area around the landing site. If any fugitives from the spacecraft make their way to a survivable niche on Mars, we may never be able to tell whether biotic signatures later found on the planet are traces of native life, or were left by escapees from our first Martian outhouse. Like careless investigators who didn’t wear gloves to a crime scene, we would risk permanently destroying the evidence we came to collect.</p> | |||
| <p>“No exploration without contamination” would be a good phrase to stencil in red letters above the airlock (ideally before welding it shut). Contamination risk is a real showstopper for Mars, one of those problems that gets worse the more carefully you look at it. It should put the planet off limits to human explorers until we’re either sure that there is no pathway from the spacecraft to a habitable Martian environment, or are confident for other reasons that the consequences don’t matter<a id="fnlink51"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn51"><sup>[51]</sup></a>. </p> | |||
| <p>Even the astronaut corps recognizes that exploring Mars and keeping it pristine are irreconcilable activities, like trying to drill for oil in a cleanroom. The problem goes beyond practical questions like how to store 17 months of astronaut shit and gets to the crux of the matter: why is bringing a leaky, bacteria-filled terrarium to Mars step one<a id="fnlink52"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn52"><sup>[52]</sup></a> in our search for Martian life? What incredible ability do astronauts have that justifies taking this risk?</p> | |||
| <p>Skeptics point out that Earth microbes have already landed on Mars, both on robotic landers<a id="fnlink53"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn53"><sup>[53]</sup></a> and the occasional meteorite. But as we’ll see, the diverse microbiome that would travel with a human crew poses a qualitatively different threat<a id="fnlink54"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn54"><sup>[54]</sup></a>, and would have a far better chance of getting settled on Mars, than the sad loners clinging to rovers like <i>Curiosity</i>.</p> | |||
| <p>Even if you don’t care about contamination, NASA is required by treaty to care<a id="fnlink55"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn55"><sup>[55]</sup></a>, and that has severe consequences for mission design. It means human landing sites will intentionally be kept far from anything interesting. The phenomena of greatest scientific interest on Mars (gullies, recurrent slope lineae, intermittent methane sources, and underground water) will all be off-limits to astronauts. So will terrain features like caves or lava tubes that could conceivably shelter life. The crew will not live in a Martian pueblo, but something resembling a level 4 biocontainment facility<a id="fnlink56"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn56"><sup>[56]</sup></a>. And even there, they’ll have to do their lab work remotely, the same way it’s done today, raising the question of what exactly the hundreds of billions of dollars we’re spending to get to Mars are buying us.</p> | |||
| <p class="p10"><br></p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/ultimi_scopuri2.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Ice near Ultimi Scopuri. ESA/Mars Express, 2022</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">That’s my case against Mars in a nutshell: it comes front-loaded with expensive research, the engineering is mostly port-a-potty chemistry, and the best-case outcome is that thirty years from now, we’ll get to watch someone remotely operate a soil scoop from Mars instead of Pasadena.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">I understand not wanting to let go of a cherished dream. But I also have a cherished dream, which is to see space exploration happen in my lifetime. And it is hard to overlook that the $93 billion<a id="fnlink57"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn57"><sup>[57]</sup></a> NASA has already spent through 2025 to not land anyone on the Moon would be enough<a id="fnlink58"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn58"><sup>[58]</sup></a> to send probes to every world in the solar system, including moons we know have oceans of liquid water<a id="fnlink59"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn59"><sup>[59]</sup></a> and two entire planetary systems that haven’t been visited since <i>Voyager 2</i> gave them a quick once-over in the 1980’s.<a id="fnlink60"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn60"><sup>[60]</sup></a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7">And let’s not forget Mars! For my part, I would love to know what causes recurrent slope lineae, why there is methane at Gale Crater, and whether anything is swimming in the subsurface lakes discovered in 2018. Orbiters have already found dozens of creepy caves and pits, any one of which would be worth looking into. And the discovery that Mars is geologically active should inspire a search for life deep underground. Exploring these environments remotely won’t be easy, but whatever technology we invent to do it will pay dividends on missions across the solar system. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/spots_dune.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Polar dunes showing carbon dioxide frost and sublimation phenomena, HiRISE 2007</p> | |||
| <h2>ON THIS PLANET WE BELIEVE IN SCIENCE</h2> | |||
| <p class="p7">We’re at a rare moment when the United States is in between white elephant space projects. The ISS is nearing the end of its life<a id="fnlink61"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn61"><sup>[61]</sup></a>, and tensions between NASA and Roscosmos have filled all hearts with hope that we can soon drop the thing into the ocean. For the first time since Nixon, Americans have a chance to choose a bolder future for their space program.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">One path forward would be to build on the technological revolution of the past fifty years and go explore the hell out of space with robots. This future is available to us right now. Simply redirecting the $11.6 billion budget<a id="fnlink62"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn62"><sup>[62]</sup></a> for human space flight would be enough to staff up the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and go from launching one major project per decade to multiple planetary probes and telescopes a year<a id="fnlink63"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn63"><sup>[63]</sup></a>. It would be the start of the greatest era of discovery in history.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">A different path forward would take us to Mars the slow, dangerous, and hard way. It would take decades and cost hundreds of billions of dollars. It requires developing a solipsistic technology that can’t take us anywhere else except Venus<a id="fnlink64"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn64"><sup>[64]</sup></a>. And it is not guaranteed to work. If there’s a reason this plan is better than going exploring, NASA should articulate it to the people who are going to be paying the bill.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">NASA has spent decades learning how to survive in the harsh environment of Congress, and that knowledge is bearing fruit today. The machinery that brought us two pointless multibillion dollar space projects has been spun up again to take us to Mars. Like George Lucas preparing to release another awful prequel, NASA is hoping that cool spaceships and nostalgia will be enough to keep everyone from noticing that their story makes no sense. But you can't lie your way to Mars, no matter how sincerely you believe in what you're doing. | |||
| <br><br> | |||
| </p><h2>The Other Mars Program</h2> | |||
| <p class="p11"><span class="s15"><b><i>“</i></b><i>Mere failure to realize a long-term, aspirational goal is not fraud” <br>—lawyers representing Tesla, November 2022</i></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/mars_img/spacex_fantasy.jpg" alt="Image"></p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Of course, in 2022 there is an alternative vision for Mars exploration centered on the activities of Elon Musk. If NASA is Amtrak in space, then SpaceX is the Fyre Festival with rockets, a glamorous effort led by a hype man who promises that every logistical problem will melt away if we can just get people to the destination.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">What can I say about Musk? He likes rockets and drama, and his approach to every engineering problem is to promise to solve it with cool technology that he’ll have ready in Q2 of next year. This has the effect of turning technical discussions into debates over the character and achievements of Elon Musk— just the way he likes it.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">SpaceX has built some magnificent rockets, and their dynamism is a welcome change from the souls-trapped-in-powerpoint vibe at NASA. If their founder were anyone else, SpaceX’s incredible track record of achievement would force us to take their Mars plan<a id="fnlink65"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn65"><sup>[65]</sup></a> seriously. But their founder is who he is, and what he has publicly shared is not so much a blueprint as an inspirational poster.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Musk’s vision for the company hinges on a reusable rocket called Starship, which will be able to do everything—refuel in space, re-enter either the Martian or Earth atmosphere, land on the Moon, make an amazing cup of coffee. Economies of scale will make this rocket so cheap that it will soon cost less to launch things into space than to keep them on Earth. At that point, moving to Mars will just be a matter of buying a second-hand Starship and filling it with Monster energy drinks and oxygen.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">The difficult and unglamorous problems of a Mars mission—how do you wash your socks? What is there to eat?— get no love from Elon. Once you get beyond “rocket factory go brrrrr,” there is no plan, just a familiar fog of Musky woo. The Mars rockets will refuel from autonomous robot factories powered by sunlight. Their crews will be shielded from radiation by some form of electromagnetic handwaving. Life support, the hardest practical problem in space travel, “is actually quite easy”. And of course Musk dismisses the problem of microbial contamination (which I can’t emphasize enough is governed by international treaty) as both inevitable and no big deal.</p> | |||
| <p class="p10"></p> | |||
| <p>But SpaceX is ultimately in the business of building rockets, not zoo enclosures. And as any Tesla owner can attest, slowly working the bugs out of a life-critical technology is not what keeps the world’s most distractible CEO entertained. In the end there are just two organizations (Roscosmos and NASA) that have deep enough expertise in life support to make it work on Mars-length missions. SpaceX will either have to find a way to work with them, or hire away<a id="fnlink66"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn66"><sup>[66]</sup></a> their experts.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">If you have faith in Musk, there’s nothing I can say to shake it. But if you notice a pattern in his past promises—the hypertunnel that is just a regular tunnel, the door panels that fall off the self-driving car, the robot that’s only a guy in a suit—then maybe you’ll be persuaded that firing difficult problems into space does not make them easier, and that the challenges I’ll lay out here will apply no matter whose name is on the rocket.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7">Wherever you stand on the matter, whether you’re a Musk fanboy, an unaligned Mars obsessive, or just biplanetary/curious, I invite you to come imagine with me what it would take, and what it would really mean, for people to go put their footprints in the Martian sand.</p> | |||
| <p><i>Next week: The Shape of a Mars Mission</i><br> | |||
| </p><h2>Footnotes</h2> | |||
| <hr> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn1"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink1">[1]</a> I’ll justify this figure in detail later on. For now, consider that each SLS launch costs $4.2B, and that developing just the Orion space capsule has cost $20B. The ISS, which is functionally close to a Mars transfer vehicle, has so far cost $250 billion.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn2"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink2">[2]</a> This is the date you get when you add the minimum time required for research, design, and testing to the earliest date we're likely to have a working lunar base (which is needed to start the research bit). I'll talk about it in detail later.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn3"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink3">[3]</a> John Young commanded the first Space Shuttle flight; the context of the original quote was his assessment of a particularly exciting Shuttle abort mode called ‘Return To Landing Site’.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn4"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink4">[4]</a> For orbital mechanics reasons, Mars launch windows are 26 months apart. We'll talk about this in Section 1.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn5"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink5">[5]</a> For example, early space station designs circa 1969 assumed a crew of 50-100 men working in geosynchronous orbit. Many of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_Astronaut_Group_7">early Space Shuttle astronauts</a> were refugees from an Air Force program called the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Orbiting_Laboratory">Manned Orbiting Laboratory</a>, a kind of inhabitable spy satellite that the Air Force came very close to launching in the early 1970's. For a representative Skylab-era view, see Weitz, <em class="paper_title">The Role of Man in Conducting Earth Resources Observations From Space</em>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.2514/6.1974-250">doi.org/10.2514/6.1974-250</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn6"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink6">[6]</a> For example, Mariner 4 (1965) photos were 240,000 bits in size; the orbiter sent them back at 8.5 bits per second. The HiRISE camera on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (2005), source of most of the photographs in this essay, takes 28 Gibit photos that are sent to Earth at up to 4 Mbps.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn7"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink7">[7]</a> I know, no robot can reflect on the nature of the Sublime while looking at sunbeams dancing on the limb of Deimos or whatever. But when it comes to tasks like “look under this rock on Mars” or “fly through this plume and sample it”, robots are awesome.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn8"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink8">[8]</a> For example, compare the $93 billion spent on Artemis through 2025 with the $435 million program cost of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIPER_(rover)">VIPER lunar rover</a>, or the $264 billion estimated cost of a Mars landing in “<a href="https://www.ida.org/-/media/feature/publications/e/ev/evaluation-of-a-human-mission-to-mars-by-2033/d-10510.ashx">Evaluation of a Human Mission to Mars by 2033</a> ” compared to $3.5 billion for the Mars Science Laboratory and Curiosity rover. (Figures in 2022 dollars)</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn9"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink9">[9]</a> Apollo 17 took off from the Moon on December 14, 1972. This was the last time human beings ventured beyond low earth orbit.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn10"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink10">[10]</a> NASA gave the total cost of ISS as $150B in 2010; adjusting this figure for inflation and adding 12 years of operating costs (at about $3 billion/year) adds up to almost exactly a quarter trillion dollars.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn11"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink11">[11]</a> Some of the notable discoveries made by spacecraft after 2000:</p> | |||
| <ul> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler_space_telescope">Kepler</a> finds over 2,600 exoplanets</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curiosity_(rover)">Curiosity</a> discovers that Mars was habitable</li> | |||
| <li>Hubble telescope discovers galaxies at high redshift (z > 8)</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassini_Huygens">Cassini</a> observes water jets and organic molecules on Enceladus</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassini_Huygens">Huygens</a> lands on Titan</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Express">Mars Express</a> discovers subsurface lakes on Mars</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WMAP">WMAP</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck_(spacecraft)">Planck</a> measure the cosmic background radiation to high precision.</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Horizons">New Horizons</a> flies by Pluto</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawn_(spacecraft)">Dawn</a> finds water on Vesta</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosetta_(spacecraft)">Rosetta</a> gives us our first close look at a comet</li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_(spacecraft)">Gaia</a> maps the Milky Way</li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p class="p21">Compare this to <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/news/iss-20-years-20-breakthroughs/">NASA’s official list of ISS breakthroughs</a>, which include “monitoring our planet from a unique perspective”, “student access to an orbiting laboratory”, and “responding to natural disasters”.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s16"><a id="fn12"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink12">[12]</a> </span>The first segment of the ISS launched in 1998; I’m counting from the arrival of the first permanent crew in November 2000.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn13"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink13">[13]</a> This result has been very controversial, since the surrounding rock should be far too cold even for supercooled brine to exist as a liquid. The counterargument is that the bright radar reflections must be geological features, not water. However, recent evidence finds independent support for the subglacial lake theory. </p><p>This is one of those unhappy situations where you can’t just rely on Wikipedia, but have to go read the papers, like an animal. See: </p><p>(i) Lauro, S.E., Pettinelli, E., Caprarelli, G. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Multiple subglacial water bodies below the south pole of Mars unveiled by new MARSIS data</em>. <i>Nat Astron</i> <b>5</b>, 63–70 (2021). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-020-1200-6">doi.org/10.1038/s41550-020-1200-6</a></p> | |||
| <p>(ii) Lauro, S.E., Pettinelli, E., Caprarelli, G. )<i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Using MARSIS signal attenuation to assess the presence of South Polar Layered Deposit subglacial brines</em>. <i>Nat Commun</i> <b>13</b>, 5686 (2022). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33389-4">doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33389-4</a></p> | |||
| <p>(iii) Arnold, N.S., Butcher, F.E.G., Conway, S.J. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Surface topographic impact of subglacial water beneath the south polar ice cap of Mars</em>. <i>Nat Astron</i> <b>6</b>, 1256–1262 (2022). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-022-01782-0">doi.org/10.1038/s41550-022-01782-0</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p26"><span class="s6"><a id="fn14"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink14">[14]</a></span> For a discussion of this and a possible heating mechanism, see Sori, M. M., & Bramson, A. M. (2019). <em class="paper_title">Water on Mars, with a grain of salt: Local heat anomalies are required for basal melting of ice at the south pole today</em>. <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>, 46, 1222– 1231. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080985">doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080985</a></p> | |||
| <p><span class="s19"><a id="fn15"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink15">[15]</a></span> Broquet, A., Andrews-Hanna, J.C. <em class="paper_title">Geophysical evidence for an active mantle plume underneath Elysium Planitia on Mars</em>. <i>Nat Astron</i> (2022). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-022-01836-3">doi.org/10.1038/s41550-022-01836-3</a></p> | |||
| <p><a id="fn16"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink16"><span class="s20">[16]</span></a> Baucon, Andrea, Carlos Neto De Carvalho, Fabrizio Felletti, and Roberto Cabella. 2020. <em class="paper_title">"Ichnofossils, Cracks or Crystals? A Test for Biogenicity of Stick-Like Structures from Vera Rubin Ridge, Mars"</em> <i>Geosciences</i> 10, no. 2: 39. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10020039">doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10020039</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><span class="s6"><a id="fn17"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink17">[17]</a></span> E.B. Rampe, D.F. Blake, et al. <em class="paper_title">Mineralogy and geochemistry of sedimentary rocks and eolian sediments in Gale crater, Mars: A review after six Earth years of exploration with Curiosity</em>, Geochemistry, Volume 80, Issue 2, 2020. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemer.2020.125605">doi.org/10.1016/j.chemer.2020.125605</a>.</p> | |||
| <p class="p26"><a id="fn18"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink18"><span class="s21">[18]</span></a> <span class="s17">As who among us has not! See: Moores, J. E., King, P. L., Smith, C. L., Martinez, G. M., Newman, C. E., Guzewich, S. D., et al. (2019). <em class="paper_title">The methane diurnal variation and microseepage flux at Gale crater, Mars as constrained by the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter and Curiosity observations</em>. <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>, 46, 9430– 9438. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083800">doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083800</a></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><span class="s22"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083800"></a><a id="fn19"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink19">[19]</a></span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083800"> </a>Chun, Jongsik, Rainey, Fred A., <em class="paper_title">Integrating genomics into the taxonomy and systematics of the Bacteria and Archaea</em>. International Journal of Systematic and Evolutionary Microbiology, VO 64. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1099/ijs.0.054171-0">doi.org/10.1099/ijs.0.054171-0</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p27"><a id="fn20"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink20"><span class="s21">[20]</span></a> <span class="s23">Kennedy, A.C., Smith, K.L. <em class="paper_title">Soil microbial diversity and the sustainability of agricultural soils</em>. <i>Plant Soil</i> <b>170</b>, 75–86 (1995). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02183056">doi.org/10.1007/BF02183056</a> gives a figure of 87% undiscovered, citing Hawksworth 1991</span></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn21"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink21">[21]</a> Estimates of total microbial biodiversity depend on a raft of modeling assumptions, and there is an ongoing debate about whose model is more realistic. Note that the one trillion figure is not an upper bound. See Lennon and Locey, <em class="paper_title">Scaling Laws Predict Global Microbial Diversity</em> (2016) <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1521291113">doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1521291113</a> and <em class="paper_title">More support for Earth’s Massive Microbiome</em> (2020) <span class="s24"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13062-020-00261-8">doi.org/10.1186/s13062-020-00261-8</a> for a discussion.</span></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s24"><a id="fn22"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink22">[22]</a></span> Discovering a phylum is a big deal; imagine suddenly noticing the existence of vertebrates, or flowering plants. The microbial revolution in the early 21st century found something like 30 new phyla; scientists expect to find 1,300 more. (source: <span class="s6">Yarza, P., Yilmaz, P., Pruesse, E. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Uniting the classification of cultured and uncultured bacteria and archaea using 16S rRNA gene sequences</em>. <i>Nat Rev Microbiol</i> <b>12</b>, 635–645 (2014). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro3330">doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro3330</a></span>)</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s6"><a id="fn23"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink23">[23]</a></span> Specifically, a type of archaea called DPANN and the “Candidate Phyla Radiation” in bacteria. DPANN organisms were hard to discover since they are almost exclusively symbiotic; their past may shed light on the evolution of eukaryotes. See Cindy J. Castelle, Jillian F. Banfield, <em class="paper_title">Major New Microbial Groups Expand Diversity and Alter our Understanding of the Tree of Life</em>, Cell, Volume 172, Issue 6, 2018, Pages 1181-1197, ISSN 0092-8674. <a hre="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2018.02.016">doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2018.02.016</a>.</p> | |||
| <p class="p23"><span class="s17"><a id="fn24"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink24">[24]</a> Morono, Y., Ito, M., Hoshino, T. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Aerobic microbial life persists in oxic marine sediment as old as 101.5 million years</em>. <i>Nat Commun</i> <b>11</b>, 3626 (2020). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17330-1">doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17330-1</a></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p28"><span class="s20"><a id="fn25"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink25">[25]</a></span> Bengtson, S., Ivarsson, M., Astolfo, A., Belivanova, V., Broman, C., Marone, F. and Stampanoni, M. (2014), <em class="paper_title">Deep-biosphere consortium of fungi and prokaryotes in Eocene subseafloor basalts</em>. Geobiology, 12: 489-496. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gbi.12100">doi.org/10.1111/gbi.12100</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s22"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gbi.12100"></a><a id="fn26"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink26">[26]</a></span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gbi.12100"></a> Like everything to do with the deep biosphere, estimates on biomass differ by a couple of orders of magnitude.</p> | |||
