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4 yıl önce
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  1. title: Collapse OS - Why?
  2. url: https://collapseos.org/why.html
  3. hash_url: 91abf4fee00beb5a5e26171bf7c70312
  4. <p>
  5. I expect our global supply chain to collapse before we reach 2030. With this
  6. collapse, we won't be able to produce most of our electronics because it
  7. depends on a very complex supply chain that we won't be able to achieve again
  8. for decades (ever?).
  9. </p>
  10. <p>
  11. The fast rate of progress we've seen since the advent of electronics happened
  12. in very specific conditions that won't be there post-collapse, so we can't hope
  13. to be able to bootstrap new electronic technology as fast we did without a good
  14. "starter kit" to help us do so.
  15. </p>
  16. <p>
  17. Electronics yield enormous power, a power that will give significant advantages
  18. to communities that manage to continue mastering it. This will usher a new age
  19. of <em>scavenger electronics</em>: parts can't be manufactured any more, but we
  20. have billions of parts lying around. Those who can manage to create new designs
  21. from those parts with low-tech tools will be very powerful.
  22. </p>
  23. <p>
  24. Among these scavenged parts are microcontrollers, which are especially powerful
  25. but need complex tools (often computers) to program them. Computers, after a
  26. couple of decades, will break down beyond repair and we won't be able to
  27. program microcontrollers any more.
  28. </p>
  29. <p>
  30. To avoid this fate, we need to have a system that can be designed from
  31. scavenged parts and program microcontrollers. We also need the generation of
  32. engineers that will follow us to be able to <em>create</em> new designs instead
  33. of inheriting a legacy of machines that they can't recreate and barely
  34. maintain.
  35. </p>
  36. <p>
  37. This is where Collapse OS comes in.
  38. </p>
  39. <h2>Open questions</h2>
  40. <h3>Futile?</h3>
  41. <p>
  42. This project is only relevant if the collapse is of a specific magnitude. A
  43. weak-enough collapse and it's useless (just a few fabs that close down, a
  44. few wars here and there, hunger, disease, but people are nevertheless able
  45. to maintain current technology levels). A big enough collapse and it's even
  46. more useless (who needs microcontrollers when you're running away from
  47. cannibals).
  48. </p>
  49. <p>
  50. But if the collapse magnitude is right, then this project will change the
  51. course of our history, which makes it worth trying.
  52. </p>
  53. <p>
  54. This idea is also fragile because it might not be feasible. It's difficult
  55. to predict post-collapse conditions, so the "self-contained" part might fail
  56. and prove useless to many post-collapse communities.
  57. </p>
  58. <p>
  59. But nevertheless, this idea seems too powerful to not try it. And even if it
  60. proves futile, it's a lot of fun to try.
  61. </p>
  62. <h3>32-bit? 16-bit?</h3>
  63. <p>
  64. Why go as far as 8-bit machines? There are some 32-bit ARM chips around that
  65. are protoboard-friendly.
  66. </p>
  67. <p>
  68. First, because I think there are more scavenge-friendly 8-bit chips around than
  69. scavenge-friendly 16-bit or 32-bit chips.
  70. </p><p>
  71. Second, because those chips will be easier to replicate in a post-collapse fab.
  72. The z80 has 9000 transistors. 9000! Compared to the millions we have in any
  73. modern CPU, that's nothing! If the first chips we're able to create
  74. post-collapse have a low transistor count, we might as well design a system
  75. that works well on simpler chips.
  76. </p>
  77. <p>
  78. That being said, nothing stops the project from including the capability of
  79. programming an ARM or RISC-V chip.
  80. </p>
  81. <h3>Prior art</h3>
  82. <p>
  83. I've spent some time doing software archeology and see if something that was
  84. already made could be used. There are some really nice and well-made programs
  85. out there, such as CP/M, but as far as I know (please, let me know if I'm wrong,
  86. I don't know this world very well), these old OS weren't made to be
  87. self-replicating. CP/M is now open source, but I don't think we can recompile
  88. CP/M from CP/M.
  89. </p>
  90. <p>
  91. Then comes the idea of piggy-backing from an existing BASIC interpreter and
  92. make a shell out of it. Interesting idea, and using Grant Searle's modified
  93. nascom basic would be a good starting point, but I see two problems with this.
  94. First, the interpreter is already 8k. That's a lot. Second, it's
  95. copyright-ladden (by Searle *and* Microsoft) and can't be licensed as open
  96. source.
  97. </p>
  98. <p>
  99. Nah, maybe I'm working needlessly, but I'll start from scratch. But if someone
  100. has a hint about useful prior art, please let me know.
  101. </p>
  102. <h3>On what basis do you believe that a collapse of the global supply chain is
  103. probable by 2030?</h3>
  104. <p>
  105. First of all, this is a belief, not knowledge. Science cannot prove that we
  106. are likely to collapse. Science cannot prove that we are unlikely to collapse.
  107. </p>
  108. <p>
  109. What made me turn to the "yup, we're fucked" camp was "Comment tout peut
  110. s'effondrer" by Pablo Servigne, Éditions du Seuil, 2015. It's not perfect,
  111. but is a very good introductory book, well written, pleasing to read (except for
  112. the existential sinking feeling). For french-impaired fellows, you can look
  113. Servigne up on youtube, some of his talks are subtitled in english. Otherwise,
  114. you can also learn french. Then, from that read, you simply tumble down the
  115. rabbit's nest.
  116. </p>
  117. <p>
  118. That being said, I don't consider it unreasonable to not believe that collapse
  119. is likely to happen by 2030, so please, don't feel attacked by my beliefs.
  120. </p>