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  1. title: Strong Opinions, Weakly Held
  2. url: http://bobsutton.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/07/strong_opinions.html
  3. hash_url: c804a7d9f07b6005718f1de0a577e744
  4. <p class="MsoNormal"><span>I’ve been pretty
  5. obsessed about the difference between smart people and wise people for
  6. years. I tried to write a book called
  7. “The Attitude of Wisdom” a couple times. And the virtues of wise people – those
  8. who have the courage to act on their knowledge, but the humility to doubt what
  9. they know – is one of the main themes in Hard Facts. We show how leaders including Xerox’s Ann
  10. Mulcahy, Intel’s Any Grove, Harrah’s
  11. Gary Loveman, and IDEO’s David Kelley
  12. turn this attitude into organizational action. Perhaps the best description I’ve ever seen of how wise people act comes
  13. from the amazing folks at<a href="http://www.iftf.org/index.html"> Palo Alto’s
  14. Institute for the Future.</a> A couple
  15. years ago, I was talking the Institute’s <a href="http://www.iftf.org/people/bjohansen.html">Bob Johansen </a> about wisdom, and he explained that – to deal
  16. with an uncertain future and still move forward – they advise people to have “strong
  17. opinions, which are weakly held.”  They've been giving this advice for years, and I understand that it was first developed by Instituite Director <a href="http://www.saffo.com/">Paul Saffo</a>.  Bob
  18. explained that weak opinions are problematic because people aren’t inspired to
  19. develop the best arguments possible for them, or to put forth the energy
  20. required to test them. Bob explained that it was just as important, however, to
  21. not be too attached to what you believe because, otherwise, it undermines your
  22. ability to “see” and “hear” evidence that clashes with your opinions. This is what psychologists sometimes call the
  23. problem of “confirmation bias.”</p>