| <p class="p23"><span class="s17"><a id="fn27"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink27">[27]</a> Yarza, P., Yilmaz, P., Pruesse, E. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Uniting the classification of cultured and uncultured bacteria and archaea using 16S rRNA gene sequences</em>. <i>Nat Rev Microbiol</i> <b>12</b>, 635–645 (2014). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro3330">doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro3330</a></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p29"><span class="s6"><a id="fn28"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink28">[28]</a></span> Tina Šantl Temkiv, Kai Finster, Bjarne Munk Hansen, Niels Woetmann Nielsen, Ulrich Gosewinkel Karlson, <em class="paper_title">The microbial diversity of a storm cloud as assessed by hailstones</em>, <i>FEMS Microbiology Ecology</i>, Volume 81, Issue 3, September 2012, Pages 684–695, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-6941.2012.01402.x">doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-6941.2012.01402.x</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p23"><span class="s26"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-6941.2012.01402.x"></a><a id="fn29"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink29">[29]</a></span> Petit, Pauline C. M., Olivier Pible, Valérie Van Eesbeeck, Claude Alban, Gérard Steinmetz, Mohamed Mysara, Pieter Monsieurs, Jean Armengaud, and Corinne Rivasseau. 2020. "<em class="paper_title">Direct Meta-Analyses Reveal Unexpected Microbial Life in the Highly Radioactive Water of an Operating Nuclear Reactor Core</em>" <i>Microorganisms</i> 8, no. 12: 1857. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8121857">doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8121857</a></p> | |||
| <p><a id="fn30"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink30"><span class="s20">[30]</span></a> DasSarma, Priya, André Antunes, Marta Filipa Simões, and Shiladitya DasSarma. 2020. "<em class="paper_title">Earth's Stratosphere and Microbial Life</em>" <i>Current Issues in Molecular Biology</i> 38, no. 1: 197-244. <a href="https://doi.org/10.21775/cimb.038.197">doi.org/10.21775/cimb.038.197</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p30"><span class="s6"><a id="fn31"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink31">[31]</a></span> Daisuke Fujiwara, Yuko Kawaguchi, Iori Kinoshita, Jun Yatabe, Issay Narumi, Hirofumi Hashimoto, Shin-ichi Yokobori, and Akihiko Yamagishi. | |||
| <em class="paper_title">Mutation Analysis of the rpoB Gene in the Radiation-Resistant Bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans R1 Exposed to Space during the Tanpopo Experiment at the International Space Station</em>. Astrobiology. Dec 2021.1494-1504.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2020.2424">doi.org/10.1089/ast.2020.2424</a></p> | |||
| <p><span class="s29"><a id="fn32"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink32">[32]</a></span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2020.2424"> </a>Steinle, L., Knittel, K., Felber, N. <i>et al.</i> <em class="paper_title">Life on the edge: active microbial communities in the Kryos MgCl<sub>2</sub>-brine basin at very low water activity</em>. <i>ISME J</i> <b>12</b>, 1414–1426 (2018). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41396-018-0107-z">doi.org/10.1038/s41396-018-0107-z</a></p> | |||
| <p><a id="fn33"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink33"><span class="s20">[33]</span></a> Vreeland, R., Rosenzweig, W. & Powers, D. <em class="paper_title">Isolation of a 250 million-year-old halotolerant bacterium from a primary salt crystal</em>. <i>Nature</i> <b>407</b>, 897–900 (2000). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/35038060">doi.org/10.1038/35038060</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p32"><span class="s20"><a id="fn34"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink34">[34]</a></span> <span class="s30">For viable microbes found in 8 milion year old ice, see “<em class="paper_title">Fossil genes and microbes in the oldest ice on Earth</em></span> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702196104">doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702196104</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p34"><span class="s32"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702196104"></a><a id="fn35"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink35"><span class="s33">[35]</span></a><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702196104"><span class="s33"> </span></a>Fang J, Kato C, Runko GM, Nogi Y, Hori T, Li J, Morono Y and Inagaki F (2017) <em class="paper_title">Predominance of Viable Spore-Forming Piezophilic Bacteria in High-Pressure Enrichment Cultures from ~1.5 to 2.4 km-Deep Coal-Bearing Sediments below the Ocean Floor</em>. <i>Front. Microbiol.</i> 8:137. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2017.00137">doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2017.00137</a></span></p> | |||
| <p class="p28"><span class="s34"><a id="fn36"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink36">[36]</a></span> See discussion in: Nicholson, W.L. (2020). <em class="paper_title">Spore-Forming Bacteria as Model Organisms for Studies in Astrobiology. In Extremophiles as Astrobiological Models</em> (eds J. Seckbach and H. Stan-Lotter). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119593096.ch13">doi.org/10.1002/9781119593096.ch13</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s22"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119593096.ch13"></a><a id="fn37"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink37">[37]</a></span> Full video is at <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?522488-1/nasa-holds-briefing-moon-mars-program">https://www.c-span.org/video/?522488-1/nasa-holds-briefing-moon-mars-program</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn38"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink38">[38]</a> Obama originally directed NASA to land by 2033; Nelson said that the earliest a Mars landing can happen now is in the late 2030’s or early 2040’s.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn39"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink39">[39]</a> Not a typo; the total budget for ocean exploration is about half of what NASA plans to spend next year ($48.3 M) on architecture studies for Mars.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn40"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink40">[40]</a> Here are the reasons a “Why Mars?” conference came up with in 1992:</p> | |||
| <ol> | |||
| <li><b>Human Evolution</b>- Mars is the next logical step in the expansion of the human race into the stars.</li> | |||
| <li><b>Comparative Planetology</b>- by understanding Mars and its evolution as a planet, a better understanding of Earth will be achieved.</li> | |||
| <li><b>International Cooperation</b>- an international Mars exploration effort has the potential to bring about a sense of global unity as never seen before.</li> | |||
| <li><b>Technological Advancement</b>- the development of new and improved technologies for the Mars mission will enhance the lives of those on Earth while encouraging high-tech </li><li><b>Inspiration</b>- the human Mars exploration mission will test our technological abilities to their maximum. The ingenuity of the mobilized populace will be tested and our accomplishments will serve to inspire future generations. A common focus will unite people from around the world as they expand the envelope of achievability.</li> | |||
| <li><b>Investment</b>- the cost of a crewed Mars exploration mission is reasonable when compared with the costs of other current societal expenditures.</li> | |||
| </ol> | |||
| <p class="p11">Note that only the first two of these reasons have any connection to Mars, and even back in 1992, ‘Comparative Planetology’ was best done by space probe. The others are all riffs on “doing difficult things together builds character”, while (6) is just kind of plaintive. Fourth graders writing to Santa make a stronger case for an X-Box than NASA has been able to put together for a Mars landing.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s15"><a id="fn41"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink41">[41]</a> </span>In 2022, NASA spent $6.79B on Exploration (Moon-to-Mars stuff) and $4.04B on Space Operations (running the ISS). I lump the two together since ISS research is almost entirely in support of life support for the Moon-to-Mars mission. Source: https://www.planetary.org/space-policy/nasas-fy-2022-budget</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn42"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink42">[42]</a> The National Science Foundation budget was <a href="https://www.aip.org/fyi/2022/nsf-budget-fy22-outcomes-and-fy23-request">$8.8 billion</a> in 2022. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn43"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink43">[43]</a> More precisely, outside Earth’s magnetosphere, which blocks a large fraction of the radiation that we need to study.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn44"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink44">[44]</a> The key question is whether Martian gravity (0.38g) is enough to stop the kinds of degenerative processes we see in freefall. We’ll talk about this in detail in the section on deconditioning.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn45"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink45">[45]</a> The best guess right now is that a 40 year old woman would face between a 3% and 21% risk of dying from cumulative radiation exposure on a 940 day Mars mission (at 95% confidence). The large uncertainty comes from lack of data on the effects of heavy ion radiation. See Francis A. Cucinotta, Eliedonna Cacao, Myung-Hee Y. Kim, Premkumar B. Saganti, <em class="paper_title">Cancer and circulatory disease risks for a human mission to Mars: Private mission considerations</em>, Acta Astronautica, Volume 166, 2020. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2018.08.022">doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2018.08.022</a>.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn46"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink46">[46]</a> I’ll talk about why it’s impractical to build a rotating spacecraft for this purpose in the section on artificial gravity.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn47"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink47">[47]</a> Trump actually <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/01/trump-offered-nasa-unlimited-funding-to-go-to-mars-by-2020.html">made this offer to NASA</a>, who sensibly refused. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn48"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink48">[48]</a> There’s no a priori reason a Mars mission has to have closed-loop life support, but NASA treats it as a requirement. As a practical matter, you do have to at least recycle water. I’ll discuss open/closed loop tradeoffs in detail in the section on life support.</p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><span class="s15"><a id="fn49"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink49">[49]</a> The current mass of ECLSS components on the ISS is 1,776 kg (source: ICES-2021-212, An Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) for Deep Space and Commercial Habitats), with an estimated cost of development of $200 million, giving $110,000 per kilogram. At this writing, the price of gold was $58,000 per kilogram.</span></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn50"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink50">[50]</a> I’ll talk about the four basic mission types later. Here I’m assuming a long-stay surface mission, but the argument holds for any of them.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn51"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink51">[51]</a> One way to make the problem not matter is to contaminate Mars early and often, which makes Musk’s plan to land cargo on the surface in bulk as soon as possible particularly cynical.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn52"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink52">[52]</a> No mission has searched for life on Mars since the original Viking landers (which I’m calling Step 0).</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn53"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink53">[53]</a> The Viking landers were the cleanest objects ever sent to Mars; subsequent landers and rovers have received more of a quick wipedown. I’ll talk about the complex standards that govern this in the section on contamination. For a good rant on the qualitative difference between robots and human crews, see Alberto G. Fairén, Victor Parro, Dirk Schulze-Makuch, and Lyle Whyte. “<em class="paper_title">Searching for Life on Mars before it is too late</em>” Astrobiology. Oct 2017. 962-970. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2017.1703">doi.org/10.1089/ast.2017.1703</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><span class="s13"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2017.1703"></a><a id="fn54"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink54">[54]</a></span> I’ll talk about why microbial communities are vastly more adaptive than singletons in the section on microbes.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn55"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink55">[55]</a> The requirement to avoid contamination is a clause in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty">1967 Outer Space Treaty</a>. The detailed guidelines for what this means are formulated by an international body called COSPAR. I'll go over these rules in gripping detail in the section on contamination.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn56"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink56">[56]</a> For a taste of how restrictive an explorer's life would be, see Bobskill, Marianne, and Mark L. Lupisella. "<em class="paper_title">Human Mars Mission Surface Science Operations</em>." In <i>SpaceOps 2014 Conference</i>, p. 1620. 2014. https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2014-1620</p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><a id="fn57"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink57">[57]</a> See <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-22-003.pdf">NASA’s Management of the Artemis Missions</a>, Office of Inspector General (IG-22-003)</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn58"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink58">[58]</a> As a rough rule of thumb, a probe to explore a planetary system costs $5 billion, while a smaller mission costs $1 billion. This does not factor in economies of scale from building and launching a number of probes at once, since we’ve never had the money to do that.</p> | |||
| <p class="p11"><span class="s15"><a id="fn59"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink59">[59]</a> The moons with liquid water are Ganymede, Europa, Callisto and Enceladus, with a recent surprise fifth contender, Mimas, the little moon that looks like a Death Star.</span></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn60"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink60">[60]</a> Voyager 2 flew by Uranus in 1986 and Neptune in 1988, and that’s the last we saw of them.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn61"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink61">[61]</a> NASA plans to de-orbit the ISS in 2031, but Roscosmos <a href="https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/space-missions/international-space-station-retirement/">says they’ll bail</a> in 2024. </p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn62"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink62">[62]</a> I base this figure on the 2023 NASA budget request, which earmarks $7.4 billion for Moon-to-Mars stuff and $4.2 billion for the ISS.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn63"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink63">[63]</a> For context, consider the cost of missions like Europa Clipper ($5 billion), the Mars Science Laboratory / Curiosity Mars rover ($3.2 billion), or the Roman Space Telescope ($3.2 billion). There is potential for substantial savings by binning similar missions, sharing hardware, and not being forced to launch on NASA’s overpriced rockets.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn64"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink64">[64]</a> No one seems to want to go to Venus, but conditions higher up in the atmosphere are surprisingly mild (0.53 bar, 27C at ~55km). If not for the sulfuric acid, astronauts could even go relax outside their blimp wearing just shorts and an oxygen mask. For a cool blimp mission to Venus, see: <a href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329">https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329</a></p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn65"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink65">[65]</a> I’m assuming the adults who run SpaceX have a more realistic plan for Mars that they kept hidden away from Musk, in a room he doesn’t know exists. Here I’m only talking about Musk’s version.</p> | |||
| <p class="p7"><a id="fn66"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fnlink66">[66]</a> I would pay large sums of American money to be a fly on the wall at the meeting where someone tries to pitch senior career civil servants on working for Elon Musk.</p> | |||
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| <h1>The Lunacy of Artemis (Idle Words)</h1> | |||
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| <p>A little over 51 years ago, a rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral carrying three astronauts and a space car. After a three day journey to the moon, two of the astronauts climbed into a spindly lander and made the short trip down to the surface, where for another three days they collected rocks and did donuts in the space car. Then they climbed back into the lander, rejoined their colleague in orbit, and departed for Earth. Their capsule splashed down in the South Pacific on December 19, 1972. This mission, Apollo 17, would be the last time human beings ventured beyond low Earth orbit. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>If you believe NASA, late in 2026 Americans will walk on the moon again. That proposed mission is called Artemis 3, and its lunar segment looks a lot like Apollo 17 without the space car. Two astronauts will land on the moon, collect rocks, take selfies, and about a week after landing rejoin their orbiting colleagues to go back to Earth. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>But where Apollo 17 launched on a single rocket and cost $3.3 billion (in 2023 dollars), the first Artemis landing involves a dozen or two heavy rocket launches and costs so much that NASA refuses to give a figure (one veteran of NASA budgeting estimates it at $7-10 billion).<a id="fn_cost"></a><a class="fnote" href="#cost"><span class="s9"><sup>[1]</sup></span></a> The single-use lander for the mission will be the heaviest spacecraft ever flown, and yet the mission's scientific return—a small box of rocks—is less than what came home on Apollo 17. And the whole plan hinges on technologies that haven't been invented yet becoming reliable and practical within the next eighteen months. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to wonder what’s going on here. If we can put a man on the moon, then why can't we just go do it again? The moon hasn’t changed since the 1960’s, while every technology we used to get there has seen staggering advances. It took NASA eight years to go from nothing to a moon landing at the dawn of the Space Age. But today, twenty years and $93 billion after the space agency announced our return to the moon, the goal seems as far out of reach as ever.<a id="fn_nasatime"></a><a class="fnote" href="#nasatime"><span class="s9"><sup>[2]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Articles about Artemis often give the program’s tangled backstory. But I want to talk about Artemis as a technical design, because there’s just so much to drink in. While NASA is no stranger to complex mission architectures, Artemis goes beyond complex to the just plain incoherent. None of the puzzle pieces seem to come from the same box. Half the program requires breakthrough technologies that make the other half unnecessary. The rocket and spacecraft NASA spent two decades building can’t even reach the moon. And for reasons no one understands, there’s a new space station in the mix. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>In the past, whatever oddball project NASA came up with, we at least knew they could build the hardware. But Artemis calls the agency’s competence as an engineering organization into question. For the first time since the early 1960's, it's unclear whether the US space agency is even <i>capable</i> of putting astronauts on the moon. | |||
| <br> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/apollo_flight_path.jpg" alt="Photograph of SLS rocket"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="apollo">A Note on Apollo</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>In this essay I make a lot of comparisons to Project Apollo. This is not because I think other mission architectures are inferior, but because the early success of that program sets such a useful baseline. At the dawn of the Space Age, using rudimentary technology, American astronauts landed on the moon six times in seven attempts. The moon landings were NASA’s greatest achievement and should set a floor for what a modern mission, flying modern hardware, might achieve. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Advocates for Artemis insist that the program is more than Apollo 2.0. But as we’ll see, Artemis can't even measure up to Apollo 1.0. It costs more, does less, flies less frequently, and exposes crews to risks that the steely-eyed missile men of the Apollo era found unacceptable. It's as if Ford in 2024 released a new model car that was slower, more accident-prone, and ten times more expensive than the Model T. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>When a next-generation lunar program can’t meet the cost, performance, or safety standards set three generations earlier, something has gone seriously awry. | |||
| <br> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/sls_image.jpg" alt="Photograph of SLS rocket"></p> | |||
| <p><a name="sls"><b>I. The Rocket</b></a></p> | |||
| <p>The jewel of Artemis is a big orange rocket with a flavorless name, the Space Launch System (SLS). SLS looks like someone started building a Space Shuttle and ran out of legos for the orbiter. There is the familiar orange tank, a big white pair of solid rocket boosters, but then the rocket just peters out in a 1960’s style stack of cones and cylinders. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>The best way to think of SLS is as a balding guy with a mullet: there are fireworks down below that are meant to distract you from a sad situation up top. In the case of the rocket, those fireworks are a first stage with more thrust than the Saturn V, enough thrust that the boosted core stage can nearly put itself into orbit. But on top of this monster sits a second stage so anemic that even its name (the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage) is a kind of apology. For eight minutes SLS roars into the sky on a pillar of fire. And then, like a cork popping out of a bottle, the tiny ICPS emerges and drifts vaguely moonwards on a wisp of flame. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>With this design, the minds behind SLS achieved a first in space flight, creating a rocket that is at the same time more powerful and less capable than the Saturn V. While the 1960’s giant could send 49 metric tons to the moon, SLS only manages 27 tons—not enough to fly an Apollo-style landing, not enough to even put a crew in orbit around the moon without a lander. The best SLS can do is slingshot the Orion spacecraft once around the moon and back, a mission that will fly under the name Artemis 2. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>NASA wants to replace ICPS with an ‘Exploration Upper Stage’ (the project has been held up, among other things, by a <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IG-22-012.pdf">near-billion dollar cost overrun on a launch pad</a>). But even that upgrade won’t give SLS the power of the Saturn V. For whatever reason, NASA designed its first heavy launcher in forty years to be unable to fly the simple, proven architecture of the Apollo missions. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Of course, plenty of rockets go on to enjoy rewarding, productive careers without being as powerful as the Saturn V. And if SLS rockets were piling up at the Michoud Assembly Facility like cordwood, or if NASA were willing to let its astronauts fly commercial, it would be a simple matter to split Artemis missions across multiple launches. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>But NASA insists that astronauts fly SLS. And SLS is a “one and done” rocket, artisanally hand-crafted by a workforce that likes to get home before traffic gets bad. The rocket can only launch once every two years at a cost of about four billion dollars<a id="fn_slscost"></a><a class="fnote" href="#slscost"><span class="s9"><sup>[3]</sup></span></a>—about twice what it would cost to light the rocket’s weight in dollar bills on fire<a id="fn_dollarbills"></a><a class="fnote" href="#dollarbills"><span class="s9"><sup>[4]</sup></span></a>. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Early on, SLS designers made the catastrophic decision to reuse Shuttle hardware, which is like using Fabergé eggs to save money on an omelette. The SLS core stage recycles Space Shuttle main engines, actual veterans of old Shuttle flights called out of retirement for one last job. Refurbishing a single such engine to work on SLS costs NASA $40 million, or a bit more than SpaceX spends on all 33 engines on its Superheavy booster.<a id="fn_refurb"></a><a class="fnote" href="#refurb"><span class="s9"><sup>[5]</sup></span></a> And though the Shuttle engines are designed to be fully reusable (the main reason they're so expensive), every SLS launch throws four of them away. Once all the junkyards are picked clean, NASA will pay Aerojet Rocketdyne to restart production of the classic engine at a cool unit cost of $145 million<a id="fn_rs25restart"></a><a class="fnote" href="#rs25restart"><span class="s9"><sup>[6]</sup></span></a>. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>The story is no better with the solid rocket boosters, the other piece of Shuttle hardware SLS reuses. Originally a stopgap measure introduced to save the Shuttle budget, these heavy rockets now attach themselves like barnacles to every new NASA launcher design. To no one’s surprise, retrofitting a bunch of heavy steel casings left over from Shuttle days has saved the program nothing. Each SLS booster is now projected to cost $266 million, or about twice the launch cost of a Falcon Heavy.<a id="fn_fheavy"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fheavy"><span class="s9"><sup>[7]</sup></span></a> Just replacing the asbestos lining in the boosters with a greener material, a project budgeted at $4.4M, has now cost NASA a quarter of a billion dollars. And once the leftover segments run out seven rockets from now, SLS will need a brand new booster design, opening up fertile new vistas of overspending. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Costs on SLS have reached the point where private industry is now able to develop, test, and launch an entire rocket <i>program</i> for less than NASA spends on a single engine<a id="fn_electron"></a><a class="fnote" href="#electron"><span class="s9"><sup>[8]</sup></span></a>. Flying SLS is like owning a classic car—everything is hand built, the components cost a fortune, and when you finally get the thing out of the shop, you find yourself constantly overtaken by younger rivals. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>But the cost of SLS to NASA goes beyond money. The agency has committed to an antiquated frankenrocket just as the space industry is entering a period of unprecedented innovation. While other space programs get to romp and play with technologies like reusable stages and exotic alloys, NASA is stuck for years wasting a massive, skilled workforce on a dead-end design. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>The SLS program's slow pace also affects safety. Back in the Shuttle era, NASA managers argued that it took three to four launches a year to keep workers proficient enough to build and launch the vehicles safely. A boutique approach where workers hand-craft one rocket every two years means having to re-learn processes and procedures with every launch. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>It also leaves no room in Artemis for test flights. The program simply assumes success, flying all its important 'firsts' with astronauts on board. When there are unanticipated failures, like the extensive heat shield spalling and near burn-through observed in Artemis 1,<a id="fn_heatshield"></a><a class="fnote" href="#heatshield"><span class="s9"><sup>[9]</sup></span></a> the agency has no way to test a proposed fix without a multi-year delay to the program. So they end up using indirect means to convince themselves that a new design is safe to fly, a process ripe for error and self-delusion. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/orion_oversize.jpg" alt="Orion space capsule with OVERSIZE LOAD banner"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="Orion">II. The Capsule</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>Orion, the capsule that launches on top of SLS, is a relaxed-fit reimagining of the Apollo command module suitable for today’s larger astronaut. It boasts modern computers, half again as much volume as the 1960’s design, and a few creature comforts (like not having to poop in a baggie) that would have pleased the Apollo pioneers. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>The capsule’s official name is the Orion Multipurpose Crew Vehicle, but finding even a single purpose for Orion has greatly challenged NASA. For twenty years the spacecraft has mostly sat on the ground, chewing through a $1.2 billion annual budget. In 2014, the first Orion flew a brief test flight. Eight short years later, Orion launched again, carrying a crew of instrumented mannequins around the moon on Artemis 1. In 2025 the capsule (by then old enough to drink) is supposed to fly human passengers on Artemis 2. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Orion goes to space attached to a basket of amenities called the European Service Module. The ESM provides Orion with solar panels, breathing gas, batteries, and a small rocket that is the capsule’s principal means of propulsion. But because the ESM was never designed to go to the moon, it carries very little propellant—far too little to get the hefty capsule in and out of lunar orbit.<a id="fn_oriondeltav"></a><a class="fnote" href="#oriondeltav"><span class="s9"><sup>[10]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>And Orion is hefty. Originally designed to hold six astronauts, the capsule was never resized when the crew requirement shrank to four. Like an empty nester’s minivan, Orion now hauls around a bunch of mass and volume that it doesn’t need. Even with all the savings that come from replacing Apollo-era avionics, the capsule weighs almost twice as much as the Apollo Command Module. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>This extra mass has knock-on effects across the entire Artemis design. Since a large capsule needs a large abort rocket, SLS has to haul Orion's massive Launch Abort System—seven tons of dead weight—nearly all the way into orbit. And reinforcing the capsule so that abort system won't shake the astronauts into jelly means making it heavier, which puts more demand on the parachutes and heat shield, and around and around we go. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/csm_orion_esm.jpg" alt="Orion space capsule with OVERSIZE LOAD banner"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Size comparison of the Apollo command and service module (left) and Orion + European Service Module (right)</p> | |||
| <p>What’s particularly frustrating is that Orion and ESM together have nearly the same mass as the Apollo command and service modules, which had no trouble reaching the moon. The difference is all in the proportions. Where Apollo was built like a roadster, with a small crew compartment bolted onto an oversized engine, Orion is the Dodge Journey of spacecraft—a chunky, underpowered six-seater that advertises to the world that you're terrible at managing money. | |||
| <br><br> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/nrho.jpg" alt="diagram of near-rectilinear halo orbit"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="orbit">III. The Orbit</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>The fact that neither its rocket or spaceship can get to the moon creates difficulties for NASA’s lunar program. So, like an aging crooner transposing old hits into an easier key, the agency has worked to find a ‘lunar-adjacent’ destination that its hardware can get to. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Their solution is a bit of celestial arcana called Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit, or NRHO. A spacecraft in this orbit circles the moon every 6.5 days, passing 1,000 kilometers above the lunar north pole at closest approach, then drifting out about 70,000 kilometers (a fifth of the Earth/Moon distance) at its furthest point. Getting to NRHO from Earth requires significantly less energy than entering a useful lunar orbit, putting it just within reach for SLS and Orion.<a id="fn_nrho"></a><a class="fnote" href="#nrho"><span class="s9"><sup>[11]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>To hear NASA tell it, NRHO is so full of advantages that it’s a wonder we stay on Earth. Spacecraft in the orbit always have a sightline to Earth and never pass through its shadow. The orbit is relatively stable, so a spacecraft can loiter there for months using only ion thrusters. And the deep space environment is the perfect place to practice going to Mars. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>But NRHO is terrible for getting to the moon. The orbit is like one of those European budget airports that leaves you out in a field somewhere, requiring an expensive taxi. In Artemis, this taxi takes the form of a whole other spaceship—the lunar lander—which launches without a crew a month or two before Orion and is supposed to be waiting in NRHO when the capsule arrives. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Once these two spacecraft dock together, two astronauts climb into the lander from Orion and begin a day-long descent to the lunar surface. The other two astronauts wait for them in NRHO, playing hearts and quietly absorbing radiation. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Apollo landings also divided the crew between lander and orbiter. But those missions kept the command module in a low lunar orbit that brought it over the landing site every two hours. This proximity between orbiter and lander had enormous implications for safety. At any point in the surface mission, the astronauts on the moon could climb into the ascent rocket, hit the big red button, and be back sipping Tang with the command module pilot by bedtime. The short orbital period also gave the combined crew a dozen opportunities a day to return directly to Earth. <a id="fn_abort"></a><a class="fnote" href="#abort"><span class="s9"><sup>[12]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Sitting in NRHO makes abort scenarios much harder. Depending on when in the mission it happens, a stricken lander might need three or more days to catch up with the orbiting Orion. In the worst case, the crew might find themselves stuck on the lunar surface for hours after an abort is called, forced to wait for Orion to reach a more favorable point in its orbit. And once everyone is back on Orion, more days might pass before the crew can depart for Earth. These long and variable abort times significantly increase risk to the crew, making many scenarios that were survivable on Apollo (like Apollo 13!) lethal on Artemis. <a id="fn_abortnrho"></a><a class="fnote" href="#abortnrho"><span class="s9"><sup>[13]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>The abort issue is just one example of NRHO making missions slower. NASA likes to boast that Orion can stay in space far longer than Apollo, but this is like bragging that you’re in the best shape of your life after the bank repossessed your car. It's an oddly positive spin to put on bad life choices. The reason Orion needs all that endurance is because transit times from Earth to NRHO are long, and the crew has to waste additional time in NRHO waiting for orbits to line up. The Artemis 3 mission, for example, will spend 24 days in transit, compared to just 6 days on Apollo 11. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>NRHO even dictates how long astronauts stay on the moon—surface time has to be a multiple of the 6.5 day orbital period. This lack of flexibility means that even early flag-and-footprints missions like Artemis 3 have to spend at least a week on the moon, a constraint that adds considerable risk to the initial landing. <a id="fn_landingrisk"></a><a class="fnote" href="#landingrisk"><span class="s9"><sup>[14]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>In spaceflight, brevity is safety. There's no better way to protect astronauts from the risks of solar storms, mechanical failure, and other mishaps than by minimizing slack time in space. Moreover, a safe architecture should allow for a rapid return to Earth at any point in the mission. There’s no question astronauts on the first Artemis missions would be better off with Orion in low lunar orbit. The decision to stage from NRHO is an excellent example of NASA designing its lunar program in the wrong direction—letting deficiencies in the hardware dictate the level of mission risk. | |||
|  | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/gateway_diagram.jpg" alt="diagram of Gateway"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Early diagram of Gateway. Note that the segment marked 'human lander system' now dwarfs the space station.</p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="gateway">IV. Gateway</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>I suppose at some point we have to talk about Gateway. Gateway is a small modular space station that NASA wants to build in NRHO. It has been showing up across various missions like a bad smell since before 2012. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Early in the Artemis program, NASA described Gateway as a kind of celestial truck stop, a safe place for the lander to park and for the crew to grab a cup of coffee on their way to the moon. But when it became clear that Gateway would not be ready in time for Artemis 3, NASA re-evaluated. Reasoning that two spacecraft could meet up in NRHO just as easily as three, the agency gave permission for the first moon landing to proceed without a space station. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Despite this open admission that Gateway is unnecessary, building the space station remains the core activity of the Artemis program. The three missions that follow that first landing are devoted chiefly to Gateway assembly. In fact, initial plans for Artemis 4 left out a lunar landing entirely, as if it were an inconvenience to the real work being done up in orbit. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>This is a remarkable situation. It’s like if you hired someone to redo your kitchen and they started building a boat in your driveway. Sure, the boat gives the builders a place to relax, lets them practice tricky plumbing and finishing work, and is a safe place to store their tools. But all those arguments will fail to satisfy. You still want to know what building a boat has to do with kitchen repair, and why you’re the one footing the bill. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>NASA has struggled to lay out a technical rationale for Gateway. The space station adds both cost and complexity to Artemis, a program not particularly lacking in either. Requiring moon-bound astronauts to stop at Gateway also makes missions riskier (by adding docking operations) while imposing a big propellant tax. Aerospace engineer and pundit Robert Zubrin has aptly called the station a tollbooth in space. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Even Gateway defenders struggle to hype up the station. A common argument is that Gateway may not ideal for any one thing, but is good for a whole lot of things. But that is the same line of thinking that got us SLS and Orion, both vehicles designed before anyone knew what to do with them. The truth is that all-purpose designs don't exist in human space flight. The best you can do is build a spacecraft that is equally bad at everything. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>But to search for technical grounds is to misunderstand the purpose of Gateway. The station is not being built to shelter astronauts in the harsh environment of space, but to protect Artemis in the harsh environment of Congress. NASA needs Gateway to navigate an uncertain political landscape in the 2030’s. Without a station, Artemis will just be a series of infrequent multibillion dollar moon landings, a red cape waved in the face of the Office of Management and Budget. Gateway armors Artemis by bringing in international partners, each of whom contributes expensive hardware. As NASA learned building the International Space Station, this combination of sunk costs and international entanglement is a powerful talisman against program death. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Gateway also solves some other problems for NASA. It gives SLS a destination to fly to, stimulates private industry (by handing out public money to supply Gateway), creates a job for the astronaut corps, and guarantees the continuity of human space flight once the ISS becomes uninhabitable sometime in the 2030’s. <a id="fn_iss"></a><a class="fnote" href="#iss"><span class="s9"><sup>[15]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>That last goal may sound odd if you don’t see human space flight as an end in itself. But NASA is a faith-based organization, dedicated to the principle that taxpayers should always keep an American or two in orbit. it’s a little bit as if the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration insisted on keeping bathyscapes full of sailors at the bottom of the sea, irrespective of cost or merit, and kneecapped programs that might threaten the continuous human benthic presence. You can’t argue with faith. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>From a bureaucrat’s perspective, Gateway is NASA’s ticket back to a golden era in the early 2000's when the Space Station and Space Shuttle formed an uncancellable whole, each program justifying the existence of the other. Recreating this dynamic with Gateway and SLS/Orion would mean predictable budgets and program stability for NASA well into the 2050’s. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>But Artemis was supposed to take us back to a different golden age, the golden age of Apollo. And so there’s an unresolved tension in the program between building Gateway and doing interesting things on the moon. With Artemis missions two or more years apart, it’s inevitable that Gateway assembly will push aspirational projects like a surface habitat or pressurized rover out into the 2040’s. But those same projects are on the critical path to Mars, where NASA still insists we’re going in the late 2030’s. The situation is awkward. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>So that is the story of Gateway—unloved, ineradicable, and as we’ll see, likely to become the sole legacy of the Artemis program. | |||
|  | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/pointy_rocket.jpg" alt="artist's rendering of human landing system'"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="lander">V. The Lander</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>The lunar lander is the most technically ambitious part of Artemis. Where SLS, Orion, and Gateway are mostly a compilation of NASA's greatest hits, the lander requires breakthrough technologies with the potential to revolutionize space travel. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Of course, you can’t just call it a lander. In Artemis speak, this spacecraft is the Human Landing System, or HLS. NASA has delegated its design to two private companies, Blue Origin and SpaceX. SpaceX is responsible for landing astronauts on Artemis 3 and 4, while Blue Origin is on the hook for Artemis 5 (notionally scheduled for 2030). After that, the agency will take competitive bids for subsequent missions. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>The SpaceX HLS design is based on their experimental Starship spacecraft, an enormous rocket that takes off on and lands on its tail, like 1950’s sci-fi. There is a strong “emperor’s new clothes” vibe to this design. On the one hand, it is the brainchild of brilliant SpaceX engineers and passed NASA technical review. On the other hand, the lander seems to go out of its way to create problems for itself to solve with technology. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/hls_lem.jpg" alt="artist's rendering of human landing system'"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">An early SpaceX rendering of the Human Landing System, with the Apollo Lunar Module added for scale.</p> | |||
| <p>To start with the obvious, HLS looks more likely to tip over than the last two spacecraft to land on the moon, which <a href="https://www.space.com/intuitive-machines-odysseus-moon-lander-tipped-over">tipped</a> <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japanese-moon-lander-reaches-surface-but-fate-uncertain/">over</a>. It is a fifteen story tower that must land on its ass in terrible lighting conditions, on rubble of unknown composition, over a light-second from Earth. The crew are left suspended so high above the surface that they need a folding space elevator (not the cool kind) to get down. And yet in the end this single-use lander carries less payload (both up and down) than the tiny Lunar Module on Apollo 17. Using Starship to land two astronauts on the moon is like delivering a pizza with an aircraft carrier. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Amusingly, the sheer size of the SpaceX design leaves it with little room for cargo. The spacecraft arrives on the Moon laden with something like 200 tons of cryogenic propellant,<a id="fn_hlsprop"></a><a class="fnote" href="#hlsprop"><span class="s9"><sup>[16]</sup></span></a> and like a fat man leaving an armchair, it needs every drop of that energy to get its bulk back off the surface. Nor does it help matters that all this cryogenic propellant has to cook for a week in direct sunlight. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Other, less daring lander designs reduce their appetite for propellant by using a detachable landing stage. This arrangement also shields the ascent rocket from hypervelocity debris that gets kicked up during landing. But HLS is a one-piece rocket; the same engines that get sandblasted on their way down to the moon must relight without fail a week later. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Given this fact, it’s remarkable that NASA’s contract with SpaceX doesn’t require them to demonstrate a lunar takeoff. All SpaceX has to do to satisfy NASA requirements is land an HLS prototype on the Moon. Questions about ascent can then presumably wait until the actual mission, when we all find out together with the crew whether HLS can take off again.<a id="fn_ascent"></a><a class="fnote" href="#ascent"><span class="s9"><sup>[17]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>This fearlessness in design is part of a pattern with Starship HLS. Problems that other landers avoid in the design phase are solved with engineering. And it’s kind of understandable why SpaceX does it this way. Starship is meant to fly to Mars, a much bigger challenge than landing two people on the moon. If the basic Starship design can’t handle a lunar landing, it would throw the company’s whole Mars plan into question. SpaceX is committed to making Starship work, which is different from making the best possible lunar lander. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Less obvious is why NASA tolerates all this complexity in the most hazardous phase of its first moon mission. Why land a rocket the size of a building packed with moving parts? It’s hard to look at the HLS design and not think back to other times when a room full of smart NASA people talked themselves into taking major risks because the alternative was not getting to fly at all. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>It’s instructive to compare the HLS approach to the design philosophy on Apollo. Engineers on that progam were motivated by terror; no one wanted to make the mistake that would leave astronauts stranded on the moon. The weapon they used to knock down risk was simplicity. The Lunar Module was a small metal box with a wide stance, built low enough so that the astronauts only needed to climb down a short ladder. The bottom half of the LM was a descent stage that completely covered the ascent rocket (a design that showed its value on Apollo 15, when one of the descent engines got <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Descent_propulsion_system#/media/File:Apollo_15_Engine_Bell.jpg">smushed by a rock</a>). And that ascent rocket, the most important piece of hardware in the lander, was a caveman design intentionally made so primitive that it would struggle to find ways to fail. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>On Artemis, it's the other way around: the more hazardous the mission phase, the more complex the hardware. It's hard to look at all this lunar machinery and feel reassured, especially when NASA's own Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel estimates that the Orion/SLS portion of a moon mission alone (not including anything to do with HLS) already <a href="https://oiir.hq.nasa.gov/asap/documents/2014_ASAP_Annual_Report.pdf">has a 1:75 chance</a> of killing the crew. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/fuel_fight.jpg" alt="artist's rendering of human landing system'"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="refueling">VI. Refueling</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>Since NASA’s biggest rocket struggles to get Orion into distant lunar orbit, and HLS weighs fifty times as much as Orion, the curious reader might wonder how the unmanned lander is supposed to get up there. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>NASA’s answer is, very sensibly, “not our problem”. They are paying Blue Origin and SpaceX the big bucks to figure this out on their own. And as a practical matter, the only way to put such a massive spacecraft into NRHO is to first refuel it in low Earth orbit. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Like a lot of space technology, orbital refueling sounds simple, has never been attempted, and can’t be adequately simulated on Earth.<a id="fn_refuel"></a><a class="fnote" href="#refuel"><span class="s9"><sup>[18]</sup></span></a> The crux of the problem is that liquid and gas phases in microgravity jumble up into a three-dimensional mess, so that even measuring the quantity of propellant in a tank becomes difficult. To make matters harder, Starship uses cryogenic propellants that boil at temperatures about a hundred degrees colder than the plumbing they need to move through. Imagine trying to pour water from a thermos into a red-hot skillet while falling off a cliff and you get some idea of the difficulties. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>To get refueling working, SpaceX will first have to demonstrate propellant transfer between rockets as a proof of concept, and then get the process working reliably and efficiently at a scale of hundreds of tons. (These are two distinct challenges). Once they can routinely move liquid oxygen and methane from Starship A to Starship B, they’ll be ready to set up the infrastructure they need to launch HLS. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/fueling_conops.jpg" alt="artist's rendering of human landing system'"></p> | |||
| <p>The plan for getting HLS to the moon looks like this: a few months before the landing date, SpaceX will launch a special variant of their Starship rocket configured to serve as a propellant depot. Then they'll start launching Starships one by one to fill it up. Each Starship arrives in low Earth orbit with some residual propellant; it will need to dock with the depot rocket and transfer over this remnant fuel. Once the depot is full, SpaceX will launch HLS, have it fill its tanks at the depot rocket, and send it up to NRHO in advance of Orion. When Orion arrives, HLS will hopefully have enough propellant left on board to take on astronauts and make a single round trip from NRHO to the lunar surface. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Getting this plan to work requires solving a second engineering problem, how to keep cryogenic propellants cold in space. Low earth orbit is a toasty place, and without special measures, the cryogenic propellants Starship uses will quickly vent off into space. The problem is easy to solve in deep space (use a sunshade), but becomes tricky in low Earth orbit, where a warm rock covers a third of the sky. (Boil-off is also a big issue for HLS on the moon.) | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p> It’s not clear how many Starship launches it will take to refuel HLS. Elon Musk has said four might be enough; NASA Assistant Deputy Associate Administrator Lakiesha Hawkins says the number is in the “high teens”. Last week, SpaceX's Kathy Lueders <a href="https://youtu.be/vOg49BVhU40?si=6q8R2qvkmEDPGy0V&t=2381">gave a figure of fifteen launches</a>. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>The real number is unknown and will come down to four factors: | |||
| </p> | |||
| <ol> | |||
| <li>How much propellant a Starship can carry to low Earth orbit.</li> | |||
| <li>What fraction of that can be usably pumped out of the rocket. </li> | |||
| <li>How quickly cryogenic propellant boils away from the orbiting depot.</li> | |||
| <li>How rapidly SpaceX can launch Starships.</li> | |||
| </ol> | |||
| <p>SpaceX probably knows the answer to (1), but isn’t talking. Data for (2) and (3) will have to wait for flight tests that are planned for 2025. And obviously a lot is riding on (4), also called launch cadence. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>The record for heavy rocket launch cadence belongs to the Space Shuttle, which flew nine times in the calendar year before the Challenger disaster. Second place belongs to the Saturn V, which launched three times during a four and a half month period in 1969. In third place is Falcon Heavy, which flew six times in a 13 month period beginning in November 2022. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>For the refueling plan to work, Starship will have to break this record by a factor of ten, launching every six days or so across multiple launch facilities. <a id="fn_cadence"></a><a class="fnote" href="#cadence"><span class="s9"><sup>[19]</sup></span></a> The refueling program can tolerate a few launch failures, as long as none of them damages a launch pad. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>There’s no company better prepared to meet this challenge than SpaceX. Their Falcon 9 rocket has shattered records for both reliability and cadence, and now launches about once every three days. But it took SpaceX ten years to get from the first orbital Falcon 9 flight to a weekly cadence, and Starship is vastly bigger and more complicated than the Falcon 9. <a id="fn_falcon9"></a><a class="fnote" href="#falcon9"><span class="s9"><sup>[20]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Working backwards from the official schedule allows us to appreciate the time pressure facing SpaceX. To make the official Artemis landing date, SpaceX has to land an unmanned HLS prototype on the moon in early 2026. That means tanker flights to fill an orbiting depot would start in late 2025. This doesn’t leave a lot of time for the company to invent orbital refueling, get it working at scale, make it efficient, deal with boil-off, get Starship launching reliably, begin recovering booster stages,<a id="fn_recovery"></a><a class="fnote" href="#recovery"><span class="s9"><sup>[21]</sup></span></a> set up additional launch facilities, achieve a weekly cadence, and at the same time design and test all the other systems that need to go into HLS. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Lest anyone think I’m picking on SpaceX, the development schedule for Blue Origin’s 2029 lander is even more fantastical. That design requires pumping tons of liquid hydrogen between spacecraft in lunar orbit, a challenge perhaps an order of magnitude harder than what SpaceX is attempting. Liquid hydrogen is bulky, boils near absolute zero, and is infamous for its ability to leak through anything (the Shuttle program couldn't get a handle on hydrogen leaks on Earth even after a hundred some launches). And the rocket Blue Origin needs to test all this technology has never left the ground. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>The upshot is that NASA has put a pair of last-minute long-shot technology development programs between itself and the moon. Particularly striking is the contrast between the ambition of the HLS designs and the extreme conservatism and glacial pace of SLS/Orion. The same organization that spent 23 years and 20 billion dollars building the world's most vanilla spacecraft demands that SpaceX darken the sky with Starships within four years of signing the initial HLS contract. While thrilling for SpaceX fans, this is pretty unserious behavior from the nation’s space agency, which had several decades' warning that going to the moon would require a lander. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>All this to say, it's universally understood that there won’t be a moon landing in 2026. At some point NASA will have to officially slip the schedule, as it did in 2021, 2023, and at the start of this year. If this accelerating pattern of delays continues, by year’s end we might reach a state of continuous postponement, a kind of scheduling singularity where the landing date for Artemis 3 recedes smoothly and continuously into the future. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Otherwise, it's hard to imagine a manned lunar landing before 2030, if the Artemis program survives that long. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/artemis_cart.jpg" alt="Interior of Skylab"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="conclusion">VII. Conclusion</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>I want to stress that there’s nothing wrong with NASA making big bets on technology. Quite the contrary, the audacious HLS contracts may be the healthiest thing about Artemis. Visionaries at NASA identified a futuristic new energy source (space billionaire egos) and found a way to tap it on a fixed-cost basis. If SpaceX or Blue Origin figure out how to make cryogenic refueling practical, it will mean a big step forward for space exploration, exactly the thing NASA should be encouraging. And if the technology doesn’t pan out, we’ll have found that out mostly by spending Musk’s and Bezos’s money. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>The real problem with Artemis is that it doesn’t think through the consequences of its own success. A working infrastructure for orbital refueling would make SLS and Orion superfluous. Instead of waiting two years to go up on a $4 billion rocket, crews and cargo could launch every weekend on cheap commercial rockets, refueling in low Earth orbit on their way to the moon. A similar logic holds for Gateway. Why assemble a space station out of habitrail pieces out in lunar orbit, like an animal, when you can build one on Earth and launch it in one piece? Better yet, just spraypaint “<b>GATEWAY</b>” on the side of the nearest Starship, send it out to NRHO, and save NASA and its international partners billions. Having a working gas station in low Earth orbit fundamentally changes what is possible, in a way the SLS/Orion arm of Artemis doesn't seem to recognize. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Conversely, if SpaceX and Blue Origin can’t make cryogenic refueling work, then NASA has no plan B for landing on the moon. All the Artemis program will be able to do is assemble Gateway. Promising taxpayers the moon only to deliver ISS Jr. does not broadcast a message of national greatness, and is unlikely to get Congress excited about going to Mars. The hurtful comparisons between American dynamism in the 1960’s and whatever it is we have now will practically write themselves. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>What NASA is doing is like an office worker blowing half their salary on lottery tickets while putting the other half in a pension fund. If the lottery money comes through, then there was really no need for the pension fund. But without the lottery win, there’s not enough money in the pension account to retire on. The two strategies don't make sense together. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>There’s a ‘realist’ school of space flight that concedes all this but asks us to look at the bigger picture. We’re never going to have the perfect space program, the argument goes, but the important thing is forward progress. And Artemis is the first program in years to survive a presidential transition and have a shot at getting us beyond low Earth orbit. With Artemis still funded, and Starship making rapid progress, at some point we’ll finally see American astronauts back on the moon. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>But this argument has two flaws. The first is that it feeds a cycle of dysfunction at NASA that is rapidly making it impossible for us to go anywhere. Holding human space flight to a different standard than NASA’s science missions has been a disaster for space exploration. Right now the Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate (the entity responsible for manned space flight) couldn’t build a toaster for less than a billion dollars. Incompetence, self-dealing, and mismanagement that end careers on the science side of NASA are not just tolerated but rewarded on the human space flight side. Before we let the agency build out its third white elephant project in forty years, it’s worth reflecting on what we're getting in return for half our exploration budget. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>The second, more serious flaw in the “realist” approach is that it enables a culture of institutional mendacity that must ultimately be fatal at an engineering organization. We've reached a point where NASA lies constantly, to both itself and to the public. It lies about schedules and capabilities. It lies about the costs and the benefits of its human spaceflight program. And above all, it lies about risk. All the institutional pathologies identified in the Rogers Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board are alive and well in Artemis—groupthink, management bloat, intense pressure to meet impossible deadlines, and a willingness to manufacture engineering rationales to justify flying unsafe hardware. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>Do we really have to wait for another tragedy, and another beautifully produced Presidential Commission report, to see that Artemis is broken? | |||
| <br><br> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="notes">Notes</a></b></p> | |||
| <p><a id="cost"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_cost">[1]</a> Without NASA's help, it's hard to put a dollar figure on a mission without making somewhat arbitrary decisions about what to include and exclude. The $7-10 billion estimate comes from a Bush-era official in the Office of Management and Budget commenting <a href="https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60228.msg2559545#msg2559545">on the NASA Spaceflight Forum</a> | |||
| </p> | |||
| <blockquote> | |||
| And that $7.2B assumes Artemis III stays on schedule. Based on the FY24 budget request, each additional year between Artemis II and Artemis III adds another $3.5B to $4.0B in Common Exploration to Artemis III. If Artemis III goes off in 2027, then it will be $10.8B total. If 2028, then $14.3B. | |||
| </blockquote> | |||
| <p>In other words, it's hard to break out an actual cost while the launch dates for both Artemis II and III keep slipping. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>NASA's own Inspector General estimates the cost of <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IG-22-003.pdf">just the SLS/Orion portion</a> of a moon landing at $4.1 billion. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="nasatime"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_nasatime">[2]</a> The first US suborbital flight, Friendship 7, launched on May 15, 1961. Armstrong and Aldrin landed on the moon eight years and two months later, on July 21, 1969. President Bush announced the goal of returning to the moon in a January 2004 speech, setting the target date for the first landing "as early as 2015", and no later than 2020. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="slscost"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_slscost">[3]</a> NASA refuses to track the per-launch cost of SLS, so it's easy to get into nerdfights. Since the main cost driver on SLS is the gigantic workforce employed on the project, something like two or three times the headcount of SpaceX, the cost per launch depends a lot on cadence. If you assume a yearly launch rate (the official line), then the rocket costs $2.1 billion a launch. If like me you think one launch every two years is optimistic, the cost climbs up into the $4-5 billion range. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="dollarbills"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_dollarbills">[4]</a> The SLS weighs 2,600 metric tons fully fueled, and conveniently enough a dollar bill weighs about 1 gram. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="refurb"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_refurb">[5]</a> SpaceX does not disclose the cost, but it's widely assumed the Raptor engine used on Superheavy costs $1 million. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="rs25restart"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_rs25restart">[6]</a> The $145 million figure comes from <a href="https://spacenews.com/aerojet-rocketdyne-defends-sls-engine-contract-costs/">dividing the contract cost by the number of engines</a>, caveman style. Others have reached a figure of $100 million for the unit cost of these engines. The important point is not who is right but the fact that NASA is paying vastly more than anyone else for engines of this class. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="fheavy"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_fheavy">[7]</a> $250M is the figure you get by dividing the $3.2 billion Booster Production and Operations contract to Northrop Grumman by the number of boosters (12) in the contract. Source: <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IG-23-015.pdf">Office of the Inspector General</a>. For cost overruns replacing asbestos, see the OIG report on <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IG-23-015.pdf">NASA’s Management of the Space Launch | |||
| System Booster and Engine Contracts</a>. The Department of Defense paid <a href>$130 million</a> for a Falcon Heavy launch in 2023. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="electron"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_electron">[8]</a> Rocket Lab developed, tested, and flew its Electron rocket for a total program cost of <a href="https://twitter.com/Peter_J_Beck/status/1302692025297379328">$100 million</a>. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="heatshield"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_heatshield">[9]</a> In particular, the separation bolts embedded in the Orion heat shield were built based on a flawed thermal model, and need to be redesigned to safely fly a crew. From <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/office-of-inspector-general-oig/audit-reports/nasas-readiness-for-the-artemis-ii-crewed-mission-to-lunar-orbit/">the OIG report</a>: | |||
| </p> | |||
| <blockquote> | |||
| Separation bolt melt beyond the thermal barrier during reentry can expose the vehicle to hot gas ingestion behind the heat shield, exceeding Orion’s structural limits and resulting in the breakup of the vehicle and loss of crew. Post-flight inspections determined there was a discrepancy in the thermal model used to predict the bolts’ performance pre-flight. Current predictions using the correct information suggest the bolt melt exceeds the design capability of Orion. | |||
| </blockquote> | |||
| <p>The current plan is to work around these problems on Artemis 2, and then redesign the components for Artemis 3. That means astronauts have to fly at least twice with an untested heat shield design. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="oriondeltav"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_oriondeltav">[10]</a> | |||
| Orion/ESM has a delta V budget of 1340 m/s. Getting into and out of an equatorial low lunar orbit takes about 1800 m/s, more for a polar orbit. (See <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/nrho-artemis-orbit.pdf">source</a>.) | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="nrho"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_nrho">[11]</a> | |||
| It takes about 900 m/s of total delta V to get in and out of NHRO, comfortably within Orion/ESM's 1340 m/s budget. (See <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/nrho-artemis-orbit.pdf">source</a>.) | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="abort"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_abort">[12]</a> | |||
| In <i>Carrying the Fire</i>, Apollo 11 astronaut Michael Collins recalls carrying a small notebook covering 18 lunar rendezvous scenarios he might be called on to fly in various contingencies. If the Lunar Module could get itself off the surface, there was probably a way to dock with it. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p>For those too young to remember, Tang is a powdered orange drink <a href="https://www.foodandwine.com/lifestyle/how-nasa-made-tang-cool">closely associated</a> with the American space program. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="abortnrho"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_abortnrho">[13]</a> For a detailed (if somewhat cryptic) discussion of possible Artemis abort modes to NRHO, see <a href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20230002566/downloads/HLS%20NRHO%20to%20Lunar%20Surface%20and%20Back%20Mission%20Design_STRIVES.pptx.pdf">HLS NRHO to Lunar Surface and | |||
| Back Mission Design</a>, NASA 2022. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="landingrisk"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_landingrisk">[14]</a> | |||
| The main safety issue is the difficult thermal environment at the landing site, where the Sun sits just above the horizon, heating half the lander. If it weren't for the NRHO constraint, it's very unlikely Artemis 3 would spend more than a day or two on the lunar surface. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="iss"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_iss">[15]</a> | |||
| The ISS program has been repeatedly extended, but the station is coming up against physical limiting factors (like metal fatigue) that will soon make it too dangerous to use. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="hlsprop"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_hlsprop">[16]</a> This is my own speculative guess; the answer is very sensitive to the dry weight of HLS and the boil-off rate of its cryogenic propellants. Delta V from the lunar surface to NRHO is 2,610 m/sec. Assuming HLS weighs 120 tons unfueled, it would need about 150 metric tons of propellant to get into NRHO from the lunar surface. Adding safety margin, fuel for docking operations, and allowing for a week of boiloff gets me to about 200 tons. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="ascent"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_ascent">[17]</a> | |||
| Recent comments by NASA suggest SpaceX has <a href="https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1783877352432263175">voluntarily added an ascent phase</a> to its landing demo, ending a pretty untenable situation. However, there's still no requirement that the unmanned landing/ascent demo be performed using the same lander design that will fly on the actual mission, another oddity in the HLS contract. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="refuel"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_refuel">[18]</a> | |||
| To be precise, I'm talking about moving bulk propellant between rockets in orbit. There are resupply flights to the International Space Station that deliver about 850 kilograms of non-cryogenic propellant to boost the station in its orbit, and there have been small-scale experiments in refueling satellites. But no one has attempted refueling a flown rocket stage in space, cryogenic or otherwise. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="cadence"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_cadence">[19]</a> | |||
| Both SpaceX's <a href="https://youtu.be/vOg49BVhU40?si=6q8R2qvkmEDPGy0V&t=2381">Kathy Lueders</a> and NASA confirm Starship needs to launch from multiple sites. Here's an excerpt from <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/heoc-november-2023-final-v2.pdf">the minutes</a> of the NASA Advisory Council Human Exploration and Operations Committee meeting on November 17 and 20, 2023: | |||
| </p> | |||
| <blockquote> | |||
| Mr. [Wayne] Hale asked where Artemis III will launch from. [Assistant Deputy AA for Moon to Mars Lakiesha] Hawkins said that launch pads will be used in Florida and potentially Texas. The missions will need quite a number of tankers; in order to meet the schedule, there will need to be a rapid succession of launches of fuel, requiring more than one site for launches on a 6-day rotation schedule, and multiples of launches. | |||
| </blockquote> | |||
| <p><a id="falcon9"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_falcon9">[20]</a> Falcon 9 first flew in June of 2010 and achieved a weekly launch cadence over a span of six launches starting in November 2020. | |||
| </p> | |||
| <p><a id="recovery"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_recovery">[21]</a> Recovering Superheavy stages is not a NASA requirement for HLS, but it's a huge cost driver for SpaceX given the number of launches involved. | |||
| </p> | |||
| </article> | |||
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| title: The Lunacy of Artemis (Idle Words) | |||
| url: https://idlewords.com/2024/5/the_lunacy_of_artemis.htm | |||
| hash_url: b1099381931e530393ab2740d48ae1ef | |||
| archive_date: 2024-05-21 | |||
| og_image: https://idlewords.com/images/artemis_cloud.jpg | |||
| description: For the first time since the 1960's, it looks doubtful whether the US space agency is even capable of getting us to the Moon. | |||
| favicon: | |||
| language: | |||
| <p>A little over 51 years ago, a rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral carrying three astronauts and a space car. After a three day journey to the moon, two of the astronauts climbed into a spindly lander and made the short trip down to the surface, where for another three days they collected rocks and did donuts in the space car. Then they climbed back into the lander, rejoined their colleague in orbit, and departed for Earth. Their capsule splashed down in the South Pacific on December 19, 1972. This mission, Apollo 17, would be the last time human beings ventured beyond low Earth orbit. | |||
| </p><p>If you believe NASA, late in 2026 Americans will walk on the moon again. That proposed mission is called Artemis 3, and its lunar segment looks a lot like Apollo 17 without the space car. Two astronauts will land on the moon, collect rocks, take selfies, and about a week after landing rejoin their orbiting colleagues to go back to Earth. | |||
| </p><p>But where Apollo 17 launched on a single rocket and cost $3.3 billion (in 2023 dollars), the first Artemis landing involves a dozen or two heavy rocket launches and costs so much that NASA refuses to give a figure (one veteran of NASA budgeting estimates it at $7-10 billion).<a id="fn_cost"></a><a class="fnote" href="#cost"><span class="s9"><sup>[1]</sup></span></a> The single-use lander for the mission will be the heaviest spacecraft ever flown, and yet the mission's scientific return—a small box of rocks—is less than what came home on Apollo 17. And the whole plan hinges on technologies that haven't been invented yet becoming reliable and practical within the next eighteen months. | |||
| </p><p>You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to wonder what’s going on here. If we can put a man on the moon, then why can't we just go do it again? The moon hasn’t changed since the 1960’s, while every technology we used to get there has seen staggering advances. It took NASA eight years to go from nothing to a moon landing at the dawn of the Space Age. But today, twenty years and $93 billion after the space agency announced our return to the moon, the goal seems as far out of reach as ever.<a id="fn_nasatime"></a><a class="fnote" href="#nasatime"><span class="s9"><sup>[2]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p><p>Articles about Artemis often give the program’s tangled backstory. But I want to talk about Artemis as a technical design, because there’s just so much to drink in. While NASA is no stranger to complex mission architectures, Artemis goes beyond complex to the just plain incoherent. None of the puzzle pieces seem to come from the same box. Half the program requires breakthrough technologies that make the other half unnecessary. The rocket and spacecraft NASA spent two decades building can’t even reach the moon. And for reasons no one understands, there’s a new space station in the mix. | |||
| </p><p>In the past, whatever oddball project NASA came up with, we at least knew they could build the hardware. But Artemis calls the agency’s competence as an engineering organization into question. For the first time since the early 1960's, it's unclear whether the US space agency is even <i>capable</i> of putting astronauts on the moon. | |||
| <br> | |||
| </p><p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/apollo_flight_path.jpg" alt="Photograph of SLS rocket"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="apollo">A Note on Apollo</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>In this essay I make a lot of comparisons to Project Apollo. This is not because I think other mission architectures are inferior, but because the early success of that program sets such a useful baseline. At the dawn of the Space Age, using rudimentary technology, American astronauts landed on the moon six times in seven attempts. The moon landings were NASA’s greatest achievement and should set a floor for what a modern mission, flying modern hardware, might achieve. | |||
| </p><p>Advocates for Artemis insist that the program is more than Apollo 2.0. But as we’ll see, Artemis can't even measure up to Apollo 1.0. It costs more, does less, flies less frequently, and exposes crews to risks that the steely-eyed missile men of the Apollo era found unacceptable. It's as if Ford in 2024 released a new model car that was slower, more accident-prone, and ten times more expensive than the Model T. | |||
| </p><p>When a next-generation lunar program can’t meet the cost, performance, or safety standards set three generations earlier, something has gone seriously awry. | |||
| <br> | |||
| </p><p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/sls_image.jpg" alt="Photograph of SLS rocket"></p> | |||
| <p><a name="sls"><b>I. The Rocket</b></a></p> | |||
| <p>The jewel of Artemis is a big orange rocket with a flavorless name, the Space Launch System (SLS). SLS looks like someone started building a Space Shuttle and ran out of legos for the orbiter. There is the familiar orange tank, a big white pair of solid rocket boosters, but then the rocket just peters out in a 1960’s style stack of cones and cylinders. | |||
| </p><p>The best way to think of SLS is as a balding guy with a mullet: there are fireworks down below that are meant to distract you from a sad situation up top. In the case of the rocket, those fireworks are a first stage with more thrust than the Saturn V, enough thrust that the boosted core stage can nearly put itself into orbit. But on top of this monster sits a second stage so anemic that even its name (the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage) is a kind of apology. For eight minutes SLS roars into the sky on a pillar of fire. And then, like a cork popping out of a bottle, the tiny ICPS emerges and drifts vaguely moonwards on a wisp of flame. | |||
| </p><p>With this design, the minds behind SLS achieved a first in space flight, creating a rocket that is at the same time more powerful and less capable than the Saturn V. While the 1960’s giant could send 49 metric tons to the moon, SLS only manages 27 tons—not enough to fly an Apollo-style landing, not enough to even put a crew in orbit around the moon without a lander. The best SLS can do is slingshot the Orion spacecraft once around the moon and back, a mission that will fly under the name Artemis 2. | |||
| </p><p>NASA wants to replace ICPS with an ‘Exploration Upper Stage’ (the project has been held up, among other things, by a <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IG-22-012.pdf">near-billion dollar cost overrun on a launch pad</a>). But even that upgrade won’t give SLS the power of the Saturn V. For whatever reason, NASA designed its first heavy launcher in forty years to be unable to fly the simple, proven architecture of the Apollo missions. | |||
| </p><p>Of course, plenty of rockets go on to enjoy rewarding, productive careers without being as powerful as the Saturn V. And if SLS rockets were piling up at the Michoud Assembly Facility like cordwood, or if NASA were willing to let its astronauts fly commercial, it would be a simple matter to split Artemis missions across multiple launches. | |||
| </p><p>But NASA insists that astronauts fly SLS. And SLS is a “one and done” rocket, artisanally hand-crafted by a workforce that likes to get home before traffic gets bad. The rocket can only launch once every two years at a cost of about four billion dollars<a id="fn_slscost"></a><a class="fnote" href="#slscost"><span class="s9"><sup>[3]</sup></span></a>—about twice what it would cost to light the rocket’s weight in dollar bills on fire<a id="fn_dollarbills"></a><a class="fnote" href="#dollarbills"><span class="s9"><sup>[4]</sup></span></a>. | |||
| </p><p>Early on, SLS designers made the catastrophic decision to reuse Shuttle hardware, which is like using Fabergé eggs to save money on an omelette. The SLS core stage recycles Space Shuttle main engines, actual veterans of old Shuttle flights called out of retirement for one last job. Refurbishing a single such engine to work on SLS costs NASA $40 million, or a bit more than SpaceX spends on all 33 engines on its Superheavy booster.<a id="fn_refurb"></a><a class="fnote" href="#refurb"><span class="s9"><sup>[5]</sup></span></a> And though the Shuttle engines are designed to be fully reusable (the main reason they're so expensive), every SLS launch throws four of them away. Once all the junkyards are picked clean, NASA will pay Aerojet Rocketdyne to restart production of the classic engine at a cool unit cost of $145 million<a id="fn_rs25restart"></a><a class="fnote" href="#rs25restart"><span class="s9"><sup>[6]</sup></span></a>. | |||
| </p><p>The story is no better with the solid rocket boosters, the other piece of Shuttle hardware SLS reuses. Originally a stopgap measure introduced to save the Shuttle budget, these heavy rockets now attach themselves like barnacles to every new NASA launcher design. To no one’s surprise, retrofitting a bunch of heavy steel casings left over from Shuttle days has saved the program nothing. Each SLS booster is now projected to cost $266 million, or about twice the launch cost of a Falcon Heavy.<a id="fn_fheavy"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fheavy"><span class="s9"><sup>[7]</sup></span></a> Just replacing the asbestos lining in the boosters with a greener material, a project budgeted at $4.4M, has now cost NASA a quarter of a billion dollars. And once the leftover segments run out seven rockets from now, SLS will need a brand new booster design, opening up fertile new vistas of overspending. | |||
| </p><p>Costs on SLS have reached the point where private industry is now able to develop, test, and launch an entire rocket <i>program</i> for less than NASA spends on a single engine<a id="fn_electron"></a><a class="fnote" href="#electron"><span class="s9"><sup>[8]</sup></span></a>. Flying SLS is like owning a classic car—everything is hand built, the components cost a fortune, and when you finally get the thing out of the shop, you find yourself constantly overtaken by younger rivals. | |||
| </p><p>But the cost of SLS to NASA goes beyond money. The agency has committed to an antiquated frankenrocket just as the space industry is entering a period of unprecedented innovation. While other space programs get to romp and play with technologies like reusable stages and exotic alloys, NASA is stuck for years wasting a massive, skilled workforce on a dead-end design. | |||
| </p><p>The SLS program's slow pace also affects safety. Back in the Shuttle era, NASA managers argued that it took three to four launches a year to keep workers proficient enough to build and launch the vehicles safely. A boutique approach where workers hand-craft one rocket every two years means having to re-learn processes and procedures with every launch. | |||
| </p><p>It also leaves no room in Artemis for test flights. The program simply assumes success, flying all its important 'firsts' with astronauts on board. When there are unanticipated failures, like the extensive heat shield spalling and near burn-through observed in Artemis 1,<a id="fn_heatshield"></a><a class="fnote" href="#heatshield"><span class="s9"><sup>[9]</sup></span></a> the agency has no way to test a proposed fix without a multi-year delay to the program. So they end up using indirect means to convince themselves that a new design is safe to fly, a process ripe for error and self-delusion. | |||
| </p><p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/orion_oversize.jpg" alt="Orion space capsule with OVERSIZE LOAD banner"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="Orion">II. The Capsule</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>Orion, the capsule that launches on top of SLS, is a relaxed-fit reimagining of the Apollo command module suitable for today’s larger astronaut. It boasts modern computers, half again as much volume as the 1960’s design, and a few creature comforts (like not having to poop in a baggie) that would have pleased the Apollo pioneers. | |||
| </p><p>The capsule’s official name is the Orion Multipurpose Crew Vehicle, but finding even a single purpose for Orion has greatly challenged NASA. For twenty years the spacecraft has mostly sat on the ground, chewing through a $1.2 billion annual budget. In 2014, the first Orion flew a brief test flight. Eight short years later, Orion launched again, carrying a crew of instrumented mannequins around the moon on Artemis 1. In 2025 the capsule (by then old enough to drink) is supposed to fly human passengers on Artemis 2. | |||
| </p><p>Orion goes to space attached to a basket of amenities called the European Service Module. The ESM provides Orion with solar panels, breathing gas, batteries, and a small rocket that is the capsule’s principal means of propulsion. But because the ESM was never designed to go to the moon, it carries very little propellant—far too little to get the hefty capsule in and out of lunar orbit.<a id="fn_oriondeltav"></a><a class="fnote" href="#oriondeltav"><span class="s9"><sup>[10]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p><p>And Orion is hefty. Originally designed to hold six astronauts, the capsule was never resized when the crew requirement shrank to four. Like an empty nester’s minivan, Orion now hauls around a bunch of mass and volume that it doesn’t need. Even with all the savings that come from replacing Apollo-era avionics, the capsule weighs almost twice as much as the Apollo Command Module. | |||
| </p><p>This extra mass has knock-on effects across the entire Artemis design. Since a large capsule needs a large abort rocket, SLS has to haul Orion's massive Launch Abort System—seven tons of dead weight—nearly all the way into orbit. And reinforcing the capsule so that abort system won't shake the astronauts into jelly means making it heavier, which puts more demand on the parachutes and heat shield, and around and around we go. | |||
| </p><p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/csm_orion_esm.jpg" alt="Orion space capsule with OVERSIZE LOAD banner"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Size comparison of the Apollo command and service module (left) and Orion + European Service Module (right)</p> | |||
| <p>What’s particularly frustrating is that Orion and ESM together have nearly the same mass as the Apollo command and service modules, which had no trouble reaching the moon. The difference is all in the proportions. Where Apollo was built like a roadster, with a small crew compartment bolted onto an oversized engine, Orion is the Dodge Journey of spacecraft—a chunky, underpowered six-seater that advertises to the world that you're terrible at managing money. | |||
| <br><br> | |||
| </p><p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/nrho.jpg" alt="diagram of near-rectilinear halo orbit"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="orbit">III. The Orbit</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>The fact that neither its rocket or spaceship can get to the moon creates difficulties for NASA’s lunar program. So, like an aging crooner transposing old hits into an easier key, the agency has worked to find a ‘lunar-adjacent’ destination that its hardware can get to. | |||
| </p><p>Their solution is a bit of celestial arcana called Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit, or NRHO. A spacecraft in this orbit circles the moon every 6.5 days, passing 1,000 kilometers above the lunar north pole at closest approach, then drifting out about 70,000 kilometers (a fifth of the Earth/Moon distance) at its furthest point. Getting to NRHO from Earth requires significantly less energy than entering a useful lunar orbit, putting it just within reach for SLS and Orion.<a id="fn_nrho"></a><a class="fnote" href="#nrho"><span class="s9"><sup>[11]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p><p>To hear NASA tell it, NRHO is so full of advantages that it’s a wonder we stay on Earth. Spacecraft in the orbit always have a sightline to Earth and never pass through its shadow. The orbit is relatively stable, so a spacecraft can loiter there for months using only ion thrusters. And the deep space environment is the perfect place to practice going to Mars. | |||
| </p><p>But NRHO is terrible for getting to the moon. The orbit is like one of those European budget airports that leaves you out in a field somewhere, requiring an expensive taxi. In Artemis, this taxi takes the form of a whole other spaceship—the lunar lander—which launches without a crew a month or two before Orion and is supposed to be waiting in NRHO when the capsule arrives. | |||
| </p><p>Once these two spacecraft dock together, two astronauts climb into the lander from Orion and begin a day-long descent to the lunar surface. The other two astronauts wait for them in NRHO, playing hearts and quietly absorbing radiation. | |||
| </p><p>Apollo landings also divided the crew between lander and orbiter. But those missions kept the command module in a low lunar orbit that brought it over the landing site every two hours. This proximity between orbiter and lander had enormous implications for safety. At any point in the surface mission, the astronauts on the moon could climb into the ascent rocket, hit the big red button, and be back sipping Tang with the command module pilot by bedtime. The short orbital period also gave the combined crew a dozen opportunities a day to return directly to Earth. <a id="fn_abort"></a><a class="fnote" href="#abort"><span class="s9"><sup>[12]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p><p>Sitting in NRHO makes abort scenarios much harder. Depending on when in the mission it happens, a stricken lander might need three or more days to catch up with the orbiting Orion. In the worst case, the crew might find themselves stuck on the lunar surface for hours after an abort is called, forced to wait for Orion to reach a more favorable point in its orbit. And once everyone is back on Orion, more days might pass before the crew can depart for Earth. These long and variable abort times significantly increase risk to the crew, making many scenarios that were survivable on Apollo (like Apollo 13!) lethal on Artemis. <a id="fn_abortnrho"></a><a class="fnote" href="#abortnrho"><span class="s9"><sup>[13]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p><p>The abort issue is just one example of NRHO making missions slower. NASA likes to boast that Orion can stay in space far longer than Apollo, but this is like bragging that you’re in the best shape of your life after the bank repossessed your car. It's an oddly positive spin to put on bad life choices. The reason Orion needs all that endurance is because transit times from Earth to NRHO are long, and the crew has to waste additional time in NRHO waiting for orbits to line up. The Artemis 3 mission, for example, will spend 24 days in transit, compared to just 6 days on Apollo 11. | |||
| </p><p>NRHO even dictates how long astronauts stay on the moon—surface time has to be a multiple of the 6.5 day orbital period. This lack of flexibility means that even early flag-and-footprints missions like Artemis 3 have to spend at least a week on the moon, a constraint that adds considerable risk to the initial landing. <a id="fn_landingrisk"></a><a class="fnote" href="#landingrisk"><span class="s9"><sup>[14]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p><p>In spaceflight, brevity is safety. There's no better way to protect astronauts from the risks of solar storms, mechanical failure, and other mishaps than by minimizing slack time in space. Moreover, a safe architecture should allow for a rapid return to Earth at any point in the mission. There’s no question astronauts on the first Artemis missions would be better off with Orion in low lunar orbit. The decision to stage from NRHO is an excellent example of NASA designing its lunar program in the wrong direction—letting deficiencies in the hardware dictate the level of mission risk. | |||
|  | |||
| </p><p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/gateway_diagram.jpg" alt="diagram of Gateway"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">Early diagram of Gateway. Note that the segment marked 'human lander system' now dwarfs the space station.</p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="gateway">IV. Gateway</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>I suppose at some point we have to talk about Gateway. Gateway is a small modular space station that NASA wants to build in NRHO. It has been showing up across various missions like a bad smell since before 2012. | |||
| </p><p>Early in the Artemis program, NASA described Gateway as a kind of celestial truck stop, a safe place for the lander to park and for the crew to grab a cup of coffee on their way to the moon. But when it became clear that Gateway would not be ready in time for Artemis 3, NASA re-evaluated. Reasoning that two spacecraft could meet up in NRHO just as easily as three, the agency gave permission for the first moon landing to proceed without a space station. | |||
| </p><p>Despite this open admission that Gateway is unnecessary, building the space station remains the core activity of the Artemis program. The three missions that follow that first landing are devoted chiefly to Gateway assembly. In fact, initial plans for Artemis 4 left out a lunar landing entirely, as if it were an inconvenience to the real work being done up in orbit. | |||
| </p><p>This is a remarkable situation. It’s like if you hired someone to redo your kitchen and they started building a boat in your driveway. Sure, the boat gives the builders a place to relax, lets them practice tricky plumbing and finishing work, and is a safe place to store their tools. But all those arguments will fail to satisfy. You still want to know what building a boat has to do with kitchen repair, and why you’re the one footing the bill. | |||
| </p><p>NASA has struggled to lay out a technical rationale for Gateway. The space station adds both cost and complexity to Artemis, a program not particularly lacking in either. Requiring moon-bound astronauts to stop at Gateway also makes missions riskier (by adding docking operations) while imposing a big propellant tax. Aerospace engineer and pundit Robert Zubrin has aptly called the station a tollbooth in space. | |||
| </p><p>Even Gateway defenders struggle to hype up the station. A common argument is that Gateway may not ideal for any one thing, but is good for a whole lot of things. But that is the same line of thinking that got us SLS and Orion, both vehicles designed before anyone knew what to do with them. The truth is that all-purpose designs don't exist in human space flight. The best you can do is build a spacecraft that is equally bad at everything. | |||
| </p><p>But to search for technical grounds is to misunderstand the purpose of Gateway. The station is not being built to shelter astronauts in the harsh environment of space, but to protect Artemis in the harsh environment of Congress. NASA needs Gateway to navigate an uncertain political landscape in the 2030’s. Without a station, Artemis will just be a series of infrequent multibillion dollar moon landings, a red cape waved in the face of the Office of Management and Budget. Gateway armors Artemis by bringing in international partners, each of whom contributes expensive hardware. As NASA learned building the International Space Station, this combination of sunk costs and international entanglement is a powerful talisman against program death. | |||
| </p><p>Gateway also solves some other problems for NASA. It gives SLS a destination to fly to, stimulates private industry (by handing out public money to supply Gateway), creates a job for the astronaut corps, and guarantees the continuity of human space flight once the ISS becomes uninhabitable sometime in the 2030’s. <a id="fn_iss"></a><a class="fnote" href="#iss"><span class="s9"><sup>[15]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p><p>That last goal may sound odd if you don’t see human space flight as an end in itself. But NASA is a faith-based organization, dedicated to the principle that taxpayers should always keep an American or two in orbit. it’s a little bit as if the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration insisted on keeping bathyscapes full of sailors at the bottom of the sea, irrespective of cost or merit, and kneecapped programs that might threaten the continuous human benthic presence. You can’t argue with faith. | |||
| </p><p>From a bureaucrat’s perspective, Gateway is NASA’s ticket back to a golden era in the early 2000's when the Space Station and Space Shuttle formed an uncancellable whole, each program justifying the existence of the other. Recreating this dynamic with Gateway and SLS/Orion would mean predictable budgets and program stability for NASA well into the 2050’s. | |||
| </p><p>But Artemis was supposed to take us back to a different golden age, the golden age of Apollo. And so there’s an unresolved tension in the program between building Gateway and doing interesting things on the moon. With Artemis missions two or more years apart, it’s inevitable that Gateway assembly will push aspirational projects like a surface habitat or pressurized rover out into the 2040’s. But those same projects are on the critical path to Mars, where NASA still insists we’re going in the late 2030’s. The situation is awkward. | |||
| </p><p>So that is the story of Gateway—unloved, ineradicable, and as we’ll see, likely to become the sole legacy of the Artemis program. | |||
|  | |||
| </p><p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/pointy_rocket.jpg" alt="artist's rendering of human landing system'"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="lander">V. The Lander</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>The lunar lander is the most technically ambitious part of Artemis. Where SLS, Orion, and Gateway are mostly a compilation of NASA's greatest hits, the lander requires breakthrough technologies with the potential to revolutionize space travel. | |||
| </p><p>Of course, you can’t just call it a lander. In Artemis speak, this spacecraft is the Human Landing System, or HLS. NASA has delegated its design to two private companies, Blue Origin and SpaceX. SpaceX is responsible for landing astronauts on Artemis 3 and 4, while Blue Origin is on the hook for Artemis 5 (notionally scheduled for 2030). After that, the agency will take competitive bids for subsequent missions. | |||
| </p><p>The SpaceX HLS design is based on their experimental Starship spacecraft, an enormous rocket that takes off on and lands on its tail, like 1950’s sci-fi. There is a strong “emperor’s new clothes” vibe to this design. On the one hand, it is the brainchild of brilliant SpaceX engineers and passed NASA technical review. On the other hand, the lander seems to go out of its way to create problems for itself to solve with technology. | |||
| </p><p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/hls_lem.jpg" alt="artist's rendering of human landing system'"></p> | |||
| <p class="caption">An early SpaceX rendering of the Human Landing System, with the Apollo Lunar Module added for scale.</p> | |||
| <p>To start with the obvious, HLS looks more likely to tip over than the last two spacecraft to land on the moon, which <a href="https://www.space.com/intuitive-machines-odysseus-moon-lander-tipped-over">tipped</a> <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japanese-moon-lander-reaches-surface-but-fate-uncertain/">over</a>. It is a fifteen story tower that must land on its ass in terrible lighting conditions, on rubble of unknown composition, over a light-second from Earth. The crew are left suspended so high above the surface that they need a folding space elevator (not the cool kind) to get down. And yet in the end this single-use lander carries less payload (both up and down) than the tiny Lunar Module on Apollo 17. Using Starship to land two astronauts on the moon is like delivering a pizza with an aircraft carrier. | |||
| </p><p>Amusingly, the sheer size of the SpaceX design leaves it with little room for cargo. The spacecraft arrives on the Moon laden with something like 200 tons of cryogenic propellant,<a id="fn_hlsprop"></a><a class="fnote" href="#hlsprop"><span class="s9"><sup>[16]</sup></span></a> and like a fat man leaving an armchair, it needs every drop of that energy to get its bulk back off the surface. Nor does it help matters that all this cryogenic propellant has to cook for a week in direct sunlight. | |||
| </p><p>Other, less daring lander designs reduce their appetite for propellant by using a detachable landing stage. This arrangement also shields the ascent rocket from hypervelocity debris that gets kicked up during landing. But HLS is a one-piece rocket; the same engines that get sandblasted on their way down to the moon must relight without fail a week later. | |||
| </p><p>Given this fact, it’s remarkable that NASA’s contract with SpaceX doesn’t require them to demonstrate a lunar takeoff. All SpaceX has to do to satisfy NASA requirements is land an HLS prototype on the Moon. Questions about ascent can then presumably wait until the actual mission, when we all find out together with the crew whether HLS can take off again.<a id="fn_ascent"></a><a class="fnote" href="#ascent"><span class="s9"><sup>[17]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p><p>This fearlessness in design is part of a pattern with Starship HLS. Problems that other landers avoid in the design phase are solved with engineering. And it’s kind of understandable why SpaceX does it this way. Starship is meant to fly to Mars, a much bigger challenge than landing two people on the moon. If the basic Starship design can’t handle a lunar landing, it would throw the company’s whole Mars plan into question. SpaceX is committed to making Starship work, which is different from making the best possible lunar lander. | |||
| </p><p>Less obvious is why NASA tolerates all this complexity in the most hazardous phase of its first moon mission. Why land a rocket the size of a building packed with moving parts? It’s hard to look at the HLS design and not think back to other times when a room full of smart NASA people talked themselves into taking major risks because the alternative was not getting to fly at all. | |||
| </p><p>It’s instructive to compare the HLS approach to the design philosophy on Apollo. Engineers on that progam were motivated by terror; no one wanted to make the mistake that would leave astronauts stranded on the moon. The weapon they used to knock down risk was simplicity. The Lunar Module was a small metal box with a wide stance, built low enough so that the astronauts only needed to climb down a short ladder. The bottom half of the LM was a descent stage that completely covered the ascent rocket (a design that showed its value on Apollo 15, when one of the descent engines got <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Descent_propulsion_system#/media/File:Apollo_15_Engine_Bell.jpg">smushed by a rock</a>). And that ascent rocket, the most important piece of hardware in the lander, was a caveman design intentionally made so primitive that it would struggle to find ways to fail. | |||
| </p><p>On Artemis, it's the other way around: the more hazardous the mission phase, the more complex the hardware. It's hard to look at all this lunar machinery and feel reassured, especially when NASA's own Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel estimates that the Orion/SLS portion of a moon mission alone (not including anything to do with HLS) already <a href="https://oiir.hq.nasa.gov/asap/documents/2014_ASAP_Annual_Report.pdf">has a 1:75 chance</a> of killing the crew. | |||
| </p><p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/fuel_fight.jpg" alt="artist's rendering of human landing system'"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="refueling">VI. Refueling</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>Since NASA’s biggest rocket struggles to get Orion into distant lunar orbit, and HLS weighs fifty times as much as Orion, the curious reader might wonder how the unmanned lander is supposed to get up there. | |||
| </p><p>NASA’s answer is, very sensibly, “not our problem”. They are paying Blue Origin and SpaceX the big bucks to figure this out on their own. And as a practical matter, the only way to put such a massive spacecraft into NRHO is to first refuel it in low Earth orbit. | |||
| </p><p>Like a lot of space technology, orbital refueling sounds simple, has never been attempted, and can’t be adequately simulated on Earth.<a id="fn_refuel"></a><a class="fnote" href="#refuel"><span class="s9"><sup>[18]</sup></span></a> The crux of the problem is that liquid and gas phases in microgravity jumble up into a three-dimensional mess, so that even measuring the quantity of propellant in a tank becomes difficult. To make matters harder, Starship uses cryogenic propellants that boil at temperatures about a hundred degrees colder than the plumbing they need to move through. Imagine trying to pour water from a thermos into a red-hot skillet while falling off a cliff and you get some idea of the difficulties. | |||
| </p><p>To get refueling working, SpaceX will first have to demonstrate propellant transfer between rockets as a proof of concept, and then get the process working reliably and efficiently at a scale of hundreds of tons. (These are two distinct challenges). Once they can routinely move liquid oxygen and methane from Starship A to Starship B, they’ll be ready to set up the infrastructure they need to launch HLS. | |||
| </p><p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/fueling_conops.jpg" alt="artist's rendering of human landing system'"></p> | |||
| <p>The plan for getting HLS to the moon looks like this: a few months before the landing date, SpaceX will launch a special variant of their Starship rocket configured to serve as a propellant depot. Then they'll start launching Starships one by one to fill it up. Each Starship arrives in low Earth orbit with some residual propellant; it will need to dock with the depot rocket and transfer over this remnant fuel. Once the depot is full, SpaceX will launch HLS, have it fill its tanks at the depot rocket, and send it up to NRHO in advance of Orion. When Orion arrives, HLS will hopefully have enough propellant left on board to take on astronauts and make a single round trip from NRHO to the lunar surface. | |||
| </p><p>Getting this plan to work requires solving a second engineering problem, how to keep cryogenic propellants cold in space. Low earth orbit is a toasty place, and without special measures, the cryogenic propellants Starship uses will quickly vent off into space. The problem is easy to solve in deep space (use a sunshade), but becomes tricky in low Earth orbit, where a warm rock covers a third of the sky. (Boil-off is also a big issue for HLS on the moon.) | |||
| </p><p> It’s not clear how many Starship launches it will take to refuel HLS. Elon Musk has said four might be enough; NASA Assistant Deputy Associate Administrator Lakiesha Hawkins says the number is in the “high teens”. Last week, SpaceX's Kathy Lueders <a href="https://youtu.be/vOg49BVhU40?si=6q8R2qvkmEDPGy0V&t=2381">gave a figure of fifteen launches</a>. | |||
| </p><p>The real number is unknown and will come down to four factors: | |||
| </p><ol> | |||
| <li>How much propellant a Starship can carry to low Earth orbit.</li> | |||
| <li>What fraction of that can be usably pumped out of the rocket. </li> | |||
| <li>How quickly cryogenic propellant boils away from the orbiting depot.</li> | |||
| <li>How rapidly SpaceX can launch Starships.</li> | |||
| </ol> | |||
| <p>SpaceX probably knows the answer to (1), but isn’t talking. Data for (2) and (3) will have to wait for flight tests that are planned for 2025. And obviously a lot is riding on (4), also called launch cadence. | |||
| </p><p>The record for heavy rocket launch cadence belongs to the Space Shuttle, which flew nine times in the calendar year before the Challenger disaster. Second place belongs to the Saturn V, which launched three times during a four and a half month period in 1969. In third place is Falcon Heavy, which flew six times in a 13 month period beginning in November 2022. | |||
| </p><p>For the refueling plan to work, Starship will have to break this record by a factor of ten, launching every six days or so across multiple launch facilities. <a id="fn_cadence"></a><a class="fnote" href="#cadence"><span class="s9"><sup>[19]</sup></span></a> The refueling program can tolerate a few launch failures, as long as none of them damages a launch pad. | |||
| </p><p>There’s no company better prepared to meet this challenge than SpaceX. Their Falcon 9 rocket has shattered records for both reliability and cadence, and now launches about once every three days. But it took SpaceX ten years to get from the first orbital Falcon 9 flight to a weekly cadence, and Starship is vastly bigger and more complicated than the Falcon 9. <a id="fn_falcon9"></a><a class="fnote" href="#falcon9"><span class="s9"><sup>[20]</sup></span></a> | |||
| </p><p>Working backwards from the official schedule allows us to appreciate the time pressure facing SpaceX. To make the official Artemis landing date, SpaceX has to land an unmanned HLS prototype on the moon in early 2026. That means tanker flights to fill an orbiting depot would start in late 2025. This doesn’t leave a lot of time for the company to invent orbital refueling, get it working at scale, make it efficient, deal with boil-off, get Starship launching reliably, begin recovering booster stages,<a id="fn_recovery"></a><a class="fnote" href="#recovery"><span class="s9"><sup>[21]</sup></span></a> set up additional launch facilities, achieve a weekly cadence, and at the same time design and test all the other systems that need to go into HLS. | |||
| </p><p>Lest anyone think I’m picking on SpaceX, the development schedule for Blue Origin’s 2029 lander is even more fantastical. That design requires pumping tons of liquid hydrogen between spacecraft in lunar orbit, a challenge perhaps an order of magnitude harder than what SpaceX is attempting. Liquid hydrogen is bulky, boils near absolute zero, and is infamous for its ability to leak through anything (the Shuttle program couldn't get a handle on hydrogen leaks on Earth even after a hundred some launches). And the rocket Blue Origin needs to test all this technology has never left the ground. | |||
| </p><p>The upshot is that NASA has put a pair of last-minute long-shot technology development programs between itself and the moon. Particularly striking is the contrast between the ambition of the HLS designs and the extreme conservatism and glacial pace of SLS/Orion. The same organization that spent 23 years and 20 billion dollars building the world's most vanilla spacecraft demands that SpaceX darken the sky with Starships within four years of signing the initial HLS contract. While thrilling for SpaceX fans, this is pretty unserious behavior from the nation’s space agency, which had several decades' warning that going to the moon would require a lander. | |||
| </p><p>All this to say, it's universally understood that there won’t be a moon landing in 2026. At some point NASA will have to officially slip the schedule, as it did in 2021, 2023, and at the start of this year. If this accelerating pattern of delays continues, by year’s end we might reach a state of continuous postponement, a kind of scheduling singularity where the landing date for Artemis 3 recedes smoothly and continuously into the future. | |||
| </p><p>Otherwise, it's hard to imagine a manned lunar landing before 2030, if the Artemis program survives that long. | |||
| </p><p><img src="https://idlewords.com/images/artemis_cart.jpg" alt="Interior of Skylab"></p> | |||
| <p><b><a name="conclusion">VII. Conclusion</a></b></p> | |||
| <p>I want to stress that there’s nothing wrong with NASA making big bets on technology. Quite the contrary, the audacious HLS contracts may be the healthiest thing about Artemis. Visionaries at NASA identified a futuristic new energy source (space billionaire egos) and found a way to tap it on a fixed-cost basis. If SpaceX or Blue Origin figure out how to make cryogenic refueling practical, it will mean a big step forward for space exploration, exactly the thing NASA should be encouraging. And if the technology doesn’t pan out, we’ll have found that out mostly by spending Musk’s and Bezos’s money. | |||
| </p><p>The real problem with Artemis is that it doesn’t think through the consequences of its own success. A working infrastructure for orbital refueling would make SLS and Orion superfluous. Instead of waiting two years to go up on a $4 billion rocket, crews and cargo could launch every weekend on cheap commercial rockets, refueling in low Earth orbit on their way to the moon. A similar logic holds for Gateway. Why assemble a space station out of habitrail pieces out in lunar orbit, like an animal, when you can build one on Earth and launch it in one piece? Better yet, just spraypaint “<b>GATEWAY</b>” on the side of the nearest Starship, send it out to NRHO, and save NASA and its international partners billions. Having a working gas station in low Earth orbit fundamentally changes what is possible, in a way the SLS/Orion arm of Artemis doesn't seem to recognize. | |||
| </p><p>Conversely, if SpaceX and Blue Origin can’t make cryogenic refueling work, then NASA has no plan B for landing on the moon. All the Artemis program will be able to do is assemble Gateway. Promising taxpayers the moon only to deliver ISS Jr. does not broadcast a message of national greatness, and is unlikely to get Congress excited about going to Mars. The hurtful comparisons between American dynamism in the 1960’s and whatever it is we have now will practically write themselves. | |||
| </p><p>What NASA is doing is like an office worker blowing half their salary on lottery tickets while putting the other half in a pension fund. If the lottery money comes through, then there was really no need for the pension fund. But without the lottery win, there’s not enough money in the pension account to retire on. The two strategies don't make sense together. | |||
| </p><p>There’s a ‘realist’ school of space flight that concedes all this but asks us to look at the bigger picture. We’re never going to have the perfect space program, the argument goes, but the important thing is forward progress. And Artemis is the first program in years to survive a presidential transition and have a shot at getting us beyond low Earth orbit. With Artemis still funded, and Starship making rapid progress, at some point we’ll finally see American astronauts back on the moon. | |||
| </p><p>But this argument has two flaws. The first is that it feeds a cycle of dysfunction at NASA that is rapidly making it impossible for us to go anywhere. Holding human space flight to a different standard than NASA’s science missions has been a disaster for space exploration. Right now the Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate (the entity responsible for manned space flight) couldn’t build a toaster for less than a billion dollars. Incompetence, self-dealing, and mismanagement that end careers on the science side of NASA are not just tolerated but rewarded on the human space flight side. Before we let the agency build out its third white elephant project in forty years, it’s worth reflecting on what we're getting in return for half our exploration budget. | |||
| </p><p>The second, more serious flaw in the “realist” approach is that it enables a culture of institutional mendacity that must ultimately be fatal at an engineering organization. We've reached a point where NASA lies constantly, to both itself and to the public. It lies about schedules and capabilities. It lies about the costs and the benefits of its human spaceflight program. And above all, it lies about risk. All the institutional pathologies identified in the Rogers Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board are alive and well in Artemis—groupthink, management bloat, intense pressure to meet impossible deadlines, and a willingness to manufacture engineering rationales to justify flying unsafe hardware. | |||
| </p><p>Do we really have to wait for another tragedy, and another beautifully produced Presidential Commission report, to see that Artemis is broken? | |||
| <br><br> | |||
| </p><p><b><a name="notes">Notes</a></b></p> | |||
| <p><a id="cost"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_cost">[1]</a> Without NASA's help, it's hard to put a dollar figure on a mission without making somewhat arbitrary decisions about what to include and exclude. The $7-10 billion estimate comes from a Bush-era official in the Office of Management and Budget commenting <a href="https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60228.msg2559545#msg2559545">on the NASA Spaceflight Forum</a> | |||
| </p><blockquote> | |||
| And that $7.2B assumes Artemis III stays on schedule. Based on the FY24 budget request, each additional year between Artemis II and Artemis III adds another $3.5B to $4.0B in Common Exploration to Artemis III. If Artemis III goes off in 2027, then it will be $10.8B total. If 2028, then $14.3B. | |||
| </blockquote> | |||
| <p>In other words, it's hard to break out an actual cost while the launch dates for both Artemis II and III keep slipping. | |||
| </p><p>NASA's own Inspector General estimates the cost of <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IG-22-003.pdf">just the SLS/Orion portion</a> of a moon landing at $4.1 billion. | |||
| </p><p><a id="nasatime"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_nasatime">[2]</a> The first US suborbital flight, Friendship 7, launched on May 15, 1961. Armstrong and Aldrin landed on the moon eight years and two months later, on July 21, 1969. President Bush announced the goal of returning to the moon in a January 2004 speech, setting the target date for the first landing "as early as 2015", and no later than 2020. | |||
| </p><p><a id="slscost"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_slscost">[3]</a> NASA refuses to track the per-launch cost of SLS, so it's easy to get into nerdfights. Since the main cost driver on SLS is the gigantic workforce employed on the project, something like two or three times the headcount of SpaceX, the cost per launch depends a lot on cadence. If you assume a yearly launch rate (the official line), then the rocket costs $2.1 billion a launch. If like me you think one launch every two years is optimistic, the cost climbs up into the $4-5 billion range. | |||
| </p><p><a id="dollarbills"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_dollarbills">[4]</a> The SLS weighs 2,600 metric tons fully fueled, and conveniently enough a dollar bill weighs about 1 gram. | |||
| </p><p><a id="refurb"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_refurb">[5]</a> SpaceX does not disclose the cost, but it's widely assumed the Raptor engine used on Superheavy costs $1 million. | |||
| </p><p><a id="rs25restart"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_rs25restart">[6]</a> The $145 million figure comes from <a href="https://spacenews.com/aerojet-rocketdyne-defends-sls-engine-contract-costs/">dividing the contract cost by the number of engines</a>, caveman style. Others have reached a figure of $100 million for the unit cost of these engines. The important point is not who is right but the fact that NASA is paying vastly more than anyone else for engines of this class. | |||
| </p><p><a id="fheavy"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_fheavy">[7]</a> $250M is the figure you get by dividing the $3.2 billion Booster Production and Operations contract to Northrop Grumman by the number of boosters (12) in the contract. Source: <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IG-23-015.pdf">Office of the Inspector General</a>. For cost overruns replacing asbestos, see the OIG report on <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IG-23-015.pdf">NASA’s Management of the Space Launch | |||
| System Booster and Engine Contracts</a>. The Department of Defense paid <a href>$130 million</a> for a Falcon Heavy launch in 2023. | |||
| </p><p><a id="electron"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_electron">[8]</a> Rocket Lab developed, tested, and flew its Electron rocket for a total program cost of <a href="https://twitter.com/Peter_J_Beck/status/1302692025297379328">$100 million</a>. | |||
| </p><p><a id="heatshield"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_heatshield">[9]</a> In particular, the separation bolts embedded in the Orion heat shield were built based on a flawed thermal model, and need to be redesigned to safely fly a crew. From <a href="https://oig.nasa.gov/office-of-inspector-general-oig/audit-reports/nasas-readiness-for-the-artemis-ii-crewed-mission-to-lunar-orbit/">the OIG report</a>: | |||
| </p><blockquote> | |||
| Separation bolt melt beyond the thermal barrier during reentry can expose the vehicle to hot gas ingestion behind the heat shield, exceeding Orion’s structural limits and resulting in the breakup of the vehicle and loss of crew. Post-flight inspections determined there was a discrepancy in the thermal model used to predict the bolts’ performance pre-flight. Current predictions using the correct information suggest the bolt melt exceeds the design capability of Orion. | |||
| </blockquote> | |||
| <p>The current plan is to work around these problems on Artemis 2, and then redesign the components for Artemis 3. That means astronauts have to fly at least twice with an untested heat shield design. | |||
| </p><p><a id="oriondeltav"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_oriondeltav">[10]</a> | |||
| Orion/ESM has a delta V budget of 1340 m/s. Getting into and out of an equatorial low lunar orbit takes about 1800 m/s, more for a polar orbit. (See <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/nrho-artemis-orbit.pdf">source</a>.) | |||
| </p><p><a id="nrho"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_nrho">[11]</a> | |||
| It takes about 900 m/s of total delta V to get in and out of NHRO, comfortably within Orion/ESM's 1340 m/s budget. (See <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/nrho-artemis-orbit.pdf">source</a>.) | |||
| </p><p><a id="abort"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_abort">[12]</a> | |||
| In <i>Carrying the Fire</i>, Apollo 11 astronaut Michael Collins recalls carrying a small notebook covering 18 lunar rendezvous scenarios he might be called on to fly in various contingencies. If the Lunar Module could get itself off the surface, there was probably a way to dock with it. | |||
| </p><p>For those too young to remember, Tang is a powdered orange drink <a href="https://www.foodandwine.com/lifestyle/how-nasa-made-tang-cool">closely associated</a> with the American space program. | |||
| </p><p><a id="abortnrho"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_abortnrho">[13]</a> For a detailed (if somewhat cryptic) discussion of possible Artemis abort modes to NRHO, see <a href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20230002566/downloads/HLS%20NRHO%20to%20Lunar%20Surface%20and%20Back%20Mission%20Design_STRIVES.pptx.pdf">HLS NRHO to Lunar Surface and | |||
| Back Mission Design</a>, NASA 2022. | |||
| </p><p><a id="landingrisk"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_landingrisk">[14]</a> | |||
| The main safety issue is the difficult thermal environment at the landing site, where the Sun sits just above the horizon, heating half the lander. If it weren't for the NRHO constraint, it's very unlikely Artemis 3 would spend more than a day or two on the lunar surface. | |||
| </p><p><a id="iss"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_iss">[15]</a> | |||
| The ISS program has been repeatedly extended, but the station is coming up against physical limiting factors (like metal fatigue) that will soon make it too dangerous to use. | |||
| </p><p><a id="hlsprop"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_hlsprop">[16]</a> This is my own speculative guess; the answer is very sensitive to the dry weight of HLS and the boil-off rate of its cryogenic propellants. Delta V from the lunar surface to NRHO is 2,610 m/sec. Assuming HLS weighs 120 tons unfueled, it would need about 150 metric tons of propellant to get into NRHO from the lunar surface. Adding safety margin, fuel for docking operations, and allowing for a week of boiloff gets me to about 200 tons. | |||
| </p><p><a id="ascent"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_ascent">[17]</a> | |||
| Recent comments by NASA suggest SpaceX has <a href="https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1783877352432263175">voluntarily added an ascent phase</a> to its landing demo, ending a pretty untenable situation. However, there's still no requirement that the unmanned landing/ascent demo be performed using the same lander design that will fly on the actual mission, another oddity in the HLS contract. | |||
| </p><p><a id="refuel"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_refuel">[18]</a> | |||
| To be precise, I'm talking about moving bulk propellant between rockets in orbit. There are resupply flights to the International Space Station that deliver about 850 kilograms of non-cryogenic propellant to boost the station in its orbit, and there have been small-scale experiments in refueling satellites. But no one has attempted refueling a flown rocket stage in space, cryogenic or otherwise. | |||
| </p><p><a id="cadence"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_cadence">[19]</a> | |||
| Both SpaceX's <a href="https://youtu.be/vOg49BVhU40?si=6q8R2qvkmEDPGy0V&t=2381">Kathy Lueders</a> and NASA confirm Starship needs to launch from multiple sites. Here's an excerpt from <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/heoc-november-2023-final-v2.pdf">the minutes</a> of the NASA Advisory Council Human Exploration and Operations Committee meeting on November 17 and 20, 2023: | |||
| </p><blockquote> | |||
| Mr. [Wayne] Hale asked where Artemis III will launch from. [Assistant Deputy AA for Moon to Mars Lakiesha] Hawkins said that launch pads will be used in Florida and potentially Texas. The missions will need quite a number of tankers; in order to meet the schedule, there will need to be a rapid succession of launches of fuel, requiring more than one site for launches on a 6-day rotation schedule, and multiples of launches. | |||
| </blockquote> | |||
| <p><a id="falcon9"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_falcon9">[20]</a> Falcon 9 first flew in June of 2010 and achieved a weekly launch cadence over a span of six launches starting in November 2020. | |||
| </p><p><a id="recovery"></a><a class="fnote" href="#fn_recovery">[21]</a> Recovering Superheavy stages is not a NASA requirement for HLS, but it's a huge cost driver for SpaceX given the number of launches involved. | |||
| </p> | |||
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| <h1>A Woman Who Left Society to Live With Bears Weighs in on “Man or Bear”</h1> | |||
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| <p>The “Man or Bear” debate recently went viral online, with women sharing their thoughts on whether they’d rather be stuck in the forest with a man or a bear. In this piece, long-term bicycle traveler Laura Killingbeck reflects on the question and adds her unique perspective to the conversation.</p> | |||
| <p>When I was 23, I packed up my bike and camping gear and caught a one-way flight to Alaska. My relationship with mankind no longer felt tenable. I didn’t want to be female in society; I wanted to be free. I spent the next three and a half months pedaling down North America’s grizzly-filled coast from Anchorage to San Francisco. Out there in that rugged expanse, with my body in motion and my heart unfurled, I found boundless joy. And that joy did make me a little more free. </p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-2000x1334.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="2000" height="1334" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-176872" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px" /></a></p> | |||
| <p>It wasn’t the first time I’d left on that kind of journey, nor would it be the last. <a href="https://www.laurasstories.live/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">I’ve spent most of my life</a> traveling open roads, seeking solace in nature, looking for the edges of myself and the world. When I was 18, I packed a bag and thumbed my way across Mexico. At 20, I pedaled alone around Iceland. I’ve now biked and hiked thousands of miles across the Americas, often solo. These trips have shaped and defined me. </p> | |||
| <p>When I’m out in nature, I become a body on nature’s terms, free from social context. This freedom also feels like security: I return home to my deepest self. </p> | |||
| <p>I’ve always loved men. I’ve always found it easy to get along with men, to travel with men, to befriend men. Many of the people I cherish most in this world are male. </p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176873" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2.jpg 1776w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></p> | |||
| <p>I’ve also spent most of my life trying to extract myself from patriarchy. I’ve had to learn how to say no to men, to protect myself from men, and get away from men in ways that have been crucial to my survival. I’ve had to learn how to trust my intuition, value my feelings, and claim my agency in ways that have defied “ladylike” behavior. I’ve done this through trial and error, dedicated study, and deep, often painful excavations of my own interior. I’ve gone to nature again and again to study what it feels like to be fully human.</p> | |||
| <p>One of my favorite writers, <a href="https://prentishemphill.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Prentis Hemphill</a>, wrote, “Boundaries are the distance at which I can love you and me simultaneously.” To love myself in patriarchy, I’ve often had to put a lot of distance between myself and men. </p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176875" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4.jpg 1823w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></p> | |||
| <p>There is nothing wrong with men. Men are lovable people with the same capacity for empathy, agency, and growth as any other human on the gender spectrum. But when men are socialized to identify their humanness as masculinity and to associate masculinity with power, we get some real problems. These are the problems of patriarchy. </p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://www.faculty.umb.edu/heike.schotten/readings/Johnson,%20Patriarchy%20the%20System.pdf" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Patriarchy is often defined</a> as a social system that is male-identified, male-dominated, and male-centered. It depends on a heteronormative gender binary that serves to <a href="https://voicemalemagazine.org/healthy-masculinity-is-oxymoronic/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">divide and outsource human traits to different halves of the population</a>.</p> | |||
| <p>In patriarchal societies, human traits associated with power and control are outsourced to men: domination, assertiveness, independence, decisiveness, and ambition are called masculine, and men are expected to conform to masculine traits. </p> | |||
| <ul class="thumblist-2col"> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176887" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176883" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p>Human traits associated with care and relationality are outsourced to women: empathy, nurturing, adaptation, and cooperation are called feminine, and women are expected to conform to feminine traits.</p> | |||
| <p>Sexism as an ideology is based on the belief that this division of traits is immutable and biologically mandated; therefore, it’s only “natural” that men inhabit positions of power while women serve caregiving roles. This is coupled with the belief that masculine traits are superior and more valuable, and feminine traits are inferior and less valuable. </p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176877" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6.jpg 1776w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://www.acalltomen.org/healthy-manhood/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Symptoms of patriarchy</a> include gender-based violence, sexual harassment, toxic relationality, oppressive divisions of labor, gender-based pay gaps, and a nearly infinite list of large and small ways that power is continuously diverted to men, and men are socialized to identify with power and control over care and relationality. These symptoms have the most impact on women of color, Indigenous women, poor women, and people who inhabit multiple intersections of oppressed demographics. </p> | |||
| <p>Symptoms of patriarchy also include social patterns that are harmful to men, including male violence against other men, a higher risk of suicide, reduced quality of relationships, and a lower life expectancy. In a blog post for <a href="https://www.nextgenmen.ca/about" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Next Gen Men</a>, writer Veronika Ilich <a href="https://www.nextgenmen.ca/blog/why-patriarchy-hurts-men-too" rel="noopener" target="_blank">describes patriarchy</a> as “one of the single largest threats to men’s mental and physical health.”</p> | |||
| <p>Patriarchy has everything to do with men, <a href="https://www.nextgenmen.ca/blog/ending-gender-wars-dismantling-patriarchy-anti-male" rel="noopener" target="_blank">but at the same time, nothing at all</a>. In a male-centered society where maleness is associated with power, what’s really being centered is power itself. What’s suppressed is mutual relationality. Patriarchy is intertwined with colonialism, racism, and other oppressive social structures based on hierarchy. It is a fundamental fracturing of our human wholeness.</p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176874" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3.jpg 1776w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></p> | |||
| <p>Last year, I spent over <a href="https://www.laurasstories.live/all-blog-posts/gear-list-for-enigmas-odyssey-an-eight-month-bike-ride-across-the-us" rel="noopener" target="_blank">eight months on my bike</a>. I pedaled down the Pacific Coast, across the Southwest, and up the length of the Great Divide. I cooked food on my tiny twig stove and camped each night under the stars. I don’t know if I’ve ever been so happy. </p> | |||
| <p>One day in Colorado, I stopped at a thrift store. When I passed the jewelry section, a necklace caught my eye. It was a rose quartz heart on a silver chain. I picked it up. </p> | |||
| <ul class="thumblist-2col"> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176886" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176888" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p>Sometimes, people ask if I’m running from something–if all these miles are a retreat from the world. But when I saw the necklace, I saw the journey that I’ve been on. Nature has taught me to keep an open heart. I love this world, and I’ll do whatever it takes to be fully here. The reclamation of human wholeness is part of our shared legacy. We all belong to this conversation. </p> | |||
| <p>I have worn that heart necklace ever since, like a talisman.</p> | |||
| <h2>Man or Bear</h2> | |||
| <p>I don’t spend a huge amount of time surfing the web. But recently, so many people posted bear memes that even I got sucked into “Man or Bear,” a rowdy internet debate that seems to have spawned from <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@screenshothq/video/7356208240008498465?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc" rel="noopener" target="_blank">this viral Tik Tok video</a>. In the video, a man asks eight women if they’d rather be stuck in a forest with a man or a bear. Seven out of eight women said they’d prefer the bear. </p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-2000x1334.jpg" alt="2023 Tour Divide, Eddie Clark" width="2000" height="1334" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-151758" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px" /></a></p> | |||
| <div class="caption">Photo by <a href="https://www.instagram.com/eddieclarkmedia/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Eddie Clark</a> from our <a href="/plog/2023-tour-divide-part-3/">2023 Tour Divide</a> coverage</div> | |||
| <p>This led to a long stream of commentary from women describing their fear of men and male violence. In turn, this commentary was met with a backlash from men expressing anger and deriding women’s responses. An <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/us/man-bear-safety-tiktok-question-cec/index.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">article published by CNN</a> gives a recap of the fray. </p> | |||
| <p>The original video now has over 18 million views and over 75,000 comments. It’s led to countless replica videos, social media posts, and memes. And it’s opened up a larger conversation about gender-based violence and what it means to feel safe in the world.</p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-2000x1333.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="2000" height="1333" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-176881" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-2000x1333.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px" /></a></p> | |||
| <p>I first read about this debate on my phone while camping in a field in my tent. It captivated me in a way that internet debates rarely do. Slowly, I realized why: for me, “Man or Bear” is not hypothetical. I’m literally a woman who left mankind behind to live in nature with bears. This is my actual life. </p> | |||
| <p>I’ve been writing about this choice for years in stories like “<a href="https://www.adventurecycling.org/blog/a-wild-female-human-creature/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">A Wild Female Human Creature</a>,” “<a href="https://www.adventurecycling.org/blog/biking-to-bears/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Biking to Bears</a>,” and “<a href="https://www.adventurecycling.org/blog/when-men-take-off-their-pants/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">When Men Take off Their Pants</a>.” I also wrote about it recently for <em>Bicycling</em> in my story “Into the Wind.” These stories often include anecdotes about the kindness of men and my relationships with men. They’re stories about human complexity. </p> | |||
| <h2>The Elephant in the Room is Not a Bear</h2> | |||
| <p>One of the ironies of going to nature to free myself from mankind is that I do actually meet a lot of men out here. I’ve also met a lot of bears, but not nearly as many bears as men. </p> | |||
| <p>It’s still relatively uncommon for women to travel alone in the backcountry. Last year on the Great Divide, I met lots of solo men, men in pairs, and a few women traveling with men, but only a couple of solo women. I’ve noticed similar gender demographics on most of my long-distance cycling and hiking trips in the backcountry. </p> | |||
| <ul class="thumblist-2col"> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176884" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176890" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p>The central reason why fewer women travel alone is our fear of male violence and sexual assault. Actually, the most common question I get about my travels is some version of, “<a href="https://www.adventurecycling.org/blog/arent-you-afraid-to-bike-alone/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Aren’t you afraid to bike/hike/travel alone as a woman?</a>” By naming my gender, the implication is clear. What people really mean is, “Aren’t you afraid of men?”</p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176878" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7.jpg 1776w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></p> | |||
| <p>This leads us straight back to the original conversation about “Man or Bear,” which has nothing to do with bears. (Sorry, bears!) “Would you rather be stuck in a forest with a man or a bear?” is just another way of asking, “Are you afraid of men?” It’s the same question I’ve been fielding for the entirety of my life as a solo female traveler. It’s the same question that hovers over women all the time as we move through the world. </p> | |||
| <p>And it’s a question that’s always been difficult for me to answer. I’m not afraid of all men. But I am afraid of some men. The real problem is the gray area in between and what it takes to manage the murkiness of that unknown. </p> | |||
| <h2>Stuck in the Forest With a Man</h2> | |||
| <p>When I’m alone in the backcountry and come across a man, I feel a very low level of vigilance. Depending on the situation, I might even be happy to see him. He’s a fellow human! Maybe we’ll be friends! I’m likely to smile genuinely and say hello. </p> | |||
| <p>I don’t feel afraid, but I am aware. As we chat, my intuition absorbs a thousand things at once. His body language. His tone. How he looks at me and interacts. Most of the time, this produces an increased sense of security. Most men are friendly, respect my boundaries, and don’t want to hurt me. Most of the time, I feel very safe around men. </p> | |||
| <p>But not all the time. Sometimes, my intuition absorbs things that increase my level of vigilance. My awareness shifts into closer observation, and I look for signs of danger. Nothing is wrong, but it could go wrong very quickly.</p> | |||
| <ul class="thumblist-2col"> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176882" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11.jpg 1776w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176885" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p>It could be something he says. Maybe he makes a comment about my body or my appearance. Or he asks if I’m carrying a weapon and then presses for details about where I’m camping that night. Sometimes, it’s a shift in his tone, a leer, the way he puts his body in my space. But, usually, it’s a combination of things, a totality of behaviors that add up to a singular reality: this man is either not aware that he’s making me uncomfortable, or he doesn’t care. Either way, this is the danger zone. Even if he has no intention of harming me, the outcome of that intention is no longer possible for me to assess or predict. </p> | |||
| <p>In this moment, my mind snaps into a single, crystalline point of focus. My intuition rises to the surface of my skin. I become a creature of exquisite perception. The world is a matrix of emotional data: visceral, clear, direct. </p> | |||
| <p>I need to get away from the man. But I need to do it in a way that doesn’t anger him. This is the tricky bit. Men who lack social awareness or empathy often also lack other skills in emotional management. And usually, what men in these situations actually want is closeness. They’re trying to get <em>closer</em> to me, physically or emotionally, in the only way they know how. That combination of poor emotional skillsets and a desire to get closer is exactly what puts me in danger. </p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176879" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8.jpg 1708w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></p> | |||
| <p>If I deny his attempts at closeness by leaving or setting a boundary, he could feel frustrated, rejected, or ashamed. If he doesn’t know how to recognize or manage those feelings, he’s likely to experience them as anger. And then I’m a solo woman stuck in a forest with an angry man, which is exactly what women are most afraid of. </p> | |||
| <p>There’s no time to think, so I operate on instinct. My task is ridiculously complex. I need to deescalate any signs of aggression, guide the man into a state of emotional balance, and exit the situation safely, all at once. This process requires all of my attention, energy, and intellect. It’s really hard. </p> | |||
| <p>I’ve been in this position so many times that it exhausts me just to write about it. Sometimes, it’s not that I’m afraid of men; I’m just really, really tired. </p> | |||
| <h2>Stuck in the World With Patriarchy</h2> | |||
| <p>In patriarchal societies where masculinity is coded as power and control, men often try to get closer to women through power and control. The range of how this plays out is vast. It could be inconsequential, or it could end a woman’s life. This is why seemingly small comments, gestures, or implications often trigger full-body vigilance. It may also be a reason why so many women in the “Man or Bear” debate chose the bear. </p> | |||
| <p>If men truly disliked women, they’d be glad so many women chose the bear! Women who chose the bear would be (hypothetically) farther away from them. </p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-2000x1334.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="2000" height="1334" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-176880" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px" /></a></p> | |||
| <p>But lots of men were not glad; they were angry. And beneath that anger were probably lots of other feelings as well, the ones that patriarchy socializes men to mask: hurt, loss, frustration, sadness, loneliness. It’s sad when someone you want to be close to does not want to be close to you. It’s frustrating when you don’t know how to get that closeness. And it’s lonely. The angry men in this debate are very lonely men. </p> | |||
| <h2>A Return to Wholeness</h2> | |||
| <p>I believe that at the heart of this conversation–at the heart of most conversations–is a mutual quest for connection and wholeness. In all these years of wandering, this is what I have learned. </p> | |||
| <p>Sometimes, it’s hard to know where to end a story. But nature has taught me that nothing really ends; it just changes. We are all bodies of change. </p> | |||
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| title: A Woman Who Left Society to Live With Bears Weighs in on “Man or Bear” | |||
| url: https://bikepacking.com/plog/man-or-bear-debate/ | |||
| hash_url: cba1417ac2338abde14bb06d0a1f505d | |||
| archive_date: 2024-05-24 | |||
| og_image: https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck-Share_1.jpg | |||
| description: In this piece, long-term bicycle traveler Laura Killingbeck reflects on the "Man or Bear" debate and adds her unique perspective... | |||
| favicon: https://bikepacking.com/icon.svg?v=2 | |||
| language: en_US | |||
| <p>The “Man or Bear” debate recently went viral online, with women sharing their thoughts on whether they’d rather be stuck in the forest with a man or a bear. In this piece, long-term bicycle traveler Laura Killingbeck reflects on the question and adds her unique perspective to the conversation.</p> | |||
| <p>When I was 23, I packed up my bike and camping gear and caught a one-way flight to Alaska. My relationship with mankind no longer felt tenable. I didn’t want to be female in society; I wanted to be free. I spent the next three and a half months pedaling down North America’s grizzly-filled coast from Anchorage to San Francisco. Out there in that rugged expanse, with my body in motion and my heart unfurled, I found boundless joy. And that joy did make me a little more free. </p> | |||
| <a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-2000x1334.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="2000" height="1334" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-176872" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px" /></a> | |||
| <p>It wasn’t the first time I’d left on that kind of journey, nor would it be the last. <a href="https://www.laurasstories.live/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">I’ve spent most of my life</a> traveling open roads, seeking solace in nature, looking for the edges of myself and the world. When I was 18, I packed a bag and thumbed my way across Mexico. At 20, I pedaled alone around Iceland. I’ve now biked and hiked thousands of miles across the Americas, often solo. These trips have shaped and defined me. </p> | |||
| <p>When I’m out in nature, I become a body on nature’s terms, free from social context. This freedom also feels like security: I return home to my deepest self. </p> | |||
| <p>I’ve always loved men. I’ve always found it easy to get along with men, to travel with men, to befriend men. Many of the people I cherish most in this world are male. </p> | |||
| <a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176873" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_2.jpg 1776w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a> | |||
| <p>I’ve also spent most of my life trying to extract myself from patriarchy. I’ve had to learn how to say no to men, to protect myself from men, and get away from men in ways that have been crucial to my survival. I’ve had to learn how to trust my intuition, value my feelings, and claim my agency in ways that have defied “ladylike” behavior. I’ve done this through trial and error, dedicated study, and deep, often painful excavations of my own interior. I’ve gone to nature again and again to study what it feels like to be fully human.</p> | |||
| <p>One of my favorite writers, <a href="https://prentishemphill.com/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Prentis Hemphill</a>, wrote, “Boundaries are the distance at which I can love you and me simultaneously.” To love myself in patriarchy, I’ve often had to put a lot of distance between myself and men. </p> | |||
| <a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176875" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_4.jpg 1823w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a> | |||
| <p>There is nothing wrong with men. Men are lovable people with the same capacity for empathy, agency, and growth as any other human on the gender spectrum. But when men are socialized to identify their humanness as masculinity and to associate masculinity with power, we get some real problems. These are the problems of patriarchy. </p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://www.faculty.umb.edu/heike.schotten/readings/Johnson,%20Patriarchy%20the%20System.pdf" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Patriarchy is often defined</a> as a social system that is male-identified, male-dominated, and male-centered. It depends on a heteronormative gender binary that serves to <a href="https://voicemalemagazine.org/healthy-masculinity-is-oxymoronic/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">divide and outsource human traits to different halves of the population</a>.</p> | |||
| <p>In patriarchal societies, human traits associated with power and control are outsourced to men: domination, assertiveness, independence, decisiveness, and ambition are called masculine, and men are expected to conform to masculine traits. </p> | |||
| <ul class="thumblist-2col"> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176887" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_16-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176883" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_12-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p>Human traits associated with care and relationality are outsourced to women: empathy, nurturing, adaptation, and cooperation are called feminine, and women are expected to conform to feminine traits.</p> | |||
| <p>Sexism as an ideology is based on the belief that this division of traits is immutable and biologically mandated; therefore, it’s only “natural” that men inhabit positions of power while women serve caregiving roles. This is coupled with the belief that masculine traits are superior and more valuable, and feminine traits are inferior and less valuable. </p> | |||
| <a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176877" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_6.jpg 1776w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a> | |||
| <p><a href="https://www.acalltomen.org/healthy-manhood/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Symptoms of patriarchy</a> include gender-based violence, sexual harassment, toxic relationality, oppressive divisions of labor, gender-based pay gaps, and a nearly infinite list of large and small ways that power is continuously diverted to men, and men are socialized to identify with power and control over care and relationality. These symptoms have the most impact on women of color, Indigenous women, poor women, and people who inhabit multiple intersections of oppressed demographics. </p> | |||
| <p>Symptoms of patriarchy also include social patterns that are harmful to men, including male violence against other men, a higher risk of suicide, reduced quality of relationships, and a lower life expectancy. In a blog post for <a href="https://www.nextgenmen.ca/about" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Next Gen Men</a>, writer Veronika Ilich <a href="https://www.nextgenmen.ca/blog/why-patriarchy-hurts-men-too" rel="noopener" target="_blank">describes patriarchy</a> as “one of the single largest threats to men’s mental and physical health.”</p> | |||
| <p>Patriarchy has everything to do with men, <a href="https://www.nextgenmen.ca/blog/ending-gender-wars-dismantling-patriarchy-anti-male" rel="noopener" target="_blank">but at the same time, nothing at all</a>. In a male-centered society where maleness is associated with power, what’s really being centered is power itself. What’s suppressed is mutual relationality. Patriarchy is intertwined with colonialism, racism, and other oppressive social structures based on hierarchy. It is a fundamental fracturing of our human wholeness.</p> | |||
| <a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176874" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_3.jpg 1776w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a> | |||
| <p>Last year, I spent over <a href="https://www.laurasstories.live/all-blog-posts/gear-list-for-enigmas-odyssey-an-eight-month-bike-ride-across-the-us" rel="noopener" target="_blank">eight months on my bike</a>. I pedaled down the Pacific Coast, across the Southwest, and up the length of the Great Divide. I cooked food on my tiny twig stove and camped each night under the stars. I don’t know if I’ve ever been so happy. </p> | |||
| <p>One day in Colorado, I stopped at a thrift store. When I passed the jewelry section, a necklace caught my eye. It was a rose quartz heart on a silver chain. I picked it up. </p> | |||
| <ul class="thumblist-2col"> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176886" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_15-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176888" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_17-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p>Sometimes, people ask if I’m running from something–if all these miles are a retreat from the world. But when I saw the necklace, I saw the journey that I’ve been on. Nature has taught me to keep an open heart. I love this world, and I’ll do whatever it takes to be fully here. The reclamation of human wholeness is part of our shared legacy. We all belong to this conversation. </p> | |||
| <p>I have worn that heart necklace ever since, like a talisman.</p> | |||
| <h2>Man or Bear</h2> | |||
| <p>I don’t spend a huge amount of time surfing the web. But recently, so many people posted bear memes that even I got sucked into “Man or Bear,” a rowdy internet debate that seems to have spawned from <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@screenshothq/video/7356208240008498465?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc" rel="noopener" target="_blank">this viral Tik Tok video</a>. In the video, a man asks eight women if they’d rather be stuck in a forest with a man or a bear. Seven out of eight women said they’d prefer the bear. </p> | |||
| <a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-2000x1334.jpg" alt="2023 Tour Divide, Eddie Clark" width="2000" height="1334" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-151758" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023-Tour-Divide_EClark_4275_230624-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px" /></a> | |||
| <div class="caption">Photo by <a href="https://www.instagram.com/eddieclarkmedia/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Eddie Clark</a> from our <a href="/plog/2023-tour-divide-part-3/">2023 Tour Divide</a> coverage</div> | |||
| <p>This led to a long stream of commentary from women describing their fear of men and male violence. In turn, this commentary was met with a backlash from men expressing anger and deriding women’s responses. An <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/us/man-bear-safety-tiktok-question-cec/index.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">article published by CNN</a> gives a recap of the fray. </p> | |||
| <p>The original video now has over 18 million views and over 75,000 comments. It’s led to countless replica videos, social media posts, and memes. And it’s opened up a larger conversation about gender-based violence and what it means to feel safe in the world.</p> | |||
| <a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-2000x1333.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="2000" height="1333" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-176881" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-2000x1333.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_10-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px" /></a> | |||
| <p>I first read about this debate on my phone while camping in a field in my tent. It captivated me in a way that internet debates rarely do. Slowly, I realized why: for me, “Man or Bear” is not hypothetical. I’m literally a woman who left mankind behind to live in nature with bears. This is my actual life. </p> | |||
| <p>I’ve been writing about this choice for years in stories like “<a href="https://www.adventurecycling.org/blog/a-wild-female-human-creature/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">A Wild Female Human Creature</a>,” “<a href="https://www.adventurecycling.org/blog/biking-to-bears/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Biking to Bears</a>,” and “<a href="https://www.adventurecycling.org/blog/when-men-take-off-their-pants/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">When Men Take off Their Pants</a>.” I also wrote about it recently for <em>Bicycling</em> in my story “Into the Wind.” These stories often include anecdotes about the kindness of men and my relationships with men. They’re stories about human complexity. </p> | |||
| <h2>The Elephant in the Room is Not a Bear</h2> | |||
| <p>One of the ironies of going to nature to free myself from mankind is that I do actually meet a lot of men out here. I’ve also met a lot of bears, but not nearly as many bears as men. </p> | |||
| <p>It’s still relatively uncommon for women to travel alone in the backcountry. Last year on the Great Divide, I met lots of solo men, men in pairs, and a few women traveling with men, but only a couple of solo women. I’ve noticed similar gender demographics on most of my long-distance cycling and hiking trips in the backcountry. </p> | |||
| <ul class="thumblist-2col"> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176884" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_13-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176890" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_20-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p>The central reason why fewer women travel alone is our fear of male violence and sexual assault. Actually, the most common question I get about my travels is some version of, “<a href="https://www.adventurecycling.org/blog/arent-you-afraid-to-bike-alone/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Aren’t you afraid to bike/hike/travel alone as a woman?</a>” By naming my gender, the implication is clear. What people really mean is, “Aren’t you afraid of men?”</p> | |||
| <a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176878" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_7.jpg 1776w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a> | |||
| <p>This leads us straight back to the original conversation about “Man or Bear,” which has nothing to do with bears. (Sorry, bears!) “Would you rather be stuck in a forest with a man or a bear?” is just another way of asking, “Are you afraid of men?” It’s the same question I’ve been fielding for the entirety of my life as a solo female traveler. It’s the same question that hovers over women all the time as we move through the world. </p> | |||
| <p>And it’s a question that’s always been difficult for me to answer. I’m not afraid of all men. But I am afraid of some men. The real problem is the gray area in between and what it takes to manage the murkiness of that unknown. </p> | |||
| <h2>Stuck in the Forest With a Man</h2> | |||
| <p>When I’m alone in the backcountry and come across a man, I feel a very low level of vigilance. Depending on the situation, I might even be happy to see him. He’s a fellow human! Maybe we’ll be friends! I’m likely to smile genuinely and say hello. </p> | |||
| <p>I don’t feel afraid, but I am aware. As we chat, my intuition absorbs a thousand things at once. His body language. His tone. How he looks at me and interacts. Most of the time, this produces an increased sense of security. Most men are friendly, respect my boundaries, and don’t want to hurt me. Most of the time, I feel very safe around men. </p> | |||
| <p>But not all the time. Sometimes, my intuition absorbs things that increase my level of vigilance. My awareness shifts into closer observation, and I look for signs of danger. Nothing is wrong, but it could go wrong very quickly.</p> | |||
| <ul class="thumblist-2col"> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176882" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_11.jpg 1776w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| <li><a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176885" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_14-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| <p>It could be something he says. Maybe he makes a comment about my body or my appearance. Or he asks if I’m carrying a weapon and then presses for details about where I’m camping that night. Sometimes, it’s a shift in his tone, a leer, the way he puts his body in my space. But, usually, it’s a combination of things, a totality of behaviors that add up to a singular reality: this man is either not aware that he’s making me uncomfortable, or he doesn’t care. Either way, this is the danger zone. Even if he has no intention of harming me, the outcome of that intention is no longer possible for me to assess or predict. </p> | |||
| <p>In this moment, my mind snaps into a single, crystalline point of focus. My intuition rises to the surface of my skin. I become a creature of exquisite perception. The world is a matrix of emotional data: visceral, clear, direct. </p> | |||
| <p>I need to get away from the man. But I need to do it in a way that doesn’t anger him. This is the tricky bit. Men who lack social awareness or empathy often also lack other skills in emotional management. And usually, what men in these situations actually want is closeness. They’re trying to get <em>closer</em> to me, physically or emotionally, in the only way they know how. That combination of poor emotional skillsets and a desire to get closer is exactly what puts me in danger. </p> | |||
| <a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8-960x640.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="960" height="640" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-176879" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_8.jpg 1708w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a> | |||
| <p>If I deny his attempts at closeness by leaving or setting a boundary, he could feel frustrated, rejected, or ashamed. If he doesn’t know how to recognize or manage those feelings, he’s likely to experience them as anger. And then I’m a solo woman stuck in a forest with an angry man, which is exactly what women are most afraid of. </p> | |||
| <p>There’s no time to think, so I operate on instinct. My task is ridiculously complex. I need to deescalate any signs of aggression, guide the man into a state of emotional balance, and exit the situation safely, all at once. This process requires all of my attention, energy, and intellect. It’s really hard. </p> | |||
| <p>I’ve been in this position so many times that it exhausts me just to write about it. Sometimes, it’s not that I’m afraid of men; I’m just really, really tired. </p> | |||
| <h2>Stuck in the World With Patriarchy</h2> | |||
| <p>In patriarchal societies where masculinity is coded as power and control, men often try to get closer to women through power and control. The range of how this plays out is vast. It could be inconsequential, or it could end a woman’s life. This is why seemingly small comments, gestures, or implications often trigger full-body vigilance. It may also be a reason why so many women in the “Man or Bear” debate chose the bear. </p> | |||
| <p>If men truly disliked women, they’d be glad so many women chose the bear! Women who chose the bear would be (hypothetically) farther away from them. </p> | |||
| <a href="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9.jpg" class="media-img" ><img decoding="async" src="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-2000x1334.jpg" alt="Laura Killingbeck, Man or Bear" width="2000" height="1334" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-176880" srcset="https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-2000x1334.jpg 2000w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-960x640.jpg 960w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-512x341.jpg 512w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-768x512.jpg 768w, https://bikepacking.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Man-or-Bear-Laura-Killingbeck_9-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px" /></a> | |||
| <p>But lots of men were not glad; they were angry. And beneath that anger were probably lots of other feelings as well, the ones that patriarchy socializes men to mask: hurt, loss, frustration, sadness, loneliness. It’s sad when someone you want to be close to does not want to be close to you. It’s frustrating when you don’t know how to get that closeness. And it’s lonely. The angry men in this debate are very lonely men. </p> | |||
| <h2>A Return to Wholeness</h2> | |||
| <p>I believe that at the heart of this conversation–at the heart of most conversations–is a mutual quest for connection and wholeness. In all these years of wandering, this is what I have learned. </p> | |||
| <p>Sometimes, it’s hard to know where to end a story. But nature has taught me that nothing really ends; it just changes. We are all bodies of change. </p> | |||
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| <h1>Microsoft's new Windows 11 Recall is a privacy nightmare</h1> | |||
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| <p><img alt="Windows 11 Recall" src="https://www.bleepstatic.com/content/hl-images/2024/05/20/windows-11-recall.jpg"></p> | |||
| <p>Microsoft's announcement of the new AI-powered Windows 11 Recall feature has sparked a lot of concern, with many thinking that it has created massive privacy risks and a new attack vector that threat actors can exploit to steal data.</p> | |||
| <p>Revealed during a Monday AI event, the feature is designed to help "recall" information you have looked at in the past, making it easily accessible via a simple search.</p> | |||
| <p>While it's currently only available on Copilot+ PCs running Snapdragon X ARM processors, Microsoft says they are working with Intel and AMD to create compatible CPUs.</p> | |||
| <p>Recall works by taking a screenshot of your active window every few seconds, recording everything you do in Windows for up to three months by default.</p> | |||
| <p>These snapshots will be analyzed by the on-device Neural Processing Unit (NPU) and an AI model to extract data from the screenshot. The data will be saved in a semantic index, allowing Windows users to browse through the snapshot history or search using human language queries.</p> | |||
| <div> | |||
| <figure class="image"><img alt="Windows 11 Recall" src="https://www.bleepstatic.com/images/news/Microsoft/windows-11/r/recall/windows-11-recal.jpg"><figcaption><strong>Windows 11 Recall</strong></figcaption></figure></div> | |||
| <p>Microsoft says that all of this data is encrypted using BitLocker tied to the user's Windows account and is not shared with other users on the same device.</p> | |||
| <p>While this sounds fun and interesting, it immediately raised concerns about obvious privacy risks and whether Microsoft plans on gobbling up all of this data.</p> | |||
| <p>However, Microsoft says Recall has been designed so that all of the data is saved directly on the user's device in an encrypted format, providing users with complete control over the feature, including if it's enabled and what apps it can take screenshots of.</p> | |||
| <div class="fan_quote"> | |||
| <p>"Recall is a key part of what makes Copilot+ PCs special, and Microsoft built privacy into Recall's design from the ground up. On Copilot+ PCs powered by a Snapdragon® X Series processor, you will see the Recall taskbar icon after you first activate your device. You can use that icon to open Recall's settings and make choices about what snapshots Recall collects and stores on your device. You can limit which snapshots Recall collects; for example, you can select specific apps or websites visited in a supported browser to filter out of your snapshots. In addition, you can pause snapshots on demand from the Recall icon in the system tray, clear some or all snapshots that have been stored, or delete all the snapshots from your device."</p><p> | |||
| ❖ Microsoft</p></div> | |||
| <p>Microsoft also says it will not create screenshots of Microsoft Edge's InPrivate windows (and other Chromium-based browsers) or content protected by DRM. However, they have not confirmed whether other browser's private modes, like Firefox, will be supported.</p> | |||
| <p>In a Monday press event, Yusuf Mehdi, Corporate Vice President & Consumer Chief Marketing Officer, assured journalists that Microsoft is taking a very conservative approach with Recall.</p> | |||
| <p>"We're going to keep your Recall index private and local and secure on just the device," said Mehdi.</p> | |||
| <p>"We won't use any of that information to train any AI model, and we put you completely in control with the ability to edit and delete anything that is captured."</p> | |||
| <p>Furthermore, Microsoft also reiterated to BleepingComputer that data for Recall will only be available locally and not be stored in the cloud, with the company once again restating that "data is not accessed by Microsoft."</p> | |||
| <p>Microsoft has also started to share more technical details, such as <a href="https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/client-management/manage-recall#configure-policies-for-recall" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">group policies</a> that can be used to disable Recall company-wide and how end users can <a href="https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/privacy-and-control-over-your-recall-experience-d404f672-7647-41e5-886c-a3c59680af15" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">disable the feature</a>.</p> | |||
| <h2>Cybersecurity experts and regular users still concerned</h2> | |||
| <p>Microsoft's promises have not done much to reassure the cybersecurity community or its customers, with <a data-sk="tooltip_parent" data-stringify-link="https://x.com/BleepinComputer/status/1792631130983706926" delay="150" href="https://x.com/BleepinComputer/status/1792631130983706926" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">our tweet</a> regarding this new feature receiving over 90 comments, all negative.</p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://twitter.com/SchizoDuckie/status/1792640796333650342" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener"><img alt="Schizoduckie tweet" src="https://www.bleepstatic.com/images/news/Microsoft/windows-11/r/recall/security-concerns/schizo-tweet.jpg"></a></p> | |||
| <p>So, why are most cybersecurity experts, researchers, and analysts so worried about this feature?</p> | |||
| <p>First and foremost, large companies have a history of exploiting users' data for their own profit, making it <a data-sk="tooltip_parent" data-stringify-link="https://x.com/MegaMarian12350/status/1792642295814082659" delay="150" href="https://x.com/MegaMarian12350/status/1792642295814082659" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">hard for users to trust Microsoft</a> when they say they won't access the Recall data.</p> | |||
| <p>Users are not alone, as the United Kingdom's data protection agency, the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO), is also contacting Microsoft to ensure that users' data will be properly safeguarded and not used by the company.</p> | |||
| <p>"We expect organisations to be transparent with users about how their data is being used and only process personal data to the extent that it is necessary to achieve a specific purpose. Industry must consider data protection from the outset and rigorously assess and mitigate risks to peoples' rights and freedoms before bringing products to market," reads a <a href="https://ico.org.uk/about-the-ico/media-centre/news-and-blogs/2024/05/statement-in-response-to-microsoft-recall-feature/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">press statement</a> from the ICO.</p> | |||
| <p>"We are making enquiries with Microsoft to understand the safeguards in place to protect user privacy."</p> | |||
| <p>Even if we accept that Microsoft will not access Recall data, there are still massive security and privacy implications with this product.</p> | |||
| <p>Microsoft admits that the feature performs no content moderation, meaning it will gobble up anything it sees, including passwords in a password manager or your account numbers on your banking website.</p> | |||
| <p>Or if you are in Word, writing a confidential agreement, a screenshot of that content will be created, too. If you have a single PC and share it with others, then you may want to be careful about what pictures or videos you look at, as, guess what, those will be recorded as well.</p> | |||
| <p>Yes, you can block apps from being screenshotted by this feature, but most people will just let it run without mucking around with the feature's settings.</p> | |||
| <p>All of this information is now stored in Windows 11's semantic index and easily searchable by anyone with access to your PC, whether authorized or not.</p> | |||
| <p>That's just the tip of the iceberg, though.</p> | |||
| <p>If a threat actor or malware compromised your device, all of this data will already be decrypted by Bitlocker, making it accessible to the hacker. </p> | |||
| <p>For example, a threat actor or malware could simply steal a Recall database and upload it to their own servers for analysis. This information could then be used to extort users or potentially breach user's accounts if credentials were exposed.</p> | |||
| <p>Cybersecurity expert Kevin Beaumont, known to be an outspoken critic of Microsoft at times, also expressed concern about how this feature creates a massive attack surface, likening it to a keylogger "baked into Windows."</p> | |||
| <p>"If you look at what has happened historically with infostealer malware — malicious software snuck onto PCs — it has pivoted to automatically steal browser passwords stored locally," Beaumont explained in a <a href="https://doublepulsar.com/how-the-new-microsoft-recall-feature-fundamentally-undermines-windows-security-aa072829f218" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">new blog post</a>.</p> | |||
| <p>"In other words, if a malicious threat actor gains access to a system, they already steal important databases stored locally. They can just extend this to steal information recorded by Copilot's Recall feature."</p> | |||
| <p>And it's not only information-stealing malware, as enterprise-targeting malware like TrickBot had previously included modules that would<a href="https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/trickbot-now-steals-windows-active-directory-credentials/" target="_blank"> steal a domain's Active Directory database</a> for offline cracking of credentials. There is nothing to stop malware from taking a similar approach and stealing the Recall databases as well.</p> | |||
| <p>Microsoft has always taken the stance with vulnerabilities and attacks that once a device is compromised, all bets are off, and security boundaries are thrown out the window.</p> | |||
| <p>Basically, you got infected or fell for a social engineering attack, so it's your fault all these bad things will happen to you.</p> | |||
| <p>However, as Microsoft is one of, if not <strong>the</strong>, largest caretakers of consumer data and computing security, it seems irresponsible to introduce additional risk into an already risky environment.</p> | |||
| <p>While we can go on and on expressing how this feature is a massive privacy risk, I will instead leave you with this quote from <a href="https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2024/05/03/prioritizing-security-above-all-else/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Microsoft's recent pledge</a> to prioritize security above all else.</p> | |||
| <p>"If you're faced with the tradeoff between security and another priority, your answer is clear: <strong>Do security</strong>. In some cases, this will mean prioritizing security above other things we do, such as releasing new features or providing ongoing support for legacy systems," Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella said in an email to Microsoft employees.</p> | |||
| <p>"This is key to advancing both our platform quality and capability such that we can protect the digital estates of our customers and build a safer world for all."</p> | |||
| <p><em>Update 5/22/24: This article previously said Microsoft is working with Intel and AMD to make all Windows 11 devices compatible, when they are instead working with them to make compatible CPUs.</em></p> | |||
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| title: Microsoft's new Windows 11 Recall is a privacy nightmare | |||
| url: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/microsoft/microsofts-new-windows-11-recall-is-a-privacy-nightmare/ | |||
| hash_url: e1f6125fe416ecd26f2804cdab5cc571 | |||
| archive_date: 2024-05-24 | |||
| og_image: https://www.bleepstatic.com/content/hl-images/2024/05/20/windows-11-recall.jpg | |||
| description: Microsoft's announcement of the new AI-powered Windows 11 Recall feature has sparked a lot of concern, with many thinking that it has created massive privacy risks and a new attack vector that threat actors can exploit to steal data. | |||
| favicon: https://www.bleepstatic.com/favicon/bleeping.ico | |||
| language: en_us | |||
| <p><img alt="Windows 11 Recall" src="https://www.bleepstatic.com/content/hl-images/2024/05/20/windows-11-recall.jpg"></p> | |||
| <p>Microsoft's announcement of the new AI-powered Windows 11 Recall feature has sparked a lot of concern, with many thinking that it has created massive privacy risks and a new attack vector that threat actors can exploit to steal data.</p> | |||
| <p>Revealed during a Monday AI event, the feature is designed to help "recall" information you have looked at in the past, making it easily accessible via a simple search.</p> | |||
| <p>While it's currently only available on Copilot+ PCs running Snapdragon X ARM processors, Microsoft says they are working with Intel and AMD to create compatible CPUs.</p> | |||
| <p>Recall works by taking a screenshot of your active window every few seconds, recording everything you do in Windows for up to three months by default.</p> | |||
| <p>These snapshots will be analyzed by the on-device Neural Processing Unit (NPU) and an AI model to extract data from the screenshot. The data will be saved in a semantic index, allowing Windows users to browse through the snapshot history or search using human language queries.</p> | |||
| <div> | |||
| <figure class="image"><img alt="Windows 11 Recall" src="https://www.bleepstatic.com/images/news/Microsoft/windows-11/r/recall/windows-11-recal.jpg"><figcaption><strong>Windows 11 Recall</strong></figcaption></figure></div> | |||
| <p>Microsoft says that all of this data is encrypted using BitLocker tied to the user's Windows account and is not shared with other users on the same device.</p> | |||
| <p>While this sounds fun and interesting, it immediately raised concerns about obvious privacy risks and whether Microsoft plans on gobbling up all of this data.</p> | |||
| <p>However, Microsoft says Recall has been designed so that all of the data is saved directly on the user's device in an encrypted format, providing users with complete control over the feature, including if it's enabled and what apps it can take screenshots of.</p> | |||
| <div class="fan_quote"> | |||
| <p>"Recall is a key part of what makes Copilot+ PCs special, and Microsoft built privacy into Recall's design from the ground up. On Copilot+ PCs powered by a Snapdragon® X Series processor, you will see the Recall taskbar icon after you first activate your device. You can use that icon to open Recall's settings and make choices about what snapshots Recall collects and stores on your device. You can limit which snapshots Recall collects; for example, you can select specific apps or websites visited in a supported browser to filter out of your snapshots. In addition, you can pause snapshots on demand from the Recall icon in the system tray, clear some or all snapshots that have been stored, or delete all the snapshots from your device."</p><p> | |||
| ❖ Microsoft</p></div> | |||
| <p>Microsoft also says it will not create screenshots of Microsoft Edge's InPrivate windows (and other Chromium-based browsers) or content protected by DRM. However, they have not confirmed whether other browser's private modes, like Firefox, will be supported.</p> | |||
| <p>In a Monday press event, Yusuf Mehdi, Corporate Vice President & Consumer Chief Marketing Officer, assured journalists that Microsoft is taking a very conservative approach with Recall.</p> | |||
| <p>"We're going to keep your Recall index private and local and secure on just the device," said Mehdi.</p> | |||
| <p>"We won't use any of that information to train any AI model, and we put you completely in control with the ability to edit and delete anything that is captured."</p> | |||
| <p>Furthermore, Microsoft also reiterated to BleepingComputer that data for Recall will only be available locally and not be stored in the cloud, with the company once again restating that "data is not accessed by Microsoft."</p> | |||
| <p>Microsoft has also started to share more technical details, such as <a href="https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/client-management/manage-recall#configure-policies-for-recall" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">group policies</a> that can be used to disable Recall company-wide and how end users can <a href="https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/privacy-and-control-over-your-recall-experience-d404f672-7647-41e5-886c-a3c59680af15" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">disable the feature</a>.</p> | |||
| <h2>Cybersecurity experts and regular users still concerned</h2> | |||
| <p>Microsoft's promises have not done much to reassure the cybersecurity community or its customers, with <a data-sk="tooltip_parent" data-stringify-link="https://x.com/BleepinComputer/status/1792631130983706926" delay="150" href="https://x.com/BleepinComputer/status/1792631130983706926" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">our tweet</a> regarding this new feature receiving over 90 comments, all negative.</p> | |||
| <p><a href="https://twitter.com/SchizoDuckie/status/1792640796333650342" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener"><img alt="Schizoduckie tweet" src="https://www.bleepstatic.com/images/news/Microsoft/windows-11/r/recall/security-concerns/schizo-tweet.jpg"></a></p> | |||
| <p>So, why are most cybersecurity experts, researchers, and analysts so worried about this feature?</p> | |||
| <p>First and foremost, large companies have a history of exploiting users' data for their own profit, making it <a data-sk="tooltip_parent" data-stringify-link="https://x.com/MegaMarian12350/status/1792642295814082659" delay="150" href="https://x.com/MegaMarian12350/status/1792642295814082659" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">hard for users to trust Microsoft</a> when they say they won't access the Recall data.</p> | |||
| <p>Users are not alone, as the United Kingdom's data protection agency, the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO), is also contacting Microsoft to ensure that users' data will be properly safeguarded and not used by the company.</p> | |||
| <p>"We expect organisations to be transparent with users about how their data is being used and only process personal data to the extent that it is necessary to achieve a specific purpose. Industry must consider data protection from the outset and rigorously assess and mitigate risks to peoples' rights and freedoms before bringing products to market," reads a <a href="https://ico.org.uk/about-the-ico/media-centre/news-and-blogs/2024/05/statement-in-response-to-microsoft-recall-feature/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">press statement</a> from the ICO.</p> | |||
| <p>"We are making enquiries with Microsoft to understand the safeguards in place to protect user privacy."</p> | |||
| <p>Even if we accept that Microsoft will not access Recall data, there are still massive security and privacy implications with this product.</p> | |||
| <p>Microsoft admits that the feature performs no content moderation, meaning it will gobble up anything it sees, including passwords in a password manager or your account numbers on your banking website.</p> | |||
| <p>Or if you are in Word, writing a confidential agreement, a screenshot of that content will be created, too. If you have a single PC and share it with others, then you may want to be careful about what pictures or videos you look at, as, guess what, those will be recorded as well.</p> | |||
| <p>Yes, you can block apps from being screenshotted by this feature, but most people will just let it run without mucking around with the feature's settings.</p> | |||
| <p>All of this information is now stored in Windows 11's semantic index and easily searchable by anyone with access to your PC, whether authorized or not.</p> | |||
| <p>That's just the tip of the iceberg, though.</p> | |||
| <p>If a threat actor or malware compromised your device, all of this data will already be decrypted by Bitlocker, making it accessible to the hacker. </p> | |||
| <p>For example, a threat actor or malware could simply steal a Recall database and upload it to their own servers for analysis. This information could then be used to extort users or potentially breach user's accounts if credentials were exposed.</p> | |||
| <p>Cybersecurity expert Kevin Beaumont, known to be an outspoken critic of Microsoft at times, also expressed concern about how this feature creates a massive attack surface, likening it to a keylogger "baked into Windows."</p> | |||
| <p>"If you look at what has happened historically with infostealer malware — malicious software snuck onto PCs — it has pivoted to automatically steal browser passwords stored locally," Beaumont explained in a <a href="https://doublepulsar.com/how-the-new-microsoft-recall-feature-fundamentally-undermines-windows-security-aa072829f218" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">new blog post</a>.</p> | |||
| <p>"In other words, if a malicious threat actor gains access to a system, they already steal important databases stored locally. They can just extend this to steal information recorded by Copilot's Recall feature."</p> | |||
| <p>And it's not only information-stealing malware, as enterprise-targeting malware like TrickBot had previously included modules that would<a href="https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/trickbot-now-steals-windows-active-directory-credentials/" target="_blank"> steal a domain's Active Directory database</a> for offline cracking of credentials. There is nothing to stop malware from taking a similar approach and stealing the Recall databases as well.</p> | |||
| <p>Microsoft has always taken the stance with vulnerabilities and attacks that once a device is compromised, all bets are off, and security boundaries are thrown out the window.</p> | |||
| <p>Basically, you got infected or fell for a social engineering attack, so it's your fault all these bad things will happen to you.</p> | |||
| <p>However, as Microsoft is one of, if not <strong>the</strong>, largest caretakers of consumer data and computing security, it seems irresponsible to introduce additional risk into an already risky environment.</p> | |||
| <p>While we can go on and on expressing how this feature is a massive privacy risk, I will instead leave you with this quote from <a href="https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2024/05/03/prioritizing-security-above-all-else/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Microsoft's recent pledge</a> to prioritize security above all else.</p> | |||
| <p>"If you're faced with the tradeoff between security and another priority, your answer is clear: <strong>Do security</strong>. In some cases, this will mean prioritizing security above other things we do, such as releasing new features or providing ongoing support for legacy systems," Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella said in an email to Microsoft employees.</p> | |||
| <p>"This is key to advancing both our platform quality and capability such that we can protect the digital estates of our customers and build a safer world for all."</p> | |||
| <p><em>Update 5/22/24: This article previously said Microsoft is working with Intel and AMD to make all Windows 11 devices compatible, when they are instead working with them to make compatible CPUs.</em></p> | |||
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| <li><a href="/david/cache/2024/790f724c45b26de460f9eeac04d48884/" title="Accès à l’article dans le cache local : carnet d'archéologue">carnet d'archéologue</a> (<a href="https://www.la-grange.net/2024/01/22/carnet" title="Accès à l’article original distant : carnet d'archéologue">original</a>)</li> | |||
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| <li><a href="/david/cache/2024/291cddda62f18ec9355ec98761b7e9d9/" title="Accès à l’article dans le cache local : Writing with AI">Writing with AI</a> (<a href="https://ia.net/topics/writing-with-ai" title="Accès à l’article original distant : Writing with AI">original</a>)</li> | |||
| <li><a href="/david/cache/2024/b1099381931e530393ab2740d48ae1ef/" title="Accès à l’article dans le cache local : The Lunacy of Artemis (Idle Words)">The Lunacy of Artemis (Idle Words)</a> (<a href="https://idlewords.com/2024/5/the_lunacy_of_artemis.htm" title="Accès à l’article original distant : The Lunacy of Artemis (Idle Words)">original</a>)</li> | |||
| <li><a href="/david/cache/2024/20d288eb47779c4f1b3f36fb86aa7108/" title="Accès à l’article dans le cache local : File over app - Steph Ango">File over app - Steph Ango</a> (<a href="https://stephango.com/file-over-app" title="Accès à l’article original distant : File over app - Steph Ango">original</a>)</li> | |||
| <li><a href="/david/cache/2024/10d2718395313e94f45ab8484bfc8d86/" title="Accès à l’article dans le cache local : Why I’m Not Writing a Productivity Series">Why I’m Not Writing a Productivity Series</a> (<a href="https://jacobian.org/2024/apr/4/not-writing-about-productivity/" title="Accès à l’article original distant : Why I’m Not Writing a Productivity Series">original</a>)</li> | |||
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| <li><a href="/david/cache/2024/865fc8257c3ca8577312b09ee24d4c6d/" title="Accès à l’article dans le cache local : am i actually autistic?">am i actually autistic?</a> (<a href="https://winnielim.org/journal/am-i-actually-autistic/" title="Accès à l’article original distant : am i actually autistic?">original</a>)</li> | |||
| <li><a href="/david/cache/2024/8672047b982b09475a59605ed0f9a011/" title="Accès à l’article dans le cache local : The deskilling of web dev is harming the product but, more importantly, it's damaging our health">The deskilling of web dev is harming the product but, more importantly, it's damaging our health</a> (<a href="https://www.baldurbjarnason.com/2024/the-deskilling-of-web-dev-is-harming-us-all/" title="Accès à l’article original distant : The deskilling of web dev is harming the product but, more importantly, it's damaging our health">original</a>)</li> | |||
| <li><a href="/david/cache/2024/4bda7c6500950716846bdeb6bddbafed/" title="Accès à l’article dans le cache local : Hardest Problem in Computer Science: Centering Things">Hardest Problem in Computer Science: Centering Things</a> (<a href="https://tonsky.me/blog/centering/" title="Accès à l’article original distant : Hardest Problem in Computer Science: Centering Things">original</a>)</li> | |||
| <li><a href="/david/cache/2024/cd2fda3dae5d89990f73fbdaa1c3b491/" title="Accès à l’article dans le cache local : build a world, not an audience">build a world, not an audience</a> (<a href="https://keningzhu.com/journal/build-a-world-not-an-audience" title="Accès à l’article original distant : build a world, not an audience">original</a>)</li> | |||
| <li><a href="/david/cache/2024/34b4deffee5820ed20c6e57d6c0ee000/" title="Accès à l’article dans le cache local : Why Your Wi-Fi Router Doubles as an Apple AirTag">Why Your Wi-Fi Router Doubles as an Apple AirTag</a> (<a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/2024/05/why-your-wi-fi-router-doubles-as-an-apple-airtag/" title="Accès à l’article original distant : Why Your Wi-Fi Router Doubles as an Apple AirTag">original</a>)</li> | |||
| </ul> | |||
| </main> | |||
